SGPOMRT@EP2612A

I really don't understand Pop Mart.

If you don't understand it, don't touch it.

You can't just buy because A Duan bought it.

And then when they get called out, they start making excuses...

Investing is your own business.

Independent thinking is very important 🤔

new design of stock to crave for collection. Current designs are mostly grab and done for. Consumers are constantly searching for excitement. This eventually elevates the valuation of the company.✌️

$POP MART(09992.HK)

Pop Mart: Is the Labubu Fever Breaking?

According to The Straits Times (2 April), Pop Mart’s staggering $42 billion valuation wipeout signals a “Labubu-sized” identity crisis. Investors are pivoting away from treating the toy maker as a high-flying, tech-adjacent firm, focusing instead on the structural risks of it being a fleeting consumer trend.

🔹 Technical Snapshot: Catching a Falling Knife?

❤️ On the 4H chart, it shows a clear vertical selloff from HKD 220–230 zone down to 141.8.

❤️ Bollinger Band Exhaustion: The price is “hugging” the lower band (HKD 112.8). While technically overextended, the absence of a meaningful bounce suggests sustained selling pressure rather than an imminent reversal.

❤️ RSI Conditions: The RSI is deep in oversold territory at 25.39. Current momentum is so bearish that the RSI is simply “sliding” along the floor.

❤️ Resistance Levels: The 20-period SMA (blue line) at HKD 169.1 serves as the immediate ceiling.

🔹 Fundamentals Snapshot :

❤️ IP Over-Concentration: Labubu accounted for nearly 40% of 2025 revenue. This extreme reliance creates a “single point of failure”.

❤️Inventory Red Flags: Inventory turnover has spiked to 123 days. This suggests that while production remains high, the “sell-through” rate is decelerating.

❤️Valuation De-rating: Now trading at 10.3x forward earnings, the stock sits at a record-low valuation. However, the market is pricing in a “growth trap”.

❤️My Verdict: Patience Over Panic

Pop Mart is currently a high-risk contrarian play, with high rewards. While the valuation is objectively tempting and management is active with share buybacks, the technicals have yet to signal a definitive bottom.

Stay prudent, wait for a “basing” pattern. Look for the price to consolidate between HKD 140–150 for several sessions without posting new lows.

Not financial advice. Trade safety and stay vigilant at all times.

Powell may not have an FOMC talk, but his recent QnA at a University sparks interests and influenced the market. A simple comment that inflation outlook in check and there's no need to hike rates due to oil shock has the market reacting positively. Let's see how the situation pans out in the next few weeks

Fed is in a dilemma. On one hand, he is cautious of rising inflation due to wars & tariff, on the other hand, he is watching unemployment rate in the labor market. Do nothing is the best current strategy for the Fed, till events becomes clearer. Singapore is pivoting to partner other trading blocks to increase trade export to like minded countries. And fast adoption of AI to enhance productivity to address rising cost of doing business here. Is all hands on deck. Singapore has to be ahead of the curve due to fast changing political and economical landscape changes to keep growth on track.

Fed’s dovish is shifting short term sentiment, creating a tactical risk on window. Not a full pivot yet,so stay long quality growth but keep macro hedges in place

Tesla TERAFAB – Moving into ultra scale compute fits the AI capex boom, where global demand is surging. For now, it’s a high beta narrative play, with execution risk still the main swing factor.

Singapore retains solid growth supported by strong manufacturing and AI driven exports, showing underlying resilience despite external risks.

Musk is again promising the sun and moon; selling a dream, forever over promising and shifting goal posts. With the geopolitical event causing headache and pocket-aches to investors, I don't think anyone would be in the mood to be an all-in bull right now...

7 days into negotiation between US and IRAN, but no news of any breakthrough. The war will be long and the blockade will last. Start being defensive people!

As the war continues, oil will be in short supply and cause Singapore to suffer. Yes we do have 6 months of reserve. But one that used up, we are in the same situation as other South East Asia counties... So be worried peeps!