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Everyone is talking about the Fed’s decision and how they will certainly raise rates. Haha….If I am Warsh I will show who’s the boss and hold or best cut rates. Then hand over to Bessent to wait for the bond vigilantes to move and then buy, buy, buy short squeeze them all, sell Fort Knox’s gold as gold prices spike, throw the kitchen sink at the market!
Imagine the FUD shortlist’s reaction as they scramble to cover.
Mwahahahahaha! 😂
At 2am tomorrow, markets get the moment they've been building toward all week: the Fed's rate decision. Ahead of it, a 20-year Treasury auction just set a record yield of 5.42%, breaking the 2023 high...
$Gold.com(GOLD.US)$iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US)$AMD(AMD.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
📉 Why Chip Stocks and Gold Are Sinking Together
Semiconductor stocks and gold normally move independently. Currently, both are dropping for the same shared macro reason.
Yes. Shifting monetary policy and changing market narratives are hitting both assets at once.🫣
Here is what is driving today’s sell off.
1️⃣ AI Sentiment Shift.
Semiconductor stocks plunged after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for slower progress in frontier AI capabilities. Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis and Elon Musk also backed the view.
The SOXX ETF fell 5.5 percent. Micron dropped 6.2 percent and AMD lost 6.5 percent.
2️⃣ Rate Hike Pressure.
Next, Gold fell 1.7 percent as markets priced in an 89 percent chance of a Fed rate hike this Wednesday.
Hot CPI numbers and crude oil rising above 103 dollars a barrel pushed expectations higher.
3️⃣ Fundamentals Remain Strong
Reported earnings for major chipmakers are still growing and accelerating. The drop is mostly investors reducing risk ahead of the Fed decision and upcoming earnings releases.
📊See the full picture in the infographic.
Not financial advice . Please do your own DD😁.
Gold and reits continue to edge lower while banks close higher slightly after last week's continued drop in the Singapore market. We have also started to see higher interest rates and fd rates being offered in Singapore - a sign that rate hike will be arriving sooner than end of year? At least that's what majority is predicting with the probability at as high as 90%
US core CPI ran hot at +0.3% MoM (vs 0.2% expected), pushing September rate-hike odds from 69% to nearly 90% — Goldman's chief economist flipped his own call to a hike. The 10-year yield hit 4.957%, i...
🇺🇸 Fed Decision This Wednesday - What It Means for Singapore Investors
Here is the simple, clear breakdown from the infographic.
The Fed’s rate call this Wednesday (US Time) will move Singapore banks, gold and S-REITs.
If we look past the headline number the markets may have already price in a 25bp hike. The far bigger question is what the Fed signals about rates going forward ( Very important )😀.
🏦 Singapore Banks
A rate hike is not automatically bad. Higher rates can help stabilise net interest margins. Strong loan growth and fee income add extra support. DBS, OCBC, and UOB should stay relatively resilient.
🪙 Gold
Short-term headwinds remain. Higher US yields and a stronger dollar create pressure. But over the longer run, inflation, geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and fiscal concerns should keep supporting gold.
🏢 S-REITs
Higher bond yields weigh on valuations and refinancing costs. The recent pull back and selective REITs with strong balance sheets, mostly fixed-rate debt and sustainable payouts are starting to look attractive.
🎯 What I Am Watching
Ignore just the 25bp decision. Track US 10-year yields, the US Dollar and SORA because those three will tell you far more.
👉 See the full infographic for scenarios and key levels to watch Wednesday night.
Bottom line: Don’t trade the headline. Trade the shift in expectations.
Not financial advice. Please do your own DD.
Reits being hammered down daily, no end yet. ECB hike. BOJ soon. Fed will, too. Inevitable. Good for USD, bad for stocks / reits / gold. hmm..
Oracle fell -5.4% in Wednesday's session, dragged down by a hot US PPI print — then jumped as much as +7% after hours once its actual results landed: cloud infrastructure revenue +121%. That same PPI ...
ECB is putting pressure on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh by raising interest rates twice this year.
Meanwhile, the Hong Kong market continues to face selling pressure, especially AI-related stocks:
📉 Z.AI (HKG: 2513) is Down 73.83% from its peak, now at HK$267.4
📉 MiniMax Group (HKG: 0100) is Down 79.89% from its peak, now at HK$780
Is this a good time to buy? 🤔
Tonight we get the US CPI report. I expect high volatility. Gold and cryptocurrencies are likely to swing widely! Trade carefully.
Oracle fell -5.4% in Wednesday's session, dragged down by a hot US PPI print — then jumped as much as +7% after hours once its actual results landed: cloud infrastructure revenue +121%. That same PPI ...
US stocks searched for direction as Brent crude briefly crossed $100/bbl on escalating US-Iran attacks with no peace talks in sight, lifting gold, silver and bitcoin. 10-year treasury yields ticked higher in front of next week’s Fed meeting. Chip names gained; $Apple(AAPL.US) edged up ahead of its foldable-phone launch today and $Tesla(TSLA.US) slipped after recovering yesterday following last week’s uncertain Cybercab event. A strong August jobs report Friday has raised odds of a September Fed rate hike to 62%, although the I remain skeptical of a move two months before midterms. S&P 2026 earnings ests continue to rise on AI and energy, but at a 21.1x forward P/E the S&P 500 now yields less (4.7%) than 10yr Treasuries (normal equity premium 50-100bp). We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) given declining 2027-2030 earnings estimates, the continued commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a stretched valuation (220x forward P/E vs +35% long-term EPS growth, 6.3x PEG).
I love Apple smartphones but I am not a fan of the idea of a foldable iPhone😔. And frankly speaking I will never spend over US$2,000 on a phone like that! 🫣
Let’s wait for the official news first… who knows, it might end up cheaper than we expect 🤣
Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Tech Index has been under selling pressure these past few days. I seriously hoping for a recovery soon! It feels like stock markets across the globe, gold and cryptocurrencies are all just holding their breath, waiting for the Fed’s rate decision. 🫣
Apple's foldable iPhone launches tonight (1am SGT) in what Morgan Stanley calls its most consequential event since the iPhone X — but production is reportedly stuck at just hundreds of units a day. Se...
$Gold.com(GOLD.US)
🚨 Friday CPI = Make or Break for Gold. Here is Why 🚨
Friday’s Sept 11 CPI is not just a number. It is the final big clue before the Fed’s Sept 16 decision!
After a stronger than expected 162K jobs print, markets now price a 50%–66% chance of a rate hike.
Gold (~$4,400) is trading like a rate-sensitive momentum asset right now. It is tightly linked to the US Dollar and 10-year yields that are at 4.78%.
📉 Cool CPI (Core < 0.2%)
Hike odds drop sharply → gold bounces. Watch RSI turn up, could retest $4,500 resistance.
⚖️ In-Line CPI (Core ~ 0.25%)
Fed decision stays a coin toss.
Expect choppy, range-bound trade between $4,350–$4,470. Bollinger Bands likely tighten.
🔥 Hot CPI (Core > 0.3%)
Hike odds top 70% → USD spikes → gold drops toward $4,300 support. Watch Volume Delta to confirm real selling pressure.
Bottom line: Higher real yields = higher cost to hold zero-yield gold. The trend hinges entirely on this one print!
👉 What key levels are you watching? Let’s discuss below! 👇
Not financial advice. Do your own DD ☺️.
