Let's see who it will be if AI hardware hits a new high in this round?
morning_wind
morning_windSuggestions for you to follow
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Re-acquired some $Meta Platforms(META.US). After reducing positions in $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), holding steady. Overweight position in $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) remains unchanged; memory sector has suffered significant losses this round, so I'm ignoring it. For hardware, selling new high calls on sharp rallies; current assessment is that hardware is unlikely to return to June highs. Focus for H2 is on major cloud providers; both Meta and Google show desire to increase positions. Main thoughts and assessments: The narrative of commoditization of models is strengthening, and the competitive-cooperative relationship between cloud and frontier models has entered a stage of mutually beneficial achievement. Overall, cloud may have the upper hand.
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The calls from a while back were basically 100% collected. Selling more calls today to lower the cost basis.
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$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Google's Capex has once again received negative short-term feedback from the market, with investors simultaneously worrying about two things: 1) The portion of Capex invested in model R&D appears to have a low ROI, given the underwhelming performance of Gemini 3.5; 2) The Capex related to selling cloud computing power is suspected of circular transactions with Anthropic, where both profits and backlogs originate from them, as do investments. Double-counting is not allowed, and ROI needs to be discounted. Both of these short-term logics make sense; looking at it over a longer horizon, it might not be that bad: 1) The competition for models may see shifts in dominance, and perhaps the next version will make a comeback; 2) If Liang Sheng's judgment is accurate that "lower cost is ultimately more important," then Gemini being temporarily behind becomes less significant. Cloud infrastructure will be more crucial and grant greater influence, alleviating the above two concerns. The worst-case scenario remains: winner-takes-all in the model space & Gemini continues to underperform.
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Recent complete sharing by Liang Wenfeng of DeepSeek
1. When we first started this company, our original intention was not to think about how much money we would make in the end, or to go to the capital market, or to list on the stock exchange, or whatever. The initial dozens of people never thought like that; if they had, they wouldn't have joined. 2. We undertook this endeavor with great goodwill towards the world, believing it to be useful to humanity—a matter beyond mere financial gain. Our original intent, our vision, and the vision we have maintained to this day were not driven by a strategy of maximizing commercial interests. 3. Managing a large company...
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62. The moat of Nvidia's CUDA is being rapidly eroded. On one hand, with the advent of AI, building this ecosystem has become much easier than before because AI can write code. — Liang Sheng from Deepseek.
From this perspective, it is very logical that $AMD(AMD.US) remains largely unscathed in this round. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) needs a more comprehensive moat, including supply chain, communications, etc.
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Sell call, sell call
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1) Cutting-edge models are released here every day, with daily free credits, just like the new energy vehicle launches + new retail subsidy wars; 2) The competition in frontier models is too fierce, the total market size will grow, but how the endgame profits will be distributed is highly uncertain. 3) The current investment in cloud computing here is too large, and it's hard to say how much of the long-term profit share and voice will be taken by the model manufacturers. 4) Hardware truly makes money in the current period. The cost is valuation and discipline.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)
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$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) Key points from the earnings report and conference call: 1) Gross margin steadily increased; 2) TSMC expects revenue growth in 2026, measured in US dollars, to be slightly above 40%, previously forecasted as above 30%. 3) TSMC expressed confidence in the significant trend of artificial intelligence, stating that capital expenditures over the next three years will be significantly higher than the past three years. 4) TSMC announced that it will raise its capital expenditure ceiling for 2026 to $64 billion.
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$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) reported a net profit of NT$706.6 billion in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of NT$623.73 billion. This is a key compass data point for the hardware sector.
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$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)$SK Hynix(SKHY.US) The US ADR is already at a 50% premium compared to the underlying stock, that's just absurd, absolutely absurd. Some people are shorting the ADR and going long the underlying stock, they're going to have a tough time now.
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This wave has taken quite a few pullbacks, and many people have been asking for opinions via private messages these past two days. The judgment that AI is a major opportunity on a ten-year scale has not wavered at all. A significant part of the intense pain from this wave of pullbacks is because many people added leverage during the rally, and secondly, it might be due to buying at the peak. If you hold positions with a slightly longer duration, like $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), $AMD(AMD.US), $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US), or DRAM, the returns for this year are still decent, not painful. To summarize the lessons learned, we should focus on these two points, not say AI is over just because the stock price fell. Finally, some believe value will shift downstream in AI, for example, to cloud computing, or to model and application companies (the two are also in a game of their own). I think it will inevitably happen in the long term, but it's not clear enough in the short term at the moment.
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$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)The former adjusted some to the latter.
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$Meta Platforms(META.US)$Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US)My take on the Meta thing: Market-based measures have optimized the resource allocation efficiency of computing infrastructure, similar to how a planned economy is being adjusted. It doesn't affect the overall supply-demand imbalance issue of the entire silicon-based industry. Locally, it might even increase the tolerance for internal competition among various CSP/CAPEX spenders: computing power is still something to fight for; it's better to scale it up in your own hands; if you really can't scale it up, you won't lose out (you can still resell it).
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If your account is still in the green in the first half of the year, don't be discouraged.
Because: May is poor, June is desperate, July sees a turnaround, September and October are golden, the year-end sprint is coming, and great doublings are all achieved in the second half of the year.
The first half is either a "youth trap" or a "children's trap," neither is very promising; the second half is the real deal: July turnaround, August consolidation, September surprise attack, October harvest, and a year-end sprint to new highs.
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$LAIFUAL(03952.HK) actually broke its issue price in the morning session today. The discount compared to the A-share $Leaderdrive(688017.SH) is too exaggerated. Buying a bit to show support.
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Anthropic: U$62B
OpenAI: U$40B
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The recent ARR situation of the two companies in June is still rising.
$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
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If you think silicon-based is too risky and want to look at carbon-based, you should still be cautious about bottom-fishing in Chinese internet stocks in Hong Kong. Pharmaceutical leaders are relatively at low points and have the potential to emerge first.$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$BEONE MEDICINES(06160.HK)$INNOVENT BIO(01801.HK)
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$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) is officially going to list on the US stock market. Estimated date is July 10th. The new share issue price will be based on the closing price on the 23rd. Coincidentally, it plunged 12% in a single day on the 23rd. It's really hard to say if this big drop was intentional...
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Last night, the market was speculating that Google's questioning of MAG7's massive bleeding investments might all be about practicing the Sunflower Manual (a risky, self-destructive strategy);
Today, it feels like they're realizing something's wrong while practicing and starting to live within their means, and hardware is going to suffer as a result.
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Expressed dissatisfaction with the continuous large outflow of talent related to the model of $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), sold a portion today. Reallocated into $Intel(INTC.US) and $Cerebras(CBRS.US). The reason for buying Intel is also clearly buying into some narratives over the weekend (CEO interview). Still hold quite a bit of Google, but the main expectation is now only on cloud and TPU. The expectations for the model since last year's Q3 are now gone.
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Let me summarize Mr. Dan Bin's recent activities for everyone. It's all public data, so I won't go on about risk warnings and such; just for your reference. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)