Once again, the GPU depreciation bear thesis is dead.
Elon on the $SpaceX(SPCX.US) call: "The value of compute per watt will increase over time, not decrease... that's why you see things like even old computers like H100s renting for more than they rented when they were new."When supply is this constrained, GPU rental prices are set by the value of the marginal token, not the replacement cost of the chip.Models keep getting better, and better models raise the value of every installed watt faster than new GPUs deflate the old ones.Various datapoints all stack up:-> $SpaceX(SPCX.US) says compute contracts are renewing "at higher dollars per watt, not lower dollars per watt"-> 1-year H100 contract pricing went from ~$1.70/hr to ~$2.35/hr between Oct 2025 and Mar 2026 (a 2022 chip!)-> $Coreweave(CRWV.US) signed an A100 contract running into 2029 (a 2020 chip) and said older-gen pricing is at / above a year ago, and raised list prices ~25% in July.-> $Nebius(NBIS.US)'s first Blackwell auction cleared 15% above its previous high and as a reminder....they told customers H100 on-demand goes up ~17% (from Oct 1).-> Zuckerberg: $Meta Platforms(META.US) is getting offers for its compute "at a significant premium over what we paid for it".-> Lenders are now lending against GPUs out to 2030 e.g. $Nebius(NBIS.US) borrowed against its GPUs at SOFR+250 in July.Feels like the 2-3 year GPU useful life bear thesis keeps getting setback. Ofc, the one thing that ruins the party is the S/D gap closing -- Rental prices fall back toward replacement cost + older GPUs get repriced on perf/W. Which won't happen anytime soon.
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- G
$SpaceX(SPCX.US) now up 4% in after hours.
I think its because Elon is so aggressive about the demand for compute. Good news for SI business. $Coreweave(CRWV.US) was up 1% going into the call. Now up 2.8%.Source: Gene Munster
- S
South Korean retail investors oversubscribed this AI IPO more than 400 times. It just had the worst big debut in the country's history
Elice Group, an AI cloud and data center provider, plunged 32% on its first day of trading on the Kosdaq, per ReutersThat's the worst debut ever in South Korea for a company that raised more than $100 million in an IPO, according to Dealogic dataRetail investors poured roughly 10.3 trillion won into subscription deposits hoping to get shares, and institutional orders came in at nearly 389 times the shares on offerThe 201.1 billion won ($150 million) raise was the biggest IPO in Seoul this year, priced at 90,500 won a share on Oct 6, before the AI selloff hitThe damage spread fast. The KOSPI fell 3.73% to its lowest close since April 7, and US neoclouds $Coreweave(CRWV.US) and $Nebius(NBIS.US) each dropped about 6% at today's lows before dip buyers stepped inIt also comes as $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)-backed Firmus, $Blackstone(BX.US)-backed AirTrunk and SoftBank's SB Energy have all shelved IPO plans this monthElice tripled its revenue and swung to a profit in the first half, and the market still marked it down by a third in a single session. Investors aren't asking whether AI demand is real anymore, they're asking who pays for all these data centers and at what cost of capital, and until that's answered, every new AI infrastructure listing is going to get priced like a risk, not a rocket shipSource: StockMarket.News
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Many were predicting Black Monday yesterday which ultimately did not occur. This proved that while statistics could be used to gauge and predict the future, it is never accurate. Times are changing and the stock market is increasingly unpredictable with shorter but steeper bursts and dips.
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- N
Wall Street's bounce reflects technical relief after an oversold chip wash, but Asia’s skepticism is justified given ongoing yield friction and macro uncertainty. Rebuilding high-conviction exposure in core hardware remains favored, yet tactical patience is required until broader regional liquidity stabilizes.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Chips Snap Their Streak, Asia Doesn't FollowThe chip rout that defined last week ended on Monday, and Asia is not buying it. At home, the STI is slipping. Let's dig in 👇💬 Wall Street says the selloff is over, Asia says it isn't. Which side are ...
- K
The fear of AI slowing monetary realisation is contagious and spreading rapidly throughout the global markets. The tech sell-off that we had experienced last week was just an early indication we should take note of. At this junction, the ongoing wars, high inflationary pressure, elevated oil price, Fed further rate hikes, higher financing costs, and upcoming US midterm elections, all summed up and induced uncertainty and volatility in the market. So be cautiously optimistic investing for coming months.
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- J
The ratio for AI CAPEX to Monetary Return is approximately 16 : 1 . So the chip rout that we had experienced last week is just an early sign. The following week earnings release must be in really good number in order to convince and calm down the market’s sentiments.
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the so called black monday didnt really happen. US market rebounded after last friday sell off. so it is temporary excuse for people to offload. however last night action was kinda open high close low, thus market is very shaky or maybe cautious in other words.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Chips Snap Their Streak, Asia Doesn't FollowThe chip rout that defined last week ended on Monday, and Asia is not buying it. At home, the STI is slipping. Let's dig in 👇💬 Wall Street says the selloff is over, Asia says it isn't. Which side are ...
