lyhalfway

Over the past few days, both MSTR and BMNR have fallen a lot. BTC breaking below 60k and ETH breaking below 1.6k are of course the main reasons, but the two DATs have fallen even more, which means their premiums have compressed further. I believe the primary cause is STRC's significant de-pegging to 70+, deviating too much from the 100 target price without recovery for a long time, reflecting the market's extremely low confidence in MSTR's credit premium. I'll try to analyze why this is happening.Since STRC started increasing volume in March '26, it has already raised 10 billion for MSTR to hoard coins. Its financing logic has also become "STRC issues more to hoard coins, MSTR issues more to pay interest." The implied meaning is that Saylor prioritizes the interests of STRC preferred shareholders, covering STRC's high dividends through MSTR issuance, and using dividend adjustments to anchor STRC at a price of 100. This logic worked well before, until May when Saylor sold 32 BTC. With insufficient cash reserves, the market began to worry that MSTR lacked the ability to pay interest and would sell coins to cover it. To quell market concerns, Saylor proposed that selling coins is fine, as long as the per-share coin holding increases. But the market didn't buy it. What followed was a continuous decline in MSTR's premium, STRC falling to 90/80/70, and BTC breaking below 60k.I believe from this point on, Saylor's market expectation management has gone wrong. The management of the three expectations—STRC at 100, per-share coin holding, and BTC holdings—is very delicate. It's fine during a bull cycle, but in a bear market, it's almost an impossible trinity. Maintaining per-share coin holding means MSTR cannot be issued at a low premium. With limited cash, how can the interest rights of STRC creditors be guaranteed? So STRC holders voted with their feet, driving the price down to 70+. According to the original plan, Saylor could fix STRC at 100 by adjusting the interest rate. But currently, with limited cash, financing closed, and needing to raise rates further, the market would be even more skeptical of your ability to pay interest.This is like a juggler in a circus throwing balls into the air. Keeping one or two balls from falling isn't hard, but keeping three balls from falling simultaneously requires great skill. Therefore, to restore confidence in STRC and prove Saylor's ability to pay interest, the other two expectations must be broken: either issue MSTR at a low premium (damaging per-share coin holding) or sell coins (damaging the coin-hoarding expectation).As for BMNR, over the past week, mNAV has fallen to 0.85, a historical low. The logic is the same. Doubts about confidence in STRC will spread to all DAT business models; they're all grasshoppers tied to the same rope. Although BMNR has no debt and ETH staking provides interest-paying capability, the market doesn't care. It's a blanket sell-off now.$ Strategy(MSTR.US)$ Microstrategy Inc Pref Shares STRC 9(STRC.US)$ BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

$ Microsoft(MSFT.US) Nadella published a lengthy article, the core idea of which is that "in the AI era, corporate competition is not about choosing the best model, but about whether one can establish a sustainable, compounding learning loop." That is to say, can you replace the general-purpose model while preserving the organization's unique accumulated learning?For enterprise AI operating systems, selling the loop is better than selling tokens.After reading the whole article, my feeling is, isn't this exactly the value that PLTR has been creating all along?$ Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

The text of the Clarity Act regarding "staked yield" has been released, prohibiting stablecoins from directly generating interest, but allowing activities to generate yield.It is highly likely that the Banking Committee bill will be reviewed in the second week of May. If passed smoothly, the next step is to merge it with the version passed by the Agriculture Committee in January, followed by votes in the House and Senate, and then sent to the White House for legislation in August.The legislative agenda and timeline are very tight, but this is how bipartisan legislation works; it always gets dragged to the last must-pass moment.$ Coinbase(COIN.US)$ Circle(CRCL.US)$ Strategy(MSTR.US)$ BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

BTC is gradually stabilizing around 80000, with data showing real buying support. However, ETH has been unable to break through 2.4k and has been hovering around 2.3k for so long. Why is this? My view:1. The current market is in a phase of "bottom repair + policy expectations," where funds prefer BTC during this stage.2. ETH's positive catalysts rely more on "second-order confirmation." CLARITY benefits ETH more than BTC, but there is no formal markup schedule yet. The market will first treat CLARITY as a "crypto overall positive" and prioritize BTC.During the bear-to-bull market transition, BTC usually rises first, while ETH often lags. ETH's catch-up rally requires two conditions:- BTC must not fall back and must maintain a high-level sideways consolidation.- The market shifts from "buying the safest crypto beta" to "buying higher beta / assets with higher utility."The market is not yet trading "actual utility post-approval," but only trading "increased probability of approval."BTC gets reduced regulatory risk from CLARITY.ETH gets clearer application boundaries for stablecoins, DeFi, RWA, tokenization, and staking from CLARITY.The latter has greater value but is also more complex, hence slower pricing.$ IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US)$ BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)$ Strategy(MSTR.US)

$ SpaceX(SPCX.US) Think of SPCX as the ship that explored the New World during the Age of Discovery. By analogy, investors buying at a premium now are like the royal nobles who funded Columbus back then.

$ iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF(IGV.US) I think IGV has bottomed out. Earnings season is coming soon, and the actual business impact of Anthropic's products will be proven by the earnings.$ Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)$ CloudFlare(NET.US)

Elon Musk: ”I want to take anyone who wants to be beyond the solar system. I want to take you there. you. literally you. to the moon. to mars. to beyond.“$SpaceX(SPCX.US)

The ETH/BTC ratio has almost unknowingly rebounded to its recent high in January. Since the war in the Middle East began, it has been more resilient to negative news and risen more on positive news, already outperforming BTC.$ IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US)$ iShares Staked Ethereum ETF(ETHB.US)

Observations on Crypto Compliance Regulation