morning_wind

Undoubtedly, AI will affect and replace a large portion of current knowledge/information-based white-collar jobs (including mine). The speed of this process may mainly depend on how quickly the entire social organization can rebuild for AI. Fortunately, in some cases, behind such massive transformations, there are also opportunities for compensation, like a decent severance package for buying out seniority.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$SMIC(00981.HK)

$Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) — these three cloud giants' capex have all reached $200 billion. The primary market valuations of the two unlisted companies, OpenAI and Anthropic, are already very close to one trillion dollars. As long as AI continues to develop at a high speed, any pullback caused by concerns about demand, macro policies, or geopolitics is a good opportunity for rebalancing and enhancing returns.

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)$SMIC(00981.HK) Take a group photo for memory

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Are you starting up too? Sold some 370 calls expiring on the 51st, welcome to the meltdown.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is catching up on gains, bullish on new highs.

Portfolio bought 5% $SoftBank(SFTBY.US), optimistic about the business of its two sectors: 1) OpenAI will reverse the temporary product disadvantage against Anthropic. 2) AI chips require a large amount of CPUs, and Arm will capture the largest share here.

Deepseek v4 is here. If we include the next-generation models from Anthropic/OpenAI that haven't been publicly released yet, China's cutting-edge models have made significant progress and are catching up closely, but there's still a gap of about 3-6 months.$SMIC(00981.HK)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)The signal released by the interaction between the two parties is very clear. The previous rumors about something like '27 Wutong' are baseless. This signal means TSMC has at least eliminated a major geopolitical risk, worth at least two limit-up days. An all-time high is inevitable.

Did not sell any $Alphabet(GOOGL.US).

The difficult times are here, everyone, don't use leverage to hold on! $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) The lessons from last April are not far away!

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) Looking at the trend of the US stock $ISHRS MSCI S Korea Capped(EWY.US), it's going to gap up at the open tomorrow. Friends who added to their positions these past two days have made some gains.

Today， OpenClaw surpassed 250K+ Stars， officially exceeding React's 243K to become the most popular project on GitHub， all within just a few months. The token consumption in 2026 is almost certain to increase by at least another 10x on top of 2025's level. — Written as semiconductors and AI are pulling back from highs for various reasons. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Haven't done much trading lately, relying on $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) and $XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) to offset the adjustments from $Alphabet(GOOGL.US). Given tonight's situation, I must act and add some $NVIDIA(NVDA.US).

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)Go!

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) all reported strong earnings. The recent poor performance of these large-cap stocks is mainly due to changes in liquidity expectations. It's the same story as the cryptocurrency dropping to 70,000. This has led to many inherently contradictory phenomena: on one hand, there's excessive expectation in the SaaS sector about AI's value and its potential to disrupt SaaS, while on the other hand, there's waning confidence in upstream capex investments. There's growing conservatism about the incremental growth potential of major semiconductor manufacturers, yet excessive enthusiasm for niche players (like optical module companies) in certain hot segments.

The logic behind the SaaS stocks bought during the portfolio adjustment at the beginning of the year (the reasoning was that these software products are not easily replaceable by AI, but introducing AI could significantly enhance their value) has, at least for now, been rejected by the market. The outcome is still uncertain (just like last year when the market was worried AI would kill search), but if not for controlling the position size, it would be very painful now.$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$Figma(FIG.US)$Snowflake(SNOW.US)

$Intel(INTC.US) I also bought some of this during the earnings report plunge, mainly as insurance for my heavy position in $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US). On one hand, its current sentiment is very good; on the other hand, if TSMC faces any unforeseen ups and downs, I believe this can help hedge a significant portion of the risk.

US stock $Micron Tech(MU.US) didn't buy enough at the beginning of the year, so I added some $XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) in Hong Kong stocks as a substitute, and today feels good. TSMC's earnings report rose first, but the sector didn't follow. Two days ago, represented by $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), cloud services raised prices across the board, and the application side atmosphere was also well coordinated. Today, Hynix's earnings report took over well. Next, Microsoft and Meta will announce cloud spending this week. If this doesn't go wrong, once the full-year spending for 2026 comes out, new valuation space will emerge. The main upward wave/full-year gain of semiconductors has a relatively high probability of completing most of it within the next three months. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

There are some positions in $XD INC(02400.HK) in Hong Kong stocks, which are not cheap anymore, but this Friday, taptap maker will be released, and claude code will be integrated into the game engine/game editor, greatly reducing the possibility for ordinary enthusiasts to use AI to create high-quality/playable games. It has the potential to become the first concept stock for large-scale AI implementation in the gaming industry (not the kind for speculative hype). It's a level higher than $Roblox(RBLX.US).

2c agents represented by Clawdbot are extremely popular. They even boosted the sales of Mac mini. My idea/a very intuitive view is that not everyone really needs a Mac mini, but everyone needs a virtual machine. There is logic behind this wave of CPUs. $Intel(INTC.US) has dropped quite a bit, so consider buying some appropriately, and the same goes for $AMD(AMD.US). $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) hits a new high; $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) has settled with Apple, no worries about the cloud, the most critical variable in 2C seems to be settled. In the morning, Deepseek published an article personally signed by the great Liang, the core message is that increasing memory can continue to scale. In the early Hong Kong stock market auction, some $XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) were added to continue the catalysis.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) will hit a new high in 2026!

Sources said that NVIDIA has discussed increasing production with its foundry partner TSMC.

They said the specific additional order volume planned for TSMC remains unclear.

A third source said NVIDIA has asked TSMC to start producing additional chips, with expanded production expected to begin in Q2 2026.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

The process of building the investment portfolio in 2026 is quite different from previous years, mainly because I found it difficult to identify new stocks that meet my satisfaction in terms of win rate and odds, and are worth a large position from my circle of competence. In terms of results, the opening portfolio of 2026 doesn't seem to have changed much from the closing positions at the end of 2025.

Overall, as briefly mentioned earlier, considering the combined effects of the election year, the change of the Federal Reserve chairman, and the typical strong government cycle, I think the overall capital policy environment for U.S. stocks will be more optimistic than in 2025 (hopefully no misjudgment). On the Hong Kong stock side, new stocks keep draining liquidity. Overall, I allocate 7:3 to U.S. stocks and China concept stocks. From the trend of interest rate changes, it doesn't seem advisable, but in the medium to long term, I think the cost of interest rates is acceptable relative to absolute returns.

Specifically for U.S. stocks, gold, Bitcoin, financial innovation, oil and gas, etc., are still not my strengths. I might occasionally speculate on the sidelines, but they won't be included in the portfolio. XBI and LABU have rebounded enough, so I won't allocate them in 2026. Instead, I'll focus on AI.

1. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) , $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)  , and $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)  are still the absolute main large positions. The market consensus is that Alphabet is leading overall but not cheap, NVIDIA is quite controversial, and TSMC's geopolitical risks are hard to handle. Personally, I think Google's recovery is complete, but there's still about 30% room for improvement. I think NVIDIA is at a low point. In fact, it's now a competition between two major alliances: Google vs. NVIDIA+OpenAI. My view is that they will repeatedly outperform each other and eventually both grow. TSMC is the most stable, with its newly expanded capacity and 2nm mass production ensuring enough growth. As for geopolitical risks, I don't consider them. If the risks materialize, I think other stocks within my circle of competence won't be safe either.

2. This year, AI undoubtedly needs to focus on application ROI and Agents. Overall, I favor 2B scenarios > 2C scenarios and predict the most successful AI coding scenario, where Anthropic's lead will shrink. Apart from big players, the certainty of new players in this part is still unclear. The experience of independent applications like Cursor and Manus under the encroachment of LLM models is quite thought-provoking, and I have many ideas to expand on later. In terms of allocation, this is where 2026 differs most from 2025, but the overall position isn't high because it still doesn't feel very clear. Specific names include Apple, PATH, FIGMA, and ServiceNow.