lyhalfway

Recently analyzed the historical data of MSTR. If we purely look at the mNAV corresponding to Market Cap, during non-crypto bull market periods, MSTR's premium has maintained an mNAV between 0.8 and 1.2 for an extended time (Figure 1). Here, the mNAV corresponding to Market Cap refers purely to the market capitalization of DAT, excluding the valuation of financing instruments like convertible bonds and STRC. Currently, the 1.2 mNAV on MSTR's official website dashboard includes the mNAV corresponding to the EV of all the above. In other words, if we only look at DAT's core business, the non-bull market average of market-cap mNAV is 0.8-1.2. A higher premium requires additional value-added EV to drive it. For MSTR, that means financing toolkits like STRC.

Similarly, for BMNR, due to its single financing instrument and its derivative businesses (staking, moonshot) not yet generating substantial scaled revenue, Market Cap is approximately equal to EV. The mNAV corresponding to Market Cap fell below 1 in December '25 and has fluctuated between 0.9 and 1 for a period of 5 months (Figure 2), which is also a kind of normal average. I believe this is not an undervaluation, but rather the market's valuation level for DAT during a non-crypto bull market cycle. For BMNR to achieve a higher premium, assets like MAVAN, staking infrastructure, and moonshot investments must transition from narratives into trackable EV, which would then drive the premium above 1.2.

Of course, the above analysis is based on non-crypto bull market sentiment. If BTC/ETH both break new highs, FOMO sentiment could drive DAT's premium even higher (e.g., MSTR's peak could reach 3+), but this is unpredictable in the short term and thus not within the analytical framework.

$Strategy(MSTR.US)

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

Last week, Tom Lee indicated that as the 5% target approaches, the pace of coin accumulation will slow down. Looking at the results, this Monday BMNR updated its coin holdings to 5.2 million, with a new addition of 26,000, and the cash position slightly increased to 775 million. At the same time, an additional 350,000 coins were staked, bringing the total staked amount to 4.7 million, accounting for 91% of the total holdings, with mNAV rebounding to 1.02. Since 2026, BMNR has cumulatively purchased 1 million coins, gradually increasing from a weekly fixed investment of around 40,000 to 100,000, and now it's back to around 30,000. Regarding the change in the accumulation speed, I believe it's partly due to the need for premium recovery...

The first principle of BMNR is:

Are you bullish on ETH's long-term role as the settlement and collateral layer for stablecoin / RWA / tokenization / DeFi / agent commerce?

If the answer is no, BMNR should not be bought.

BMNR is not "because Tom Lee bought it," nor is it "because it might be like MSTR." It is: if the ETH thesis holds, BMNR can represent the ETH thesis better than an ETH ETF.

If you are not bullish on ETH but buy BMNR, you are just buying a high-volatility story stock, and the investment premise itself is wrong.

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) Today, Tom Lee gave a speech at the Consensus conference, mentioning that as the company approaches its 5% target, it will slow down the pace of ETH accumulation.

I think this is a necessary move. The mNAV has been fluctuating around 1 for 5 months since December '25. Without a breakthrough in ETH, it's hard for the premium to expand significantly. Currently, the company has 700 million in cash on its books, still 800k ETH short of the target, requiring over 1 billion in additional financing. The current staking volume is sufficient, and staking yields are stable. Slowing down accumulation also means reduced financing pressure. We'll see if the mNAV can slowly recover in the future.

PLTR's earnings report continued its streak of beating expectations for 10 consecutive quarters, with strong growth in US customers and the launch of AI FDE on the product side, achieving a peak in revenue per employee in the US market. There's nothing to worry about fundamentally. I'd like to discuss the phenomenon I've observed from the perspective of institutional holdings and capital rotation:

Starting from Q1, PLTR's institutional holding ratio stabilized after nearly five years of growth and saw a significant decline in Q2. This coincided with the suppression of software stock valuations since early '26 and the continuous surge in AI hardware like storage. The decline in PLTR's institutional holdings also represents active funds reducing their weight and allocation to the software sector. In terms of trading volume, last year TSLA, NVDA, and PLTR were regulars in the top 5 for trading volume. Now, the top trading volume spots have become Micron and SanDisk. If the market was still skeptical in Q1, then by Q2 institutions had already started to FOMO. At the same time, as the market capitalization of the storage hardware sector grew, it also increased the companies' weight in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. During the next index rebalancing, this will bring more passive index-following capital inflows. Once this sector trend is established, it won't be easily reversed. Against this backdrop, even the best performance by individual software stocks is placed in a challenging context. This is the awkward current situation for software stocks.

However, PLTR is different from ordinary software stocks. PLTR has unique irreplaceability. Even with the current sector rotation, I have no doubt about PLTR's potential to surge towards a trillion-dollar market cap in the future. Karp once said in the 2024 shareholder letter: "All of the value in the market is going to go to chips and what we call the Ontology." Hardware still needs software to land in commercial scenarios to realize broader business value. In the wave of AI, I believe the two are spiraling upwards. This is the logic behind why I remain bullish on PLTR.

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

BTC is gradually stabilizing around 80000, with data showing real buying support. However, ETH has been unable to break through 2.4k and has been hovering around 2.3k for so long. Why is this? My view:

1. The current market is in a phase of "bottom repair + policy expectations," where funds prefer BTC during this stage.

2. ETH's positive catalysts rely more on "second-order confirmation." CLARITY benefits ETH more than BTC, but there is no formal markup schedule yet. The market will first treat CLARITY as a "crypto overall positive" and prioritize BTC.

During the bear-to-bull market transition, BTC usually rises first, while ETH often lags. ETH's catch-up rally requires two conditions:

- BTC must not fall back and must maintain a high-level sideways consolidation.

- The market shifts from "buying the safest crypto beta" to "buying higher beta / assets with higher utility."

The market is not yet trading "actual utility post-approval," but only trading "increased probability of approval."

BTC gets reduced regulatory risk from CLARITY.

ETH gets clearer application boundaries for stablecoins, DeFi, RWA, tokenization, and staking from CLARITY.

The latter has greater value but is also more complex, hence slower pricing.

$IShares Ethereum Trust ETF(ETHA.US)

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)$Strategy(MSTR.US)

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) is reporting earnings after the market closes today. @StockPro, why is there no reservation or live stream link for the conference call? Has our PLTR's popularity really fallen to this level? 🫠

The text of the Clarity Act regarding "staked yield" has been released, prohibiting stablecoins from directly generating interest, but allowing activities to generate yield.

It is highly likely that the Banking Committee bill will be reviewed in the second week of May. If passed smoothly, the next step is to merge it with the version passed by the Agriculture Committee in January, followed by votes in the House and Senate, and then sent to the White House for legislation in August.

The legislative agenda and timeline are very tight, but this is how bipartisan legislation works; it always gets dragged to the last must-pass moment.

$Coinbase(COIN.US)$Circle(CRCL.US)

$Strategy(MSTR.US)$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

I've always had a question about the Manus deal. Since the transaction has been factually completed, with over 100 employees already relocated to Meta's Singapore office and the code already integrated into Meta's systems.

Now, if the deal is reversed, it would essentially mean giving the team and the code to Meta for free, while the Manus founding team and shareholders have to return what they received. Will any overseas institutions still invest in domestic tech companies after this? The previous investors would have no way to exit.

From AI to new energy, companies can go overseas to capture markets, but technology outflow is not acceptable.

$Meta Platforms(META.US)

This Monday, BMNR updated its holdings to 5.07 million coins, with an increase of 102,000 last week. Its cash position decreased from 1.12 billion to 940 million, used for coin accumulation, while mNAV continues to fluctuate around 0.98. Meanwhile, 360,000 new coins were staked last week, bringing the total staked amount to 3.7 million, accounting for 73% of total holdings. BMNR released an S-3 filing on April 23rd, detailing the acquisition specifics of pier two and also disclosed the total number of shares outstanding as of April 23rd as 568m...

ARK has been inactive for many consecutive days, which is quite rare in the past$Ark Innovation ETF(ARKK.US)

Recently, I've looked at a lot of on-chain data and institutional research reports. Regarding Bitcoin and Ethereum, I tend to believe that 60k/1.7k is the bottom. However, the current recovery is a rebound, not a reversal. From the LTH and STH data, it can be seen that the upward momentum comes from a reduction in supply (fewer people selling at a loss) rather than an increase in demand (more new entrants buying in).

With the upgrade of MSTR's financing toolkit, the bottom is formed by buying. The next phase might be a sideways consolidation process, waiting for macro liquidity or policy tailwinds before a further breakthrough can occur.

My strategy remains dollar-cost averaging (DCA).

$Strategy(MSTR.US)$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

The crypto market is still influenced by Middle East negotiations and the Clear Act, but the market is gradually becoming desensitized to the progress of the talks, focusing more on the upcoming statements from the new Fed Chairman, Wash. The roadmap for the Clear Act has been analyzed in detail in yesterday's post, so I won't repeat it here. Last week, BMNR experienced two frustrating rallies followed by pullbacks, but the company also disclosed the exact total number of shares in its earnings report. Combined with the updated coin accumulation progress on Monday, I'm trying to trace back what actions management has taken and how these actions might affect BMNR's update on holding 4.79 million coins this Monday...

Currently, MSTR's own ATM only accounts for a small portion of the company's coin-hoarding financing. The bulk of the financing is done through STRC's ATM. This method maintains the financing scale without putting pressure on MSTR's stock price, which is a pretty good model.

I think BMNR can really learn from this, by leveraging ETH staking yields to launch a product similar to STRC, to alleviate the pressure on its stock price from ATM.

$Strategy(MSTR.US)$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

Using Longbridge Skill, I created a daily report outlining the legislative timeline and event calendar for the Clear Bill. This week features the nomination hearing for the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, and next week is the FOMC meeting. These two major events occupy the time window, making it highly likely that the Banking Committee's markup review of the Clear Bill will have to be scheduled for the first week of May.

Since the midterm elections are in November, if the goal is to submit the bill to the White House for legislative completion in August, the window for the Banking Committee's review falls in May. Considering previous statements from Trump and Bessent, I believe the legislative outcome of the Clear Bill will serve as a significant political achievement for the Republican Party to aid in the midterms, giving the current administration ample motivation to push the legislation forward. However, when legislation is tied to elections, it involves partisan gamesmanship. The outcome might not be clear until the last minute. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that each stage sees substantial progress only when the final deadline is imminent.

$Coinbase(COIN.US)$Circle(CRCL.US)

$Strategy(MSTR.US)$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)

During the downtrend, I kept adding to my position through dollar-cost averaging without stopping. Now that it's rising, I don't feel particularly excited, and I don't even have the urge to watch the market anymore... I'd rather go read a book. 🫠

Emotional summary from LongbridgeSkill, this time it's $Microsoft(MSFT.US)

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)'s surge and fall from +7% to - is indeed very frustrating, especially when other crypto stocks are performing well. The post-market earnings report mostly disclosed information already covered in the weekly PR releases, with two points worth noting.

Total number of shares: As of April 13th, it was 537 million. At the current stock price, the mNAV is 0.96, which also proves that management has indeed been using cash to buy coins in the past period, without issuing additional shares at a negative premium.

Staking revenue: 10 million, which I think is a bit low. Based on the currently disclosed annualized yield of 2.87%, the existing staking amount would generate annual revenue of over 200 million. So, only making 10 million in the past quarter is indeed a bit low, probably because staking only started from zero at the end of December.

There's not much else. I still believe that before ETH breaks through 2.8k, the market won't give BMNR a premium. Until then, it will likely fluctuate between 0.9 and 1.

Whether BTC at 76k/ETH at 2.4k marks a peak in the rebound or a bull-to-bear transition may still require some observation. The fate of the clear bill will be decided in the next two weeks, and the window period before the mid-term elections is April and May, which will be decisive factors.

When discussing PLTR's moat with @宇宙大爆炸 before, I mentioned whether Ontology might also be figured out by AI. My reaction at the time was that it would only be possible if FDE were replaced by AI, which is somewhat difficult.

But today, watching PLTR's developer conference, AI FDE is already being deployed. So my view remains not to look for the next Palantir, because the next Palantir will be built on Palantir.

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) is expected to release its financial report today, announcing a new 10-Q filing. What I'm more concerned about are:

1. Total share capital

2. Quarterly realized staking revenue, preferably broken out separately and presented in a sustainable, trackable financial reporting language

3. Whether MAVAN shows signs of third-party commercialization

$iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF(IGV.US) I think IGV has bottomed out. Earnings season is coming soon, and the actual business impact of Anthropic's products will be proven by the earnings.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)$CloudFlare(NET.US)

My test result is "The Concentrated Hunter" 🎯

Official summary from Longbridge skill 🤣