lyhalfway

PLTR's earnings report continued its streak of beating expectations for 10 consecutive quarters, with strong growth in US customers and the launch of AI FDE on the product side, achieving a peak in revenue per employee in the US market. There's nothing to worry about fundamentally. I'd like to discuss the phenomenon I've observed from the perspective of institutional holdings and capital rotation:Starting from Q1, PLTR's institutional holding ratio stabilized after nearly five years of growth and saw a significant decline in Q2. This coincided with the suppression of software stock valuations since early '26 and the continuous surge in AI hardware like storage. The decline in PLTR's institutional holdings also represents active funds reducing their weight and allocation to the software sector. In terms of trading volume, last year TSLA, NVDA, and PLTR were regulars in the top 5 for trading volume. Now, the top trading volume spots have become Micron and SanDisk. If the market was still skeptical in Q1, then by Q2 institutions had already started to FOMO. At the same time, as the market capitalization of the storage hardware sector grew, it also increased the companies' weight in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. During the next index rebalancing, this will bring more passive index-following capital inflows. Once this sector trend is established, it won't be easily reversed. Against this backdrop, even the best performance by individual software stocks is placed in a challenging context. This is the awkward current situation for software stocks.However, PLTR is different from ordinary software stocks. PLTR has unique irreplaceability. Even with the current sector rotation, I have no doubt about PLTR's potential to surge towards a trillion-dollar market cap in the future. Karp once said in the 2024 shareholder letter: "All of the value in the market is going to go to chips and what we call the Ontology." Hardware still needs software to land in commercial scenarios to realize broader business value. In the wave of AI, I believe the two are spiraling upwards. This is the logic behind why I remain bullish on PLTR.$ Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

The text of the Clarity Act regarding "staked yield" has been released, prohibiting stablecoins from directly generating interest, but allowing activities to generate yield.It is highly likely that the Banking Committee bill will be reviewed in the second week of May. If passed smoothly, the next step is to merge it with the version passed by the Agriculture Committee in January, followed by votes in the House and Senate, and then sent to the White House for legislation in August.The legislative agenda and timeline are very tight, but this is how bipartisan legislation works; it always gets dragged to the last must-pass moment.$ Coinbase(COIN.US)$ Circle(CRCL.US)$ Strategy(MSTR.US)$ BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

BTC is gradually stabilizing around 80000, with data showing real buying support. However, ETH has been unable to break through 2.4k and has been hovering around 2.3k for so long. Why is this? My view:1. The current market is in a phase of "bottom repair + policy expectations," where funds prefer BTC during this stage.2. ETH's positive catalysts rely more on "second-order confirmation." CLARITY benefits ETH more than BTC, but there is no formal markup schedule yet. The market will first treat CLARITY as a "crypto overall positive" and prioritize BTC.During the bear-to-bull market transition, BTC usually rises first, while ETH often lags. ETH's catch-up rally requires two conditions:- BTC must not fall back and must maintain a high-level sideways consolidation.- The market shifts from "buying the safest crypto beta" to "buying higher beta / assets with higher utility."The market is not yet trading "actual utility post-approval," but only trading "increased probability of approval."BTC gets reduced regulatory risk from CLARITY.ETH gets clearer application boundaries for stablecoins, DeFi, RWA, tokenization, and staking from CLARITY.The latter has greater value but is also more complex, hence slower pricing.$ IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US)$ BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)$ Strategy(MSTR.US)

$ iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF(IGV.US) I think IGV has bottomed out. Earnings season is coming soon, and the actual business impact of Anthropic's products will be proven by the earnings.$ Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)$ CloudFlare(NET.US)

$ SpaceX(SPCX.US) This page in the roadshow materials is the most stunning; no other company can replicate this vertically integrated supply chain.Self-developed rockets (lowering launch costs) → Self-developed satellites (lowering manufacturing costs) → Self-built inter-satellite communication network (lowering data transmission costs) → Proprietary AI models (directly consuming computing power) → Owned end-user platform (X, 550 million MAU)From silicon wafers to space, from space to the end-user, fully integrated across the entire chain. Valuation must consider a monopoly premium; the calculator is hard to figure out now.

Emotional summary from LongbridgeSkill, this time it's $ Microsoft(MSFT.US)

The ETH/BTC ratio has almost unknowingly rebounded to its recent high in January. Since the war in the Middle East began, it has been more resilient to negative news and risen more on positive news, already outperforming BTC.$ IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US)$ iShares Staked Ethereum ETF(ETHB.US)

Observations on Crypto Compliance Regulation