Dacai

$Apple(AAPL.US)

Context:

Last Friday saw a drop of -2.51%, breaching MA10 briefly before pushing up and closing at 319.97. I can’t attach a photo of the chart analysis as I have to select holdings under the current Trade Showcase activity rules and showing holdings and adding photo can’t be done at the same time.

The uptrend channel is still intact for now but I wouldn’t add at current price yet as there is a chance it may fall further to 306 which is the lower limit of the uptrend channel and it is still above the middle of the Bollinger Band. The next support level is 300.

Apple’s “Surprise and Shine” event on 9 Sep is CEO John Ternus’s first product event. While the Apple ecosystem has a strong moat and its services income remains robust, there are some concerns that higher component costs which lead to higher prices will dampen the sale numbers of the new models. The reception to Termus’s first product event is therefore an important gauge of short term trading sentiments.

My Trade: Nil. Still observing for my next entry point.

Takeaway: Monitor how the stock price reacts to the “Surprise and Shine” event.

Investor traits quiz

$Suntec Reit(T82U.SG)

The Context: The price today has dropped to 1.49 which is a somewhat bearish sign as it is more than 50% pullback from the recent high of 1.58. The just released personal consumption expenditure price index for July is 3.7%, higher than 3.6% in June when the target is 2% so the probability of a rate hike in September has increased from 36% to 44%. This may put some pressure on reit prices in the near term but I think the rate may be kept the same since the US is also trying to balance the cost of servicing its 40-trillion-dollar debt.

My Trade: Continue to hold.

Takeaway: Expectations of interest rate changes can affect the stock price in the short term but if the fundamentals have not changed drastically, there is no need to sell.

$Suntec Reit(T82U.SG)

Context: After reaching 1.58, Suntec Reit has retreated to 1.51-1.52 which is a healthy pullback in my humble opinion. Treasury yields have been falling due to bond buy backs by the US Treasury. If interests rates are eased instead of being hiked, this will be a positive catalyst for reits.

My Trade: Continue to hold and let the dividends reduce my position cost.

Takeaway: Doing nothing is a strategy too.

$Suntec Reit(T82U.SG)

Context: Way to go, Suntec Reit does not disappoint as it makes another new high today! You can see from the charts the price of Suntec Reit has been quite stable and one of the better performers out of the other S-reits. I believe this is because its DPU has proven to be resilient. If I sell now, it is like free money as after ex-dividend, it has continued to go up.

My Trade: Nothing although it is very tempting to take partial profits.

Takeaway: Don’t sell the winners.