Context
Uber Technologies Inc. $Uber Tech(UBER.US) is trading at $66.70, presenting a fascinating disconnect between its highly profitable core business and Wall Street’s anxiety over the future of autonomous vehicles (AVs). While the stock has pulled back roughly 28% from its highs and underperformed the broader market this year, its underlying financials are stronger than ever.
• The Financial Engine: Trailing 12-month free cash flow has crossed a milestone $10 billion. Gross bookings have maintained consistent 20%+ year-over-year growth.
• The Valuation Reset: Thanks to the recent stock drop, Uber’s forward P/E multiple compressed significantly to around 15.9x, making it surprisingly affordable for a tech giant growing operating income at over 30%.
My trade
• Action: Buy UBER equity at or below current levels ($66.50–$68.00).
• Position Sizing: Core growth holding (3% of a diversified portfolio).
• Risk Management: If options volatility spikes further leading up to Nov 4th, selling out-of-the-money puts (e.g., $60 strike) to collect premium and potentially acquire more shares at an even steeper discount is a highly attractive secondary play.
Takeaway
Wall Street is mispricing the autonomous threat. Building a fleet of robotaxis is an expensive, localized hardware challenge; aggregating demand, managing routing, and maintaining customer loyalty via a cross-selling super-app (like Uber One) is a network effect challenge.
Uber already owns the global consumer relationship. Even if autonomous fleets scale rapidly, AV operators will still need to plug into Uber’s marketplace to achieve profitable vehicle utilization rates. At under 16x forward earnings, you are essentially buying a highly profitable tech monopoly at a discount, getting its massive autonomous optionality entirely for free.






