ISHRS MSCI S Korea Capped

After holding a conference with major memory makers, BofA remains confident in the memory super-cycle continuing through 2028-2030 with no downturn, as high ASPs, strong demand, and supply tightness continue.

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HSBC: Server DRAM prices should continue rising

amid strong demand for AI and general servers.

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KB Securities: with higher HBM4 shipments, we expect Samsung Electronic's HBM market share to jump from 33% in 2Q26 to ~40% in 4026.

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Preliminary Exports | September 10, 2026

Based on figures from the 1st to the 10th of each month

DRAM: +529% Y/Y, +79% M/M

MCP (HBM): +293% Y/Y, +87% M/M

MLCC: +38% Y/Y, +65% M/M

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MIC report with a supply/demand assessment on various AI components.

HBM/Commodity DRAM: tight through 20227-2028

High-end MLCC: tight in 2027; 2028 to be watched

ABF Substrate: may ease in 2028

ABF Buildup Film: tight in 2027; may ease in 2028

High-end CCL: tight in 2027; may ease in 2028

T-Glass: possible turning point in H2'27

NAND: may ease from late 2027 through 2028

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MS Hwang from Counterpoint Research believes YMTC could reach 18% global NAND market share in 2028.

> 2028 could be an inflection point in pricing dynamic

> Demand is expected to remain stable through 2028 due to AI-driven growth

> Chinese firms are increasing their tool localization rate

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It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X:

- try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it

- get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups

- throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals

When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts.

One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for everyone.

I think this definitely resonated with folks given my follower growth.

But of course, this growth can also create friction with people whose business models rely on using X to funnel audiences into paid services or expensive paywalls.

My subscription has been $1 for months and will stay at the minimum, despite claims at the beginning I would raise it to $100.

All of my core theses are published on the main timeline for free. I could put substantially more behind a paywall. I just don't want to.

I just prefer sharing the ideas openly and letting everyone decide for themselves.

Many ideas have worked out well: $AXT(AXTI.US), $Nebius(NBIS.US), $Aehr Test(AEHR.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Intel(INTC.US), $EWY, $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US), $RPI, $IQE, $SOI, $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US), $Arm(ARM.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), and a lot more.

Others ran into unexpected industry delays, like $LPKF with glass substrates and Auros with hybrid bonding.

Some are still playing out into 2027/2028, including $SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, $Churchill Capital XI(CCXI.US), $XFAB and the broader CPO/humanoid themes.

Some are brand new like Etron/ESMT for DDR2/DDR3.

And many like $Jabil(JBL.US) to Murata to $Maxlinear(MXL.US), I just share for fun to see if the idea is right.

Not every idea will be right. That's part of research.

But I'd much rather have an X where people openly publish the thesis and reasoning so everyone can learn from it.

Than one where information increasingly disappears behind $100 paywalls or becomes diluted with engagement-bait noise.

Hopefully I can help create a new culture on X rather than amplify the old one.

Morgan Stanley: server share of DRAM demand to rise from 37% in 2023 to 59% in 2028e.

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Morgan Stanley: Where are CXMT and YMTC positioned in memory?

The big 3 remain to have strong presence in every memory type.

CXMT and YMTC are still behind by a mile.

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Edgewater: Feedback suggests Nvidia likely signed a multi-year supply agreement for DRAM/HBM with SK Hynix and Micron. CY27 HBM pricing is not expected to be settled until late 2H26.

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