Wilmar

$Wilmar(F34.SG)

Context: During the last El Nino event in 2023-24, Wilmar oil palm production reduced only 1% but the stock fell from SG$3.66 to SG$3.10. The drop was mainly due to an investigation in China in which a palm oil trader cheated a Chinese state own enterprise for US$725 million; Wilmar subsidiary Yihai Kerry Arowana was implicated because they provided the storage where the oil palm was stored. There was another accusation that YKA did not clean up the cargo tankers that transported poisonous industrial chemical but use it to carry edible palm oil. YKA refuted both allegation. Wilmar has also claimed that for the coming El Nino season 2026-27, it will be impacted in palm oil production since up to 80% of their estate is in Kalimantan where long dry spell is expected.

My trade: bearish on Wilmar in 2027

My trade: The prediction of the coming super El Nino usually will drive up plantation stock since the dry spell will limit palm oil production but not all palm oil related stock are the same.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Wilmar(F34.SG)

Context: Wilmar has been accused of causing the haze that is coming from Indonesia. Wilmar has stated that as far back as 2015, it has established a "No Deforestation, No Peat, and No Exploitation" (NDPE) policy. Yet, the haze has never gone away and it has gone bad recently. At that time, Wilmar had also pressured Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK), a listed company in Malaysia by deploying suspend first policy. KLK does not have a zero-deforestation policy at that time and they are one of the sellers of palm oil to Wilmar and together with Wilmar both have large plantation estate in Indonesia. Wilmar has around 154,660 hectares of oil palm in Indonesia and Indonesia is more than half of all their global palm oil land bank.

My trade: bullish on Wilmar

Takeaway: Currently there is no evidence that Wilmar is responsible for the haze in Indonesia.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Wilmar(F34.SG)

Wilmar International: Hold, With Indonesia the Key Risk

Wilmar’s vertically integrated agribusiness—from plantations and crude palm oil (CPO, the unrefined palm oil extracted from fresh fruit bunches) to refining, food products, feed, oleochemicals and biodiesel—provides earnings diversification. Its Feed & Industrial segment remains an important profit contributor, while integrated sourcing can cushion commodity volatility. (Wilmar International⁠)

However, Ukraine and Middle East tensions could lift energy, grain and fertiliser costs, pressuring plantation and processing margins. Indonesia presents the larger structural risk. Its Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) requires palm-oil producers/exporters to allocate supply to Indonesia’s domestic market, supporting cooking-oil availability and prices rather than exporting the full volume. (Setkab⁠)

More importantly, Indonesia raised the CPO export levy to 12.5% from 10% in March 2026, increasing the cost of exporting palm oil and helping fund biodiesel subsidies. (Oils & Fats International⁠) Wilmar also faces heightened regulatory scrutiny, including a 2026 Indonesian probe into suspected export under-invoicing. (The Business Times⁠)

Investment view: HOLD. The diversified business supports resilience, but policy uncertainty caps upside. Existing investors should hold and collect dividends; aggressive investors can add on meaningful pullbacks, rather than chase strength. Trim only if Indonesian regulation materially erodes margins or technical momentum breaks down.

Not financial advice.

Indonesia has been giving headache to Wilmar again. In May, they were accused of under invoicing as much as 50% by the government. Later Kalimantan faced with decreased rain fall in Kalimantan resulting in lower yield of palm oil. Kalimantan has 80% of Wilmar oil palm plantation. The short fall will benefit Indonesia palm oil competitor like Malaysia. However, revenue for 2026H1 was still good at US$38.6 billion and profit before tax was up 13% YOY amounting to US$1.06 billion.$Wilmar(F34.SG)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Wilmar(F34.SG)- Signs of Stabilisation After Recent Weakness

Wilmar edged up 0.54% to close at $3.72, after opening at $3.70 and trading within a narrow range of $3.67–$3.73. The tighter price action suggests selling pressure has eased with buyers gradually returning to support the stock after its recent pullback.

While near term momentum remains neutral, Wilmar's fundamentals continue to provide support. The stock trades at an attractive P/B of 0.82 with a diversified agribusiness portfolio, resilient consumer food business, and stable cash generating operations. Improving palm oil prices, stronger refining margins, and a recovery in regional demand remain potential catalysts for the second half of the year

$Wilmar(F34.SG)$Golden Agri-Res(E5H.SG)$First Resources(EB5.SG)$Bumitama Agri(P8Z.SG)

☀️ Heat Wave on the Horizon: How to Play the Palm Oil Sector 🌴

In my previous post, I talked about how El Niño benefits palm oil stocks by creating a supply crunch.

Today, we are going to look into each of the major SGX-listed palm oil stocks. To understand exactly how they react to these changing weather patterns and where the best fundamental value lies.

Weather forecasts are pointing toward severe heat waves. For Palm oil industry, extreme heat dries up crop yields, tightens global supply, and sends Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices soaring. 🚀

However not all palm oil stocks are created equal. You need to know who wins when supply drops:

⭐️ The Top Pick: First Resources (SGX: EB5) - S$3.28

As a pure-play upstream grower, its earnings are highly sensitive to rising CPO prices. Thanks to its recent ANJ acquisition, its expanded geographic footprint gives it excellent operational resilience to handle localized weather shocks

P/E: ~11.1x | Yield: ~4.5%

💰 The Income Pick: Bumitama Agri (SGX: P8Z) - S$1.68

Boasting high-yielding, mature estates, BAL captures massive upside from spot prices. Plus, their newly upgraded 60%–75% dividend payout framework makes it a premier passive income play.

P/E: ~14.0x | Yield: ~5.6%

🔄 The Value Play: Golden Agri-Resources (SGX: E5H)- S$0.27

Deeply discounted on paper, but currently navigating a heavy, expensive replanting cycle. A longer-term turn-around play.

🛡 The Defensive Hedge: Wilmar International (SGX: F34) - S$3.70

A massive downstream food giant. Higher CPO prices actually increase their input costs, meaning they act as a stable consumer-staple hedge rather than a direct weather play.

Which strategy fits your portfolio? Are you hunting for high dividend yields or timing a technical breakout on CPO spot prices? Let’s discuss below! 👇

Not financial advice. Do your DD.

$Wilmar(F34.SG)Wilmar traded in a support driven consolidation today, with early selling pressure easing as buyers stepped in near the day's low. Although the stock remained below its opening level, the recovery from intraday weakness suggests demand is beginning to emerge around key support.

Trading activity was relatively subdued, indicating the pullback remains orderly rather than driven by aggressive selling. Overall the stock is stabilising after its recent correction with sentiment turning more balanced as investors watch for stronger buying momentum.Holding above the current support zone could provide a foundation for a gradual rebound

Wilmar has been involved in a series of scandals, here is a brief breakdown:

Apr 2024: Wilmar’s Indonesia subsidiaries has been fined Usd738mil for a palm oil export permit corruption case

Nov 2025: Wilmar’s subsidiary Yihai (Guangzhou) Oils & Grains Industries Co Ltd was ordered by Chinese authority to pay them around Usd270mil in fine for contractual fraud

May 2026: Wilmar’s related company in Russia has been seized by Russian court for breaching anti-corruption law, the company is valued at Usd310.9mi

May 2026: Wilmar is being suspected of under invoicing by the authority of Indonesia, investigation is still undergoing.

Wilmar is appealing all of the above cases with the respective authority. Its share price has plunged to under Sgd3 on Jun 18, 2026 but was able to recover a fair bit.

These cases exposed the lack of corporate governance in Wilmar.$Wilmar(F34.SG)

$Wilmar(F34.SG)Wilmar remains in a corrective phase with recent price action reflecting fading short term momentum after its earlier rally. The stock has been forming lower highs and lower lows as profit taking continues to outweigh fresh buying interest, while the break below recent support has kept sentiment cautious.

Despite the weakness, selling pressure remains orderly rather than aggressive suggesting the market is consolidating rather than undergoing a broad trend reversal. Overall, investors will be watching for buyers to defend the next support zone, as a successful hold could help stabilise sentiment and lay the foundation for the next recovery

$Wilmar(F34.SG)Wilmar traded in a mixed but largely corrective pattern this week with the stock giving back part of its recent gains as profit-taking emerged after a strong rally. Despite several sessions of selling pressure, buyers continued to defend key support levels, preventing a deeper pullback and keeping the broader structure intact.

Market appears to be digesting recent gains with sentiment remaining cautious as investors look for fresh catalysts to drive the next move. Overall Wilmar remains in a healthy consolidation phase and as long as support continues to hold the longer term uptrend remains constructive despite softer short term momentum