Quick thoughts ahead of $Meta Platforms(META.US) earnings shortly:
Key question: What does the monetization roadmap look like for Muse?Despite app downloads showing that AI capex is translating into real demand, my gut feeling is that Zuck will give a more hollistic view on AI monetization that lacks any real detail.This ultimately boils down to Meta's strategy of scale first, monetize later.Which then raises the usual capex questions particularly with Meta now positioning themselves as a frontier AI lab with their new Muse Wonder models. They'll need more compute if they're really taking this AI thing seriously.The current FY26 capex guide is $130-145B, so any increase to this without a clear AI monetization roadmap could be detrimental if I take a glass-half-empty view...particularly with consensus FCF deeply in the red at roughly -$9B for Q3.So how do Meta finance this exactly? Is it via their Blackrock agreement, or some combination of debt/equity? Again, something we'll need clarity on, layered on top of their monetization plans.I ultimately think that Zuck needs to really sell the longer-term AI vision today.
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CPI came in hotter than expected on both headline and core, and October hike odds jumped from around 22% to over 50% on the print, so the "hike anyway" call is looking better this morning than it did yesterday. BlackRock's Treasury pivot is still the interesting counterpoint though, they're betting the market overreacted on hike expectations, which cuts against the sticky-inflation read.
Next FOMC on the 28th should settle it... will be a jittery period. =)
Cheers, Iggy 🦖
CPI Is This Week's Big Macro Test. Pause? - P
the CPI increased more than consensus and stock and bonds are currently down. remember what buffet said: when people are fearful, be greedy. I would be buying on the dip
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Tonight’s CPI Decides the Fed’s Next MoveThree Fed officials backed another rate hike on the same day, hours before tonight's CPI. At home, MAS surprised every analyst by holding. Let's dig in 👇💬 If tonight's CPI runs hot, do you add to rate...
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MAS maintaining policy highlights domestic inflation resilience, contrasting Fed hawkishness. A hot US CPI print elevated yield pressures, making stepping back from rate-sensitive S-REITs prudent until rate paths clarify.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Tonight’s CPI Decides the Fed’s Next MoveThree Fed officials backed another rate hike on the same day, hours before tonight's CPI. At home, MAS surprised every analyst by holding. Let's dig in 👇💬 If tonight's CPI runs hot, do you add to rate...
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$BlackRock(BLK.US) Q3 EARNINGS
Adj. EPS: $15.93 vs $14.13 est ✅Sales: $7.75B vs $7.52B est ✅CEO Larry Fink: "Demand for capital is growing across the global economy, and BlackRock is increasingly at the center of how that capital is deployed and managed.I’m confident in the opportunities that creates for our clients and in the longterm value we can generate for our shareholders." - N
Tonight CPI results will be volatile for the market so could consider taking profit if so not want to risk capital. If stocks are down a lot, can ask if the fundamentals of the business or guidance have changed drastically or is just fear sentiment in the market. Very few can catch the absolute bottom of a favour stocks that you do not mind owning for years so DCA slowly and do not all in capital to sleep well at night.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Tonight’s CPI Decides the Fed’s Next MoveThree Fed officials backed another rate hike on the same day, hours before tonight's CPI. At home, MAS surprised every analyst by holding. Let's dig in 👇💬 If tonight's CPI runs hot, do you add to rate...
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Tonight, CPI, again, big players could play the news of CPI and rate hike or hold. We are just following their direction, up and down, down then up
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Tonight’s CPI Decides the Fed’s Next MoveThree Fed officials backed another rate hike on the same day, hours before tonight's CPI. At home, MAS surprised every analyst by holding. Let's dig in 👇💬 If tonight's CPI runs hot, do you add to rate...
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Federal Reserve officials’ support for another rate hike signals persistent concern about inflation and suggests monetary policy may remain restrictive. Markets pricing in three additional hikes could increase Treasury yields, strengthen the US dollar and pressure equities, particularly high-valuation growth stocks. September CPI, expected at 3.6%, is pivotal: a higher reading may reinforce tightening expectations, while a softer result could ease rate pressure. As the final inflation report before the October 27–28 meeting, CPI may significantly influence market positioning and volatility, although employment data and other economic indicators will also shape the Fed’s decision.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Tonight’s CPI Decides the Fed’s Next MoveThree Fed officials backed another rate hike on the same day, hours before tonight's CPI. At home, MAS surprised every analyst by holding. Let's dig in 👇💬 If tonight's CPI runs hot, do you add to rate...
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Will CPI bring a pleasant boost to the markets? The markets have been rotating hard from tech to financials and value which indicates they are expecting more economic growth but with an increase in borrowing costs.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Tonight’s CPI Decides the Fed’s Next MoveThree Fed officials backed another rate hike on the same day, hours before tonight's CPI. At home, MAS surprised every analyst by holding. Let's dig in 👇💬 If tonight's CPI runs hot, do you add to rate...
