ASML 2X Long ETF

Taiwan’s ‘Big 5’ chip packaging and testing firms (OSATs) will spend over NT$460 billion (US$14.4B) this year on capex in a bid to catch up with AI-related demand, media report. Industry giant ASE said its biggest problem now is how to accelerate construction, equipment installation, and capacity rollout at 13 new projects and 8 renovations:

Source: Dan Nystedt

$Carmax(KMX.US)#Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards

### Trade Recap

My CarMax (KMX) position shows a 1.01% unrealized loss, with an entry cost of $58.235 and a current price of $57.500. The minor pullback moved in line with broad softness across consumer cyclical stocks, as traders reassessed the recovery pace of the US used-vehicle retail market. No company-specific negative news drove the dip; it largely reflects cautious near-term sentiment over auto loan rates and vehicle affordability. I kept the full position intact through the session, treating this mild retreat as normal trading noise rather than a trend break.

### Investment Insight

This small drawdown delivers a straightforward lesson: cyclical recoveries never advance in a straight line. Even when the long-term restructuring thesis stays solid, short-term sentiment shifts can easily produce 1–2% daily swings. Overtrading on such minor fluctuations only racks up transaction costs and eats into potential returns. For retail cyclical trades, patience pays off; real turning points show up in quarterly sales and margin data, not in single-day price moves.

### Risk Control Strategy

I cap KMX at 7% of my total portfolio to contain auto-cycle concentration risk. A 5% hard stop-loss from my cost basis is active to limit downside if the used-car market worsens further. I will not average down on small dips; extra capital will only be deployed if upcoming earnings reports confirm improving unit economics and stabilizing inventory conditions. (Word count: 292)$Carmax(KMX.US)$Grab(GRAB.US)$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Semicap DRAM revenue is on fire. New peaks are loading. ASML has been gaining share in DRAM, driven by higher EUV adoption. AMAT stable. Lam and KLA cyclical gainers. TEL has been a share donor and surprisingly underperformed.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

Breaking: Point72 Asset Management just filed its Q2 2026 13F

Taiwan DRAM maker Nanya Tech plans to build new 12-inch wafer fabs in Yunlin and Pingtung, Taiwan for DRAM and customized DRAM, media report.

Source: Dan Nystedt

While the market is focused on WFE, service revenue at the semicaps is accelerating faster. Combined service revenue across ASML, Lam, TEL and KLA grew 33% year on year in the June quarter against 20% for equipment. Service business is the real-time signal as its inflection is reflected in industry utilization rates ahead of equipment. Service business help logic/memory customers stay on top of yields and squeeze more wafer capacity, which is valuable in current situation.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

GF Securities is forecasting global WFE to reach $236 billion in 2027 and then $295 billion in 2028.

Huge overreaction to the news that China has started mass producing DUV lithography machines.

🦎 IGGY CLOSING BRIEF, 28 JULY 2026

🌆 That is a wrap on 28 July. Here is what the session delivered.

SESSION SUMMARY

STI closed at 5,616.1, down 0.07% on the day, essentially flat on the index level. That headline number hides the real story, a sharp split between chip equipment names extending this morning's sell-off and broad strength almost everywhere else, SingTel, the CapitaLand REITs, and Seatrium all pushed higher. The session confirmed this morning's flash, the chip names got worse into the close rather than stabilising.

THREE MOVERS IGGY IS WATCHING

👁 558 UMS, closed down 8.47% to S$2.27

Worse than the "as much as 8.1%" this morning's intraday read suggested, the selling deepened rather than eased through the session. That tells me the market isn't treating this as an overreaction to be bought, at least not yet. Same Applied Materials supply chain read through as this morning, still not a company specific problem on today's information.

👁 Z74 SingTel, closed up 2.49% to S$4.53

A real move, and it continues to be the heaviest volume name on my radar most sessions. The core story has not changed, headline yield still leans on a distribution piece funded by asset sales rather than the operating business, and that gap does not close on a strong day either.

MACRO INTO TOMORROW

Watch whether the chip equipment weakness stabilises or spreads, UMS and CSE Global both remain exposed to the same ASML lithography story that started this. Seatrium's 31 July results still confirm or unwind Monday's jump. Worth checking overnight US chip trading before tomorrow's open.

IGGY'S END OF DAY READ

A two speed market today, real stress in one corner and genuine strength almost everywhere else. The flat index print is the least informative number from this session, not the most.

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

It’s a bloody day for tech stocks with a broad sell off triggered by the news that China is producing DUV lithography machines. It remains to be seen whether China’s product can compare to the current leadier in the industry ASML.

🦎 IGGY MARKET UPDATE, 28 JULY 2026

📉 Chip stocks across Asia are having a rough Tuesday, and Singapore's semiconductor names are caught in it.

WHAT HAPPENED

A global memory and chip equipment sell-off spread into Asia this morning. Frencken and UMS, both suppliers into the Applied Materials ecosystem, led the region's declines. AEM and CSE Global also fell. The trigger traces back to Monday, when a report suggested a Chinese state-backed firm can now mass produce the kind of deep ultraviolet lithography tools ASML has long dominated, and ASML itself dropped nearly 6% on it. Nikon and Canon followed lower.

THE SINGAPORE NAMES

👁 Frencken (E28), down as much as 8.5%

Hit hardest of the four, consistent with its direct exposure as an Applied Materials supplier. This is a supply chain read through, not a company specific problem on today's information.

👁 UMS (558), down as much as 8.1%

Same story as Frencken, another Applied Materials supplier caught in the downdraft from its US customer's own weak session.

👁 AEM (AWX), down as much as 5.6%

Structural concern here has never been the business quality, it's the payout policy. Today's move is a sector rotation story on top of that, not a change to either.

👁 CSE Global (544), down as much as 4.9%

This actually gives a real answer to the volatility flagged in earlier sessions, a genuine sector driver rather than something stock specific and unexplained.

IGGY'S READ

The bigger picture is a market rotating out of AI infrastructure names on financing and competition worries, not a Singapore specific story. CXMT's 466% debut surge in Shanghai the same week says China's chip investors aren't worried, they're leaning in. Two very different reads on the same theme, worth remembering before treating today's red as a verdict on any one name.

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

China’s DRAM makers will double production capacity by 2030 led by CXMT, media report, citing Goldman Sachs. The report says China’s memory makers are focusing on 3D DRAM due to restrictions to their purchase of EUV lithography machines. $ASML(ASML.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $SSNLF $Micron Tech(MU.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Source: amit

The AI bubble might soon be popping:

• Nasdaq composite fell to a four-week low amid rising oil prices due to U.S.-Iran tensions.

Nanya Technology, Taiwan’s top memory chip maker, said its new NT$500 billion (US$15.5B) Taishan fab will open early next year and help it close the gap with bigger memory chip makers, media report, adding it will be the 1st Nanya fab to use EUV lithography.

Source: Dan Nystedt

Semiconductors

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) and $ASML(ASML.US)

These two cash cows are what I've always been bullish on

Their ability to generate consistent profits

And their deep moats

The only downside is that they aren't US companies

Not investment advice!

Morgan Stanley: Semiconductor Production Equipment