Oracle

$Oracle(ORCL.US)

Context: Recent debates in the AI industry surrounding the pace of advanced model development have intensified, putting Oracle under renewed market scrutiny. As Oracle aggressively expands its cloud infrastructure and maintains close business ties with AI clients such as OpenAI, the market is growing concerned that if frontier AI labs slow down model R&D or cut related spending, it could further impact demand for cloud computing and AI compute power. Oracle is transitioning from a traditional database software company into an AI infrastructure provider, and OpenAI is one of the most critical customers in this transformation. The closer their relationship becomes, the more pronounced the impact of changes in OpenAI's fundraising, model development, and compute spending will be on Oracle's valuation.

My Trade: I have been focusing on other stocks and hasn't touch Oracle for quite a long time now since my cost is so high. However, I am now interested to lower my average, waiting for Oracle to drop to $120+

Takeaway: Oracle's long term plan is still intact, and the structure is looking good as they start to accelerate towards clearing their debt. However, their close ties with OpenAI can be a double-edged sword; as seen a few days ago when Sam Altman calls for slower AI development, Oracle's share price also dropped along with news of them cutting workers. @Captain's Treasure

$Oracle(ORCL.US)

Context:

I started a position in ORCL yesterday after watching the recent pullback.

What caught my attention is the contrast between the stock price and the business momentum. Oracle just reported 30% revenue growth, while its cloud infrastructure business grew 121%. At the same time, the market is clearly still uncomfortable with how much capital is being committed to AI infrastructure and what that means for cash flow.

My Trade:

I decided to start with a position rather than trying to guess where the exact bottom is. For me, this trade is less about catching a quick rebound and more about watching whether Oracle can actually turn its huge AI and cloud commitments into sustainable growth.

Takeaway:

Strong growth numbers alone don’t remove execution risk. Sometimes the more interesting setups are when the business looks strong but the market is still questioning the cost of getting there.

Talks about slowing down AI is nothing new. It is indeed warranted that development has to be done in a responsible way. but this isn't something that will actually slow anyone down. a lot od noise, pullback is good for entry.

The rate of progress in AI has been unprecedented and unmatched. The fear is that we can lose control of the technology and create something that can be a danger to us. This may sound like a familiar plotline from one of the movies that Hollywood churned out in the past but I think it is a very valid concern. Our laws are also having to play catch up.

With the emergence of a second war in the middle east, analysts are forecasting 2 rate hikes this year instead of the original 1. A high 90% probability of rate hike in a few days' time would probably see FED raising interest rate for the first time since 2023. Though I would not be surprised if Trump's pressure on FED leads to them holding off for yet another period of time before the inevitable will happen.

I think today's trading session would be the calm before the storm, with most stocks already in "the sea of red" yesterday. FED'S rate decision on Thurs early morning would be crucial: though I believe most stock prices have already started pricing in rate hike, of it does happen, brace yourself for more impact.

Many factors that tell the narrative that if the market will hike rates and triple witching then markets most likely drop more. However, will the general market be a drop then rebound next week or more selling gets more selling pressure due to it being in negative gamma flip line? Don't rush, don't predict. Chill and sit out if the market is too rushed for you(myself) included.

Wednesday, tomorrow night, is the Federal Reserve going to hike the interest rate ? Is the US market also expected the rate hike ?

Big Week Ahead With FOMC & BOJ Meetings

If you thought the market tremors earlier this year was intense, this super central bank week could trigger an even sharper selloff.

Cross border Yen borrowing - the ultimate engine of the carry trade balloons to a massive 360 trillion yen or USD 2.35 trillion. Global macro traders have used this incredibly cheap debt to finance riskier, high yielding assets worldwide, especially tech giants.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to aggressively lift its policy rate on Friday to 1.25%. This marks the fastest tightening sequence in half a century. The era of virtually free money in Japan is over.

Fasten our seatbelts. It is going to be a bumpy ride this week.

All the stories and fear about AI could just be noise. US wont slow down given that China isnt slowing down. 1-2 hikes in 2026? Maybe chance to buy the dip, if any, if drops further short term.