JPMorgan Chase

JPM COLLAR ROLL TODAY!

Micron Technology $Micron Tech(MU.US) is experiencing one of the most explosive multi-quarter growth trajectories in semiconductor history, driven by structural shortages in artificial intelligence memory infrastructure.

Context

• Macro Environment: Micron is currently trading at $1,071.41, representing an approximate 240% climb year-to-date from its opening $315 level in January. The broader market is bracing for the company’s crucial Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings release, scheduled to drop after the closing bell today.

• Financial Explosion: Driven by high-bandwidth memory (HBM3e) and surging data center SSD demands, Wall Street consensus targets Q4 revenue at an all-time record $50.75 billion, which is an astronomical leap from just $11.31 billion a year ago. Gross margins are guided at a near-monopolistic 86%.

My trade

• The Setup: Historically, buying the absolute top of a structural memory cycle before capacity expands is highly dangerous. However, shorting outright is suicidal when JP Morgan indicates a massive, multi-billion dollar share buyback program could be announced during today’s call.

• The Strategy: I am executing an Options Long Straddle strategy expiring in two weeks, capturing the implied 6.5% standard deviation move priced by market makers.

Takeaway

• Valuation vs. Momentum: Micron is an incredible operational business trading at a historically tight Forward P/E of ~7.3x. Yet, it remains explicitly anchored to the brutal reality of the global commoditized silicon cycle.

• Risk Management: Never mistake a cyclical peak for a permanent linear runway. Treat Micron as a high-conviction momentum trade, but dynamic hedging (using protective put structures like Burry’s) is mandatory to survive the inevitable capacity cliff once supply catches up to AI demand in 2027.

SanDisk has been increase. Hope to buy more when dip.

Hope to get better return

Reports on Xi visit to Washington seem to be moderating expectations and suggesting just only modest trade and investment rather than major deals.

The visit is more symbolic than substance.

The contrasting signals highlight uncertainty around the semiconductor memory cycle. Rosenblatt’s bullish Sandisk view reflects expectations of sustained AI-driven storage and memory demand, while Michael Burry’s reported short positions indicate concern that capacity expansion could eventually create a memory glut. Sandisk’s sharp 6.8% rise suggests investors are currently responding positively to the bullish thesis, but elevated valuations and future supply growth remain key risks. For the broader memory and AI semiconductor sector, upcoming pricing trends, inventory levels, capital expenditure and demand visibility will be important in determining whether current growth expectations are sustainable.

While Wall Street's aggressive targets for the memory and AI chip sectors highlight huge structural demand, Michael Burry's short thesis serves as a sharp reminder of cyclical volatility. Balancing immediate momentum with long-term risk management is key here

I think the MAS news that a stress test was conducted on SG listed companies and found that a third of them were at risk of severe AI downturn is a warning for corporations. The stress test subjected companies listed on the Singapore Exchange to revenue shocks of as much as 30 per cent and interest-rate shocks of up to 400 basis points, calibrated according to the individual firm’s exposure to the AI supply chain. MAS defined an at-risk company as one with an interest coverage ratio of below one, or negative cashflow with cash buffers that cover less than six months of the shortfall. However, most balance sheets are generally sound due to their earnings and cash reserves. But this is also a stark warning to corporations that rushing to adapt the latest technologies/strategies may not always be the most efficient as businesses need to evaluate how, the AI in this case, may bring benefits along their supply chain against the costs of adapting this new technology.

I missed the boat? Shall see how the upcoming mid-term election bring in the volatility again! There will be opportunities again 😎

SanDisk, a giant storage play. now someone says that the target price is Two Thousand Four Hundred dollars, a Thirty Six percent upside from last night's closed price. Do you believe him ?