$Oracle(ORCL.US)
Will this be next AL goldmine or money land mine ?
What's on your mind?
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
Will this be next AL goldmine or money land mine ?
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
Oracle: AI Goldmine or Cash-Flow Trap?
Project Jupiter puts Oracle firmly in the AI infrastructure race, but the price of that ambition is heavy. FY2026 revenue rose 17% to US$67.4bn, yet free cash flow swung to -US$23.7bn as capex ballooned to US$55.7bn.
The bull case remains compelling: Oracle’s backlog reached US$638bn, while management expects FY2027 revenue of about US$90bn. But Jupiter’s power-pipeline delay highlights the key risks—execution, financing, construction costs and when these investments actually translate into cash.
Analysts remain broadly positive, though targets vary sharply, reflecting concerns over valuation and capital intensity.
View: HOLD, not chase. Meaningful accumulation would be closer to US$135–145, where risk/reward improves.
For option writers, I prefer a bullish cash-secured put over buying calls: 30–60 DTE, around 0.20–0.30 delta, targeting US$125–135 strikes. If assigned, covered calls around US$165–180 could monetise the rebound.
The AI opportunity is real—but Jupiter has to turn billions of capex into billions of cash flow.
Not financial advice.
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
Oracle: AI Goldmine or Cash-Flow Trap?
Project Jupiter puts Oracle firmly in the AI infrastructure race, but the price of that ambition is heavy. FY2026 revenue rose 17% to US$67.4bn, yet free cash flow swung to -US$23.7bn as capex ballooned to US$55.7bn.
The bull case remains compelling: Oracle’s backlog reached US$638bn, while management expects FY2027 revenue of about US$90bn. But Jupiter’s power-pipeline delay highlights the key risks—execution, financing, construction costs and when these investments actually translate into cash.
Analysts remain broadly positive, though targets vary sharply, reflecting concerns over valuation and capital intensity.
View: HOLD, not chase. Meaningful accumulation would be closer to US$135–145, where risk/reward improves.
For option writers, I prefer a bullish cash-secured put over buying calls: 30–60 DTE, around 0.20–0.30 delta, targeting US$125–135 strikes. If assigned, covered calls around US$165–180 could monetise the rebound.
The AI opportunity is real—but Jupiter has to turn billions of capex into billions of cash flow.
Not financial advice.
Oracle’s Jupiter is a massive AI bet, but the road won’t be smooth. Power shortages, a delayed gas pipeline, rising construction costs, huge funding needs and execution risk could pressure margins and cash flow. I’m bullish on the long-term AI demand, but Jupiter must prove it can deliver.
Aug 19 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry
1) Market chatter suggests China may ease import curbs on Nvidia H200 chips, lifting sentiment across compute plays. If enacted, the policy would ease the domestic compute crunch, enabling cloud vendors and LLM developers to scale, and would be positive for Nvidia's China shipments. For now it's only market chatter with no official documentation, so expectations may miss; watch for the final rules and quota sizes.2) The Zhuque-3 Y2 launch vehicle ignited at the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Test Zone. It then lifted off...
Aug 19 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry
1) Market chatter suggests China may ease import curbs on Nvidia H200 chips, lifting sentiment across compute plays. If enacted, the policy would ease the domestic compute crunch, enabling cloud vendors and LLM developers to scale, and would be positive for Nvidia's China shipments. For now it's only market chatter with no official documentation, so expectations may miss; watch for the final rules and quota sizes.2) The Zhuque-3 Y2 launch vehicle ignited at the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Test Zone. It then lifted off...
Anthropic has just surpassed OpenAI in quarterly revenue for the first time, with revenue more than doubling — just three months ago, OpenAI was still the clear leader.The year-over-year numbers look ...
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
Oracle has steadily recovered from its low of near $100. The upward trajectory is slow because capex concerns remain. Give it time. It is not a broken business but paying for a major transition. That said, i do have a keep or sell decision on 31/12.
When Nvidia announced Spectrum-X switches built with CPO (co-packaged optics) have entered mass production, it named 4 Taiwan firms among partners, TSMC, Foxconn, ASE and Browave as well as China’s leading optics firm, TFC Communication, media report, and multiple firms say their order books are already full through 2027 and expect supplies to be tight into 2028.
CoreWeave, Lambda and Oracle will become the first to deploy the 200Gbps/lane CPO Ethernet switch system, billed for a big leap in performance:5x improvement in network power efficiency5x increase in continuous AI uptime10x extension in Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF)Up to 1.6x overall AI network performance boost, supports 100s of 1000s of GPUsTSMC and Foxconn are expected to play key roles, with TSMC leading production via its COUPE silicon photonics engine platform, which integrates components that are then packaged by ASE and use Browave’s optical components. Foxconn does final assembly of the CPO switches.Foxconn Chairman Young Liu has said CPO switch shipment volumes will reach 10,000 units this year, with 2027 shipments multiplying several times over.Taiwan’s FOCI and ShunSin have secured key niches in the supply chain, with FOCI’s expertise in Fiber Array Units (FAU) and ShunSin’s advanced packaging mass production prowess, media say, calling them key winners further down the supply chain. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US)Source: Dan Nystedt
$Oracle(ORCL.US)Oracle is definitely testing my patience here 😅 Currently sitting at a -17.39% P/L, with the market price at 148.570 versus my average cost of 180.032. The chart has been quite a journey, but I’m trying not to let short-term volatility change my original investment view. For now, I’m staying patient and watching Oracle’s fundamentals, growth potential and future earnings closely. Sometimes the hardest part of investing is simply waiting for the thesis to play out. 📈
🏢☁️ Why Oracle Is Becoming Interesting in Quantum ComputingWhen beginners think about Oracle (ORCL), they usually think about da...
Quanta, the AI server giant, said order visibility extends into 2028, and the CFO is “very excited” about the next 2-years, at its 2nd quarter investors’ conference, media report:
-Capex raised to NT$40 billion from NT$30 billion-AI server capacity will double by end-2026 vs last year.-2028 AI server capacity to double again vs 2026.-AI servers accounted for 75-80% of total server revenue-In the 3rd quarter, AI server revenue will grow by a double-digit percent vs Q2-For full year 2026, AI server revenue will double vs 2025-Top 5 CSPs/Hyperscalers are all Quanta clients-It has also won AI server and ASIC server orders from Neo Clouds-Quanta made a US$973 million cash injection into US operations for further expansion-Full year laptop shipments are expected to drop by a double digit % $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US) #AIservers #laptopsSource: Dan Nystedt
In IPO news… Vantage Data Centers is exploring going public at an enormous $100B valuation.
If you’re not familiar, $Oracle(ORCL.US) is their anchor tenant for Stargate (OpenAI end user), and Vantage develops/operates hyperscaler DCs.Anthropic IPO is also expected, with investors expecting $2T valuation, eclipsing $SpaceX(SPCX.US) per FT.Yeah… idk about Anthropic valuations. Jim Cramer defending that valuation is never a good sign. On a side note, Opus 5 is probably the worst consumer LLM I’ve used to date, it’s like a 5 IQ LLM operating off terrible data retrieval. With a Fable-like God complex on top.Enterprise is probably having a better time though. Unitree IPO is also expected this month and priced it at a $9B valuation. Which is a positive tailwind for Unitree for the humanoid sectors. Not really an AI name but SHEIN is going public as soon as the 19th this month.Go ask any girl you know and they’re probably familiar with this platform.BURRY:
- I SHORTED MORE $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US) & $Nebius(NBIS.US) TODAY- NEBIUS IS WHAT THE TOP OF A BOOM LOOKS LIKE - DEPRECIATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN, THE SAME THING THAT EXTENDED THE DOT COM BUBBLE looks like he’s doubling downSource: amit
Breaking: Michael Burry has disclosed his updated positions
He:• Added to Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) shorts at $247• Added to Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) short at $924• Added to Oracle $Oracle(ORCL.US) short at $152• Added to Semiconductor ETF $SOXX shorts• Added to Mercado Libre $Mercadolibre(MELI.US) longs at $1850• Added to Zoetis $Zoetis(ZTS.US) long at $73.60Michael Burry said "Nebius is what the top of a boom looks like" expecting the AI crash is incomingSCHWAB CLIENTS IN JULY WERE NET BUYERS BY A 2:1 RATIO IN ETFS AND EQUITIES.
Top stocks bought: - $SpaceX(SPCX.US)- $Micron Tech(MU.US)- $Intel(INTC.US)- $Oracle(ORCL.US)- $Tesla(TSLA.US)Top stocks sold:- $Apple(AAPL.US)- $Broadcom(AVGO.US)- $Adobe(ADBE.US)- $Paypal(PYPL.US)- $AMD(AMD.US)Source: amit
$Oracle(ORCL.US)Burry re-entered a direct short position on Oracle around $145 per share. Oracle shares previously jumped toward $350 during last year's AI rally before pulling back significantly over growing market concerns about data center debt burdens. While Oracle's future contract backlog grew 363% over the past year, Burry remains skeptical about its long-term financial path. He previously called Oracle's large spending strategy "a Homeresque own goal by a modern deity," arguing that the software firm took on unnecessary financial risks to chase cloud growth. Oracle's roughly $130 billion net debt has historically been a "red flag" for investors wary of aggressive capital allocation and the situation is now becoming more complicated, as cloud infrastructure providers dramatically increase capital spending to support the AI boom while the returns from those investments become ever more uncertain.
Meanwhile, Oracle's rising spending is putting pressure on its financial position. Net interest expense is gradually increasing, while free cash flow has fallen deeply into negative territory despite strong operating cash flow. Although operating income remains sufficient to cover higher borrowing costs and capital expenditures could theoretically be reduced, the market is growing more concerned about how long Oracle and its peers will need to maintain exceptionally high levels of spending to compete in the AI race. @Captain's Treasure
$Oracle(ORCL.US)Oracle has been a challenging position so far, currently sitting at -16.59%, with the market price around $150.08 versus my average cost of $180.03. 📉
Despite the drawdown, I’m staying patient and keeping my focus on the bigger picture rather than reacting emotionally to short-term volatility. Oracle remains a company I’m willing to hold through the ups and downs, and I’ll continue monitoring its fundamentals, growth prospects, and future catalysts. The current loss is uncomfortable, but the investment thesis isn’t necessarily broken. 💪📊
A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:1. Fed Governor Kevin Warsh would be open to a September rate hike if upcoming inflation data comes in hot and markets begin pricing in higher borrowing costs, according to people familiar with his thinking. The report adds to the renewed focus on whether the Fed may have to turn more hawkish if inflation pressure reaccelerates.2. Michael Burry reportedly opened large short positions in Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) at $211.77 and Oracle $Oracle(ORCL.US) at $144.63, marking the first time he has taken a position in $Nebius(NBIS.US). Burry framed the trade around AI infrastructure leverage and off-balance-sheet obligations, saying: “The fish have gorged themselves on off-balance sheet liabilities. Backstops. Uncommenced leases. Purchase commitments. The fish have gotten very fat, very large, easy to shoot. Also, so large that it shan’t be long before every last one keels over for lack of oxygen.”3. Applied Optoelectronics $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $191.9M, slightly ahead of estimates of $190M and up 86% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.06 versus $0.01 expected, while non-GAAP net income reached $5.5M, above estimates of $1.7M. For Q3, the company guided revenue to $255M–$290M versus $278M expected, with EPS of $0.11–$0.26 and non-GAAP gross margin of 29%–30.5%. Management said AAOI delivered record revenue for the 5th consecutive quarter and returned to non-GAAP profitability, while noting that demand is expected to outpace production capacity through mid-2027.4. The June JOLTS report showed job openings easing by 178,000 to 7.359M, missing estimates of 7.454M, though openings remain above the January 2020 level of 7.124M. The openings-to-unemployed ratio edged up to 1.04, the highest since January 2025. Hiring improved, with hires rising 96,000 to 5.348M and the hiring rate increasing to 3.4%, led by health care and construction. Quits, a key measure of labor market confidence, rose 79,000 to 3.232M, the highest in nearly a year, while layoffs were essentially flat at 1.766M with the layoff rate unchanged at 1.1%.5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.9M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.3M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 820K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 690K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 586K contracts, $Hertz Global(HTZ.US) with 584K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 477K contracts, and $Energy Transfer LP(ET.US) with 473K contracts.6. Private business investment in AI-related categories jumped $300B YoY in Q2 2026, up 25% to a record $1.5T annualized rate. The increase was led by spending on computers and peripheral equipment, followed by communication equipment, software, and data centers. Over the last two years, AI-related business investment has surged $500B, or 50%, with investment in computers and peripherals more than doubling. Direct AI investment is now estimated to account for 25%–33% of recent U.S. GDP growth.7. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is reportedly planning to raise money through a U.S. investment-grade bond offering. The company has started marketing notes in as many as 10 parts, with maturities ranging from 2 years to 40 years, according to Bloomberg. Initial price talk for the longest-dated tranche is around 1.55 percentage points above Treasuries.8. Tether purchased 14 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, bringing total holdings to a record 146 tonnes, now worth roughly $18.8B. The company previously bought 53 tonnes between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, with its gold holdings more than doubling since Q1 2025 and their value nearly tripling over the same period. Tether is now the largest known private holder of gold outside of central banks and governments. In the first half of 2026, only 4 central banks bought more gold than Tether: Poland, Uzbekistan, China, and Kazakhstan.9. Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) founder Jeff Bezos filed for the sale of 1,209,649 Amazon shares at $286.41 per share. The transaction brought in roughly $346.5M before taxes.10. U.S. data center construction spending jumped 46% YoY in June to a record $68B annualized rate, the largest annual increase in 12 months. Since January 2024, spending has surged 158% and is now more than 3x higher than 2022 levels. At the same time, office construction spending has fallen by more than $25B since 2022 to roughly $43B, the lowest since 2016. Data center construction now exceeds office construction by $25B, the widest gap on record, a massive reversal from 2022 when office construction was $57B higher than data centers.11. Trading activity in the Memory ETF $DRAM has surged to extreme levels, with daily volume reaching as high as roughly $8B, surpassing the $5B peak that ARKK hit during its 2020–2021 mania. Cumulative flows into $DRAM have climbed to around $27B, already above ARKK’s peak of roughly $18B, despite DRAM only launching in April 2026. The comparison is not perfect since DRAM tracks profitable memory chip companies rather than the mostly unprofitable growth names that dominated ARKK, and today’s rate environment is very different from 2020. Still, ARKK’s flows eventually peaked and reversed for years, while $DRAM is already down nearly 40% from its June high.12. Alibaba $Alibaba(BABA.US) reportedly plans to seek revenue sharing for the next version of its open-source Qwen AI model, while Moonshot is asking partners for up to a 30% revenue share for its Kimi K3 model, according to Reuters. The move suggests China’s leading AI labs are starting to push harder on monetization as open-source model adoption scales.WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.Source: amit
$Oracle(ORCL.US)
Oracle is the last SAP giant that has yet to wake up. Cash flow is tight due to capex but every other SaaS is spending as well. It is about keeping up with the competition. Get in now before results show!
#Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards!
⚡ 𝐔𝐏𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄: $Bloom Energy(BE.US) Bloom Energy Expands Partnership With MiTAC to Power AI Server Manufacturing
👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:➤ 𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗺 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 will deploy a fuel cell microgrid at 𝗠𝗶𝗧𝗔𝗖'𝘀 Fremont campus.➤ Microgrid will power MiTAC's 𝗔𝗜 𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝗿 manufacturing operations.➤ Project expands Bloom's contracted onsite power across 𝘁𝘄𝗼 California sites.➤ Bloom now serves nearly 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗱𝗼𝘇𝗲𝗻 AI infrastructure customers.➤ Bloom's AI infrastructure portfolio totals approximately 𝟮𝟱𝟬 𝗠𝗪 of capacity.➤ Fuel cell systems will operate as an 𝗶𝘀𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗺𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗱.➤ Project supports expanding AI server production as demand accelerates.➤ Bloom says fuel cells provide fast-deploying, reliable onsite power.➤ Bloom has also deployed fuel cells for customers including 𝗔𝗘𝗣, 𝗕𝗿𝗼𝗼𝗸𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱, 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘅, 𝗡𝗲𝗯𝗶𝘂𝘀, and 𝗢𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗹𝗲.👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:➤ Highlights rising power demand across the AI infrastructure supply chain.➤ Reinforces Bloom's growing position in onsite power for AI infrastructure.➤ Demonstrates manufacturers are adopting onsite energy to avoid grid constraints.➤ Expands Bloom's exposure to the fast-growing AI infrastructure market.👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁:𝗔𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗝𝗼𝘀𝗵𝗶, Chief Commercial Officer at Bloom Energy:“As the buildout of AI infrastructure accelerates, demand for power is growing at every layer of the ecosystem. We're seeing that demand translate into rapid customer adoption. Today, Bloom serves nearly two dozen AI infrastructure customers with approximately 250 MW of capacity, from a running start of nearly zero in this segment just two years ago. Projects like MiTAC demonstrate that Bloom is the standard for onsite power, helping customers – from data centers to advanced manufacturers – move faster and build the infrastructure powering the AI economy.”Breaking: Michael Burry has opened a bearish position in Oracle and Nebius
He: • Shorted Oracle $Oracle(ORCL.US) at $144.63• Shorted Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) at $211.77