SOXX fell 22.1% in July and took in a record 6.92 billion of net inflows the same month. first half of the year was 7.75 billion total, so July alone nearly matched six months. that is not capitulation, that is people buying a drawdown with both hands. leveraged version of that is a very different risk profile though, size accordingly.
Louis_t
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quiet period ended yesterday and there is 69.4 trillion won of net cash sitting on the balance sheet. market is front running the buyback announcement, already +6% so part of the news is in. still adding a starter, that cash pile is the floor.
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spacex prints its first ever public quarter tonight, then 911.5m shares unlock thursday, about 116b worth. it was 108.37 on friday against a 231 to 236 street target. two hard dates in three days is not a valuation debate, it is a supply test. staying in cash until friday 🫡
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intel foundry still lost 2.1 billion last quarter and they raised 2026 capex to over 20 billion anyway. group operating margin did flip positive though, and eps came in at 42 cents against 22 expected. i hold a small position as a turnaround lottery ticket, not as my semiconductor exposure
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qqq back near highs going into the busiest earnings week of the year. tesla and google tonight, msft and meta next week. this is the bellwether so how it holds after these prints tells you a lot about the tape. staying long but with tight stops
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Goldman just doubled the SanDisk target to 2,200 on NAND tightness. the numbers are getting silly but the supply story runs into 2027. small position, tight leash, this thing moves 10% on a random Tuesday
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Memory Went +27% Then Got Dumped 8% Two Days Later. This Is What a Crowded Trade Feels Like.
If you have whiplash, you are not alone. SK Hynix ripped 27% on Tuesday and then got dumped hard on Wednesday, down high single digits, dragging Micron down around 8% and SanDisk with it. Same stocks,...
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SK Hynix Fell 15% Monday and Rose 27% Tuesday. If You Panic-Sold, This Week Cost You.
Two sessions. Down 15% on Monday, up 27% on Tuesday. That is the memory trade in a nutshell right now, and it is exactly why panic-selling violent flushes in a structural bull market is the most expen...
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SK Hynix Just Had Its Worst Day Ever. Is the Memory Supercycle Over, or Is This the Golden Pit?
Four days ago SK Hynix debuted in the US to a hero's welcome. Today its Korean shares fell 15%, the worst single day in the company's history, KOSPI tripped a circuit breaker with a 9% drop, and the w...
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SK Hynix Just Pulled Off the Biggest Foreign IPO in US History. The Memory Bull Case Is No Longer a Debate.
Two weeks ago the crowd was calling a top on memory and dumping it into a bear market. On Friday SK Hynix priced its US ADRs at 149 dollars, opened at 170 for a 14% pop, and raised 26.5 billion dollar...
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Memory Was a Bear Market on Tuesday. It Roared Back by Friday. The Dip Was a Gift.
Two days ago I was writing about memory falling into a bear market, down more than 20% from the highs, everyone calling the top. Then chips ripped. The semis index jumped 5%, Micron recovered toward 9...
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Memory Stopped Falling Right Before the Biggest Memory IPO of the Year. Coincidence?
After a brutal week that dragged memory into a bear market, the group quietly stabilised today. Micron closed at 948, off the lows, and SanDisk swung a wild intraday range but held. The timing is not ...
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Memory Just Fell Into a Bear Market the Same Week Samsung Printed a Record. Read That Twice
Memory is officially in a bear market. Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix are all down more than 20% from their highs, and the chip complex has shed roughly 1.5 trillion dollars in market value since June 2...
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Samsung Just Printed $58B in One Quarter. Here Is What It Means for Every Memory Name You Hold
Samsung released preliminary Q2 guidance today: operating profit around 89 trillion Korean won, which converts to roughly 58 billion dollars. That is up about 1,810 percent year over year, the highest...
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SK Hynix Is About to Do the Biggest Foreign IPO in US History. That Tells You Where Memory Is Going
Everyone panicked when memory washed out double digits last week. Then SK Hynix files to raise about 29 billion dollars on the Nasdaq this Friday, the largest foreign listing in US history, bigger tha...
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Memory Just Puked 11% in Two Days. Here Is What I Actually Did
Two days, down about 11% across the memory names. Micron broke a thousand dollars and closed at 975, Sandisk swung four hundred dollars intraday and still finished down 13%. My account was not fun to ...
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The Memory Supercycle Just Hit Its First Real Test
Micron capped a quarter that people will study for years, and the market rewarded it by knocking the stock down 8%. If you only read the price action you would think something broke. Nothing did. This...
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$Corning(GLW.US) quietly sitting at record highs after locking in that multi billion Amazon fiber deal for AI data centers. the picks and shovels plays are eating good this cycle. optical fiber is the boring backbone of the whole AI buildout and nobody talks about it 🔌
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$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) quietly up 3 percent while everyone watches the big names. UBS and Cantor both raised targets on the CXL story, small dividend coming next week too. underrated AI infra play imo, been slowly accumulating
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the number that actually matters isnt the revenue, its the 84.6% gross margin and the ~86% guide. memory was always the cyclical dog of semis, low margin, boom-bust. if MU can hold mid-80s margins because AI HBM is sold out, this stops being a cycle stock and starts re-rating like a structural winner. that 100B of contracted revenue across 16 customers is the part i keep rereading.
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Micron FQ3 Preview: Five Numbers That Decide Whether $1,200 Holds
You know why Micron jumped roughly 7% to its first ever close above $1,200, just two days before earnings? Because the market is no longer pricing Micron as a cyclical commodity chipmaker. It is prici...
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The Memory Cycle Looks Different This Time, and That Is Exactly the Trap
Memory has always been the most brutal corner of semis. Boom, glut, crash, repeat. So when people tell me "this time is different", my ears go up, in both directions. A quick history lesson For thirty...
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$SpaceX(SPCX.US) first dip and my finger already hovering the buy button. Starship cadence is the whole thesis, one red candle changes nothing
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Oracle holding steady, the cloud and AI capacity story keeps it bid even on red tape days. slow but steady, i like names that dont panic
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RKLB getting added to the Nasdaq 100, that is the kind of milestone that reprices a stock. small cap space going properly mainstream now