Edgewater: Feedback suggests Nvidia likely signed a multi-year supply agreement for DRAM/HBM with SK Hynix and Micron. CY27 HBM pricing is not expected to be settled until late 2H26.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY
Share your thoughtsWhat's on your mind?
0 / 2,000
- E
J.P. Morgan: DRAM & NAND bit demand vs bit supply
DRAM bit supply/demand to be worse in 2027 before balancing in 2028, same for NAND. Note: this is for bits. Does not mean shortage is solved in 2028.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $EWY $DRAM $Micron Tech(MU.US) - E
Mizuho: InP & Memory
Supply Chain & Gating Factors> InP Laser Supply: Remains tight into 2027E as multiple suppliers work to bring capacity online.> NPO & CPO Dynamics: NPO continues to act as a near-term bridge for CPO, which is expected to ramp in 2H27/28E.> CRDO Position: Believed to be the leader in Active Electrical Cables (AEC), with market ramping at a 98% 2024–29E CAGR, driven by additional upside from ZFO, ALC/MicroLED, and SiPho ramps.> LITE Commentary: 1.6T ramps feature 200G accounting for >25% of revenues, with CPO delayed to 2H27. CRDO benefits from this alongside Neocloud strength for AEC.Memory & Storage Pricing (NAND/DRAM)> ASP Spikes: NAND/DRAM Average Selling Prices (ASPs) are projected up 406%/421% y/y in 2026E.> Growth Moderation: Growth slows down in 2027E, with NAND expected to be flat and DRAM up 52% y/y.AI DC Short-Reach Copper Cable Split > Market Expansion: Total units grow steadily from 8M in 2024 to 23M by 2029.> AEC Adoption: AEC units increase from 0M (2024) to 12M (2027) and 12M (2029), with total AEC penetration (including optical %) scaling to over 40% by 2029.Estimated Wholesale 1.6T Cable Prices ($)AEC: $225ALC: $400EML-based Transceiver: $700CPO: $150$Credo Tech(CRDO.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $DDRAM $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $EWY - E
J.P. Morgan on memory LTAs: "A relatively misunderstood element within LTA is the resilience of pricing. Majority of the LTA discussion is currently centered around server memory. CSP and AI related memory demand is likely to be the majority (over 70% of total bit demand and 85+% of total revenue) of the contract. Server memory solutions carry a significant price premium over non-server applications and we believe the LTA mix increase will be pricing/margin accretive from a mid-to-long term horizon."
$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) - E
RBC: Memory
DRAM Supply & Demand Forecast > Structural Deficit Trend: Sufficiency (measured as supply relative to demand) turns increasingly negative starting in mid-2025 and deepens through 2026, indicating that demand growth consistently outpaces supply expansion.> Peak Tightness: The market hits its most severe structural deficit in 1Q26A, where sufficiency drops to roughly -6.6%.> Volume Expansion: Both DRAM demand and supply scale significantly throughout 2026, with total market volume projected to climb from under 8,000 million GB in early 2024 to over 13,000 million GB by 4Q26E.NAND Supply & Demand Forecast > Transition to Deficit: After experiencing a period of oversupply with positive sufficiency peaking near +6.5% in 1Q25, the NAND market pivots sharply into a structural deficit by late 2025.> Deepest Deficit in Early 2026: Similar to DRAM, the NAND market bottoms out in terms of sufficiency at 1Q26A, reaching a deficit trough of approximately -7.5%.> Volume Scale: Demand and supply volumes steadily recover and expand through the remainder of 2026, approaching 330,000 million GB by 4Q26E.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY $Sandisk(SNDK.US) - E
BofA: Memory
DRAM Pricing Trends > Record Highs: DRAM spot and contract prices climbed to record highs of approximately US$35–40 following a strong rally in 4Q25 and 1Q26.> Growth Trajectory: After the sharp surge, prices are exhibiting moderate growth moving into 2Q26.> Spot vs. Contract: Both 16Gb DDR5 spot and contract prices remained relatively flat between 1Q23 and 3Q25 before experiencing a steep vertical breakout starting in late 2025.NAND Wafer Pricing Trends > Record-High Levels: Both 512Gb wafer spot and contract prices are currently at record-high levels.> Contract vs. Spot Dynamics: NAND wafer contract prices have surged significantly ahead of spot prices during the recent upswing.> Historical Baseline: Prices hovered stably between US$2 and US$5 from early 2023 through late 2025 before skyrocketing sharply into mid-2026.DDR4 vs. DDR5 Contract Price Comparison> Disappearance of Price Premium: DDR4 and 16Gb DDR5 contract prices have converged at similar levels (US$35–50 by mid-2026); the traditional DDR5 price premium no longer exists.> Driver of Convergence: The collapse of the price gap is driven primarily by an acute DDR4 shortage.Timeline: Both technologies tracked closely below US$10 until mid-2025, after which they escalated rapidly through July 2026.$Micron Tech(MU.US) $EWY $DRAM - F
$EWW.. I mean $EWY went below 21ema again, already 5th time this month. Is it a warning sign we're ignoring?
- S
I’m just watching everything from $EWY to $Sandisk(SNDK.US) go up enormous amounts…
Even $Micron Tech(MU.US) is up 12% today.Uhhh… YTD is getting a little ridiculous.Source: Serenity
- W
South Korea's ETF closed at record highs, now up 186% over the past year. $EWY
- I
$ISHRS MSCI S Korea Capped(EWY.US)Upupup
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - I
$ISHRS MSCI S Korea Capped(EWY.US)EWY target 150, memory shortage still a thing and AI still a bubble
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - G
A pure-play ETF focused on the memory sector
1. $Micron Tech(MU.US)- 24.63%
2. Samsung - 24.11%
3. SK Hynix - 23.08%
4. $Sandisk(SNDK.US)- 4.9%
5. Kioxia - 4.86%
6. $Western Digital(WDC.US)- 4.77%
7.$Seagate Tech(STX.US)- 4.73%
7. Nanya - 3.89%
8. Winbond - 2.4%
You can sell ewy and switch to DRAM next week.
- T
$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)
It is very strange that the stock did not gap up after the joyful news. Almost every stock surged. This will bear on EWY, as Hynix is a major component. Does any one have info?
NewDiscussionZones - S
One of the most brutal wipeouts occurred in Asian markets today.
China's stock market: -3.63%Korea's (KOSPI / $EWY) stock market: -6.49%Japan's (Nikkei) stock market: -3.48However if you look at Israel's Ta-125 stock market?+11.25% YTD and +67.21% 1Y. The US $SPY is down ~5% YTD, but faring better than their Asian counterparties. This data is very interesting since markets, not headlines, are usually the best largest indicators of:Winners and Losers of War. Especially with the ongoing energy conflict with the War in Iran.Source: Serenity
- S
It’s infuriating that so many people capitulated their positions.
Because of X influencer doomposters who are now pretending to be bullish on $Micron Tech(MU.US) or $EWY.Or Bank Analysts who have 0 clue what they’re talking about. 99.9% of this place was bearish and posted: - “KOPSI Crash”- “Memory charts look like Silver?”Or something along the lines of “Helium/LNG/Oil” on the way down.But now that $Sandisk(SNDK.US) and memory names are ATH (or getting close), everyone is now pretending to have been bullish all long.The vast, vast majority of X are extreme noise.Source: Serenity
- S
Weekend Macro playbook prediction:
1. US gonna do something bad to Iran2. Bunch of videos on X of stuff going up in flames3. Retail doomposters and Jim Cramer will say "$200 oil" parroting Iran state media over the weekend.4. People panic sell $EWY or $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) based on something random like Helium that have little material effect5. Crude Oil futures spike and stocks drop6. People glad they sold their shares after seeing impression farming doomposters claim Monday will be the worst day ever of the stock market.7. People capitulate the rest of their unrelated to Iran stocks overnight8. US Treasury/Gov pulls black magic and crude oil prices go down by market open9. Stocks go back up, and people chase to recover their lost positions. 10. Next Week GreenSource: Serenity
- M
$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) Looking at the trend of the US stock $ISHRS MSCI S Korea Capped(EWY.US), it's going to gap up at the open tomorrow. Friends who added to their positions these past two days have made some gains.