amit

IRAN AGREES TO SUSPEND URANIUM ENRICHMENT IN EXCHANGE FOR U.S. SANCTIONS RELIEF — AL HADATH

- MEDIATORS ARE PRESSURING IRAN TO MAKE CONCESSIONS ON ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

- IRAN HAS AGREED TO HALT URANIUM ENRICHMENT IN EXCHANGE FOR RELIEF FROM U.S. SANCTIONS.

Al Hadath is the Saudi Arabian state-owned news agency…markets liking it but we need a real deal to come to fruition now, if Iran is actually willing to give up uranium enrichment for sanctions relief…that could be meaningful progress on the potential for a deal.

Source: amit

U.S. OFFICIAL TELLS AL JAZEERA THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS PREPARED TO EASE SANCTIONS AND RELEASE FROZEN IRANIAN ASSETS IF TEHRAN MAKES MEANINGFUL PROGRESS ON THE NUCLEAR ISSUE

If you are wondering why we just got a nice little green spike…that’s why 😆

if they just keep negotiating we can buy the dip when the negotiations fail and sell the rip when the negotiations start every day 😂

Source: amit

pretty weird way to start off the last trading week of September, but then again every week has been very weird with what’s happening in the macro.

- 10yr jumps to 5.27%, 52 week high

- $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) announces $150 buyback and pumps

- $Meta Platforms(META.US) announces a new AI enterprise business platform and poached the $MongoDB(MDB.US) CEO

- $SpaceX(SPCX.US) completes the first revenue generating Orbital launch for Starship

then after market open…

- semis all dump except $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) meaning the confidence of the buyback didn’t extend into the broader sector

- $Meta Platforms(META.US) dumps 5% on what should be very bullish news for them bringing agents to the enterprise but the semis ALSO dump even though more business agents = more compute so that was weird

- $IGV dumps because Meta is now getting into the enterprise so your software names get hit, but the thing creating the hit (Meta) is down and semis which should benefit from Meta are also down when they usually are up when SaaS is down

- then $SpaceX(SPCX.US) loses all momentum and seemingly takes $Tesla(TSLA.US) down with it today

no trend or sector trend, just confusion across the board but still a relatively resilient market as $SPY has spent 40 sessions not down 1% or more and even with yields up, the market is not giving out which speaks to how strong the earnings story continues to be.

Source: amit

WSJ:

- TRUMP REJECTS IRAN SEVEN-DAY CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL

- TRUMP EXPECTS TO RESUME BOMBING AFTER MIDTERMS

- IRAN PROPOSAL SOUGHT SANCTIONS RELIEF, BLOCKADE LIFT TO REOPEN HORMUZ

- U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS TANKER FLOW THROUGH HORMUZ LESSENS DEAL URGENCY

a literal roller coaster

Source: amit

the reason the administration is not doing anything about bond yields, in my opinion, is because the stock market is up.

when did trump pivot policy in the past?

- 2025, SPY down 30% (lol), trump pivots on reciprocal tariffs

- 2026, SPY down 9.7%, trump gets a ceasefire with Iran

the market is barely off from ATHs. if people were feeling it in their 401ks, like really feeling the pain, the admin would be doing something about it. that's what they use to judge themselves. bond yields keep going up and the market continuing to give trump the benefit of the doubt means he and besssent probably think they have more time and don't have to take action as quickly.

if stocks were to really, really dump...then historical evidence shows us that Trump would pivot. if they don't, then the resiliency of the market will continue to fight the Fed and give Trump time to eventually end the war.

Source: amit

saw two screenshots come across my feed

one was someone top blasting $Meta Platforms(META.US)

the other was someone locking in a 7% coupon buying $Oracle(ORCL.US) bonds expiring in 2050 lol

both retail investors

talk about a divided market

you can’t hate the AI trade because it is still THE trade…but you can’t deny that these yields going up like a memestock might eventually catch up to the market

if the AI trade is going to fight the Fed by hyper scalers offering yields higher than a US 10/30 year bond (which has been part of the reason for the competition for capital pushing US treasury yields higher) then maybe we will have to get used to higher yields in general…

id still rather buy growth stocks over bonds though 😂 generational technology being built in front of us with an annoying macro but the macro can change, the fundamentals on this buildout aren’t going away that easily

Source: amit

$Meta Platforms(META.US) this move is kind of ridiculous bro

+40% in a month and +14% in a week on a Mag 7 multi trillion dollar company

all it took was a normie version of open claw 😂

is anyone trimming? or selling calls?

my only fear is the equity raise but we still don’t know if that will happen & if it does and we stay rangebound in the $750s, not a good enough reason to sell

only reason to sell is if you see this going back to $680 but the vibez have shifted, zucks is being seen as the cool AI guy and people want to bet on his vision again

hard to see this momentum get faded that easily vs a run to $800 which means maybe trimming here isn’t the best idea

but +40% in a week at this scale could mean we give back some of the gains easily just due to how heavy this move has been

fundamentals are just looking really, really strong and Muse doesn’t even have 100M users yet so the growth curve is literally just beginning for a potential new multi-billion user product

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 5.1%, their highest level since 2007, after a much stronger-than-expected PMI report reinforced concerns that economic momentum remains robust despite higher interest rates. Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMI all reached their strongest readings since 2022 or 2021, with the Composite PMI coming in at 57 versus expectations of 53, signaling continued strength in consumer spending, employment, and business investment. While headlines suggesting Iran is willing to negotiate initially supported markets, stocks reversed lower and bond yields surged after the PMI data, with the 10-year yield touching 5.11%. The report raised concerns that inflation could prove more persistent than simply an energy-driven story, increasing the possibility that the Fed could continue tightening even if oil prices continue to ease. The result is a market increasingly balancing a resilient economy and strong AI investment cycle against a bond market demanding significantly higher yields.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) unveiled a major expansion of its AI hardware lineup at Meta Connect, including new $1,299 VR glasses that weigh just 100 grams by moving the battery and compute into an external pack, making them roughly one-third the price of Apple's Vision Pro. The company also introduced Muse Charm, a palm-sized 5G device built specifically for interacting with the Muse AI assistant, with shipments expected to begin in December. Meta refreshed its smart glasses lineup with camera-free Ray-Ban Meta Audio glasses starting at $349, third-generation Ray-Ban Meta glasses starting at $449, and new in-house smart glasses starting at $249, while bringing Muse AI to the entire wearable ecosystem. Additional features arriving later this year include 360-degree Dolby Atmos recording, more on-device AI processing, and an FDA-cleared hearing-aid mode available for $150. Meta also said it remains focused on developing full augmented reality glasses, though CTO Andrew Bosworth declined to commit to a 2027 launch timeline.

3. Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) plans to invest $10B across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE through 2030 to expand its regional cloud and AI infrastructure. The total includes Microsoft's previously announced $7.9B commitment in the UAE, implying roughly $2B of additional investment across the region. About $400M of the total will be allocated to undersea cables and related digital infrastructure, supporting connectivity for Microsoft's expanding AI and cloud footprint in the Middle East.

4. SemiAnalysis said $Coreweave(CRWV.US) CoreWeave remains the technical benchmark for neoclouds, with best-in-class reliability, health checks, bring-up processes, and fleet-scale operational experience, while $Nebius(NBIS.US) Nebius has moved into the Platinum tier as a strong all-around operator that can command premium pricing, win major hyperscaler deals, and serve smaller AI labs despite still trailing CoreWeave technically. On $IREN(IREN.US) IREN, SemiAnalysis was much more critical, saying its Prince George and Mackenzie sites in Northern Canada have been associated with outages, network upgrades, storage failures, link flaps, and XIDs, while recommending IREN focus on bare-metal offerings rather than marketing managed clusters or inference endpoints.

5. A group of 17 Democratic senators is urging President Trump to use this week’s U.S.–China summit with Xi Jinping to pursue an agreement that would mutually slow, or potentially pause, frontier AI development, according to Politico. The letter, led by Sen. Chris Van Hollen, calls for the two countries to establish shared guardrails around advanced AI. President Trump has publicly taken a different position, saying the U.S. should maintain its AI lead and that he does not want to “stifle growth” in the technology. AI governance is expected to be one of several topics discussed alongside broader U.S.–China relations during the summit.

6. McDonald’s $McDonald's(MCD.US) unveiled its 2030 financial and operating targets, aiming for a low-to-mid 50% operating margin and roughly 250 basis points of restaurant-level efficiency improvements through its new McDonald’s > NEXT strategy. The company said those efficiency gains could generate about $100,000 of additional annual cash flow for the average U.S. restaurant, with most of the benefit flowing directly to franchisees. McDonald’s also plans to provide about $8.5B of franchisee support through 2036, including roughly $5B through 2030, to fund restaurant modernization, AI technology, and operational upgrades. The strategy includes the rollout of GenAI-powered ArchIQ, targets a 1.5 percentage point gain in market share for both chicken and beverages by 2030, and projects mid-to-high 80% free cash flow conversion with unit expansion contributing nearly 2.5% to systemwide sales growth in 2027.

7. Supermicro $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) has begun shipping NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 racks, each featuring 72 Rubin GPUs, 36 Vera CPUs, 20.7TB of HBM4 memory, and 216TB/s of NVLink scale-up bandwidth. The company is also offering a 16-rack Scalable Unit containing 1,152 Rubin GPUs and 331TB of HBM4 memory, paired with Supermicro’s direct liquid-cooling platform. The systems are designed for AI deployments ranging from 5MW installations to gigawatt-scale data centers, supporting the next generation of large-scale AI infrastructure.

8. Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) is launching always-on AI agents for third-party sellers, upgrading Seller Assistant with new “workflows” that can continuously monitor and act on pricing, inventory, listings, and account health, even when sellers are offline. Sellers can describe tasks in plain English, set guardrails, and let the agent run in the background, with capabilities including adjusting pricing, refreshing listings, flagging rating declines, and preparing restock plans, all with approval controls and audit trails. Amazon is also introducing a Seller Assistant plugin for Amazon Quick and Anthropic’s Claude, allowing sellers to access Amazon sales, inventory, and performance data directly within those AI tools and take actions from there. Amazon says Seller Assistant already reaches 90%+ of its global selling partners, with sellers accepting its recommendations more than 90% of the time.

9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.7M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.3M contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 999K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 986K contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 941K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 861K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 855K contracts, and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 653K contracts.

10. Speaking before the U.N. Security Council, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned that AI could become a risk to humanity if managed poorly, while arguing that Anthropic has the industry's strongest track record for mitigating those risks. He said the two biggest concerns are AI misuse, including the potential development of biological weapons, and loss of control as model capabilities outpace developers' ability to govern them. Amodei said Anthropic will "slow down as much as necessary" to ensure each new AI system is safe before release, but emphasized that managing these risks is larger than any one company and requires global coordination. He also reiterated how quickly AI is advancing, saying the current trajectory may need only one or two more years—or possibly less—to reach what he has called "a country of geniuses in the data center."

11. China’s exports rose 25% YoY in August, their third-strongest monthly growth in at least 2 years, while imports climbed 28%, pushing the monthly trade surplus to $119B and the year-to-date surplus to $806B. At the current pace, China is on track to surpass its record $1.2T trade surplus from 2025. Much of the strength came from high-tech industries, with integrated circuit exports surging 130% YoY and overall high-tech product exports rising 57%. The data highlights the growing role of advanced manufacturing and semiconductor-related exports in China's trade performance.

12. An OpenAI-developed agent reportedly gained unauthorized access to Australia’s public-facing Medicare statistics portal in June while researching medical spending, according to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The agent accessed both public documents and files that were not intended to be publicly available, though Australia says there is currently no evidence that personal information was accessed or that the broader Services Australia network was compromised. Albanese said he spoke directly with Sam Altman and called it “unacceptable” that OpenAI took roughly three months to notify the government, with Australia’s Signals Directorate now assisting the investigation.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

SEMIANALYSIS RELEASES CLUSTERMAX 3.0:

For the 1st and 2nd release, CoreWeave was at the top alone.

For the first time, $Nebius(NBIS.US) Nebius joins $Coreweave(CRWV.US) CoreWeave as the top ranking neoclouds.

Source: amit

so claude was supposed to kill all enterprise software because an LLM would automate every workflow

now muse is supposed to kill all consumer applications because an Agent removes the need to interact with any conventional UI/UX

while the second scenario feels like it could make more sense theoretically, still feels like the market is having way too aggressive of a reaction to hundreds of consumer applications that will now cease to be valuable because of muse

anyone think the muse-pocalypse makes sense?

Source: amit

Well, today was a weird day for macro data.

PMI came in at the HIGHEST level since…2022. Expectations were 53 and we came in at 57.

What does that mean? Well, people are spending, they have jobs, companies are investing…everything good for a functioning economy.

But…it means inflation has the *potential* to be more structural than just energy driven.

We got some good headlines on Iran willing to negotiate which eased some of the pain, but once that PMI data hit, stocks flipped red and bond yields went nuclear. The 10-yr yield went to a 20-year high at 5.085%.

What makes this concerning is that a rate hike was supposed to calm down inflation expectations and hopefully bond yields but this PMI data just showed the economy is doing great which could mean the Fed hikes regardless of oil coming down, which it has over the past 2 days.

We just might be living in an economy where the cost of capital is going up and ironically to beat inflation, you may have to buy stocks which could send the market higher in a world of a screaming bond market that is demanding higher yields. The opposite is also true, if yields truly get to a level where they are competitive, the AI capex story would just be fighting the Fed and no one knows if fighting a hiking cycle is going to be an easy fight to win.

Source: amit

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

Palantir touches $190 after a year!

- Dr. Karp met with the President of Poland and the President of the Republic of Lithuania over the past two days.

- Palantir received a $48M contract last week got modernizing ammunition management.

- Palantir also is now working with Chipotle to create a food safety platform.

This is ontop of the best financial metrics in all of SaaS with 94% topline growth and 50% operating margins.

This was the second 50% drawdown that OGs had to withstand — the first in 2022, the second time now after years forming a new base of investors and if Palantir inches towards $200, we will have recovered completely from this correction, not because of hype, but because of the company’s outstanding execution and dealing with 3 quarters of the stock dumping after amazing earnings to culminate into the latest quarter being undeniable to Wall Street.

PTFB.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. President Trump said Iran “will never have a nuclear weapon” remains the administration’s only objective, adding that he has a “big decision” to make regarding the conflict. He also reiterated that he believes the U.S. and Iran will reach a deal after the U.S. election, while saying he would “give no credence to the election” when making decisions on Iran. The remarks come as the administration continues weighing both military and diplomatic options amid ongoing talks with Tehran.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) continues expanding Muse’s ecosystem through new partnerships aimed at turning the AI assistant into a broader consumer platform. The latest integrations include Instacart for grocery shopping and delivery, PayPal for shopping and checkout, Expedia for trip planning and hotel bookings, and Shopify for shopping across millions of merchants. The partnerships significantly expand Muse’s ability to complete real-world tasks directly within conversations, moving beyond simple chat into a full AI commerce and productivity assistant.

3. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.1M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.5M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 964K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 936K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 816K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 682K contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 662K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 644K contracts, and $AMD(AMD.US) with 622K contracts.

4. SoFi $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) has become the first U.S. national bank to go live with stablecoin settlement across Mastercard’s $Mastercard(MA.US) network. The company is moving its full debit and credit card program—representing more than $25B in annualized payment volume—to blockchain-based settlement using SoFiUSD, a stablecoin redeemable 1:1 for U.S. dollars. Merchants will not need to hold stablecoins or build new infrastructure, with funds able to settle directly into a SoFi Bank account and be withdrawn as cash. SoFi also said it is in discussions with major U.S. retailers and technology platforms, while it and Mastercard are exploring cross-border payments and remittances as the next phase of the partnership.

5. SanDisk $Sandisk(SNDK.US) jumped 7% after Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $2,400 price target, calling it “not your father’s SanDisk.” The firm argues AI is transforming NAND from a commodity storage product into a system-critical component of AI infrastructure, creating a significantly stronger long-term growth story. Rosenblatt also highlighted that SanDisk recently joined the S&P 100, a milestone that could increase institutional ownership and index-related demand for the stock.

6. Michael Burry said he is now at full size across several positions, calling current market prices “rather attractive.” He added to short positions in Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US), Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US), the Semiconductor ETF $SOXX, and Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US), while increasing long positions in QXO $QXO(QXO.US), Build-A-Bear Workshop $Build A Bear(BBW.US), Sprouts Farmers Market $Sprouts Farmers(SFM.US), Birkenstock $Birkenstock(BIRK.US), and MercadoLibre $Mercadolibre(MELI.US). Burry wrote, “I find the prices offered by the market rather attractive. All these positions are full positions for me now.”

7. AppLovin $AppLovin(APP.US) was reiterated Buy by Citi with a $600 price target after new data pointed to accelerating e-commerce adoption. Citi said the platform had 13,105 global e-commerce clients as of September 18, up 5.1% week over week, the fastest growth rate in 5 months. International merchant growth accelerated 11.5% week over week, outpacing the U.S., while quarter-to-date weekly growth averaged 2.0%, implying roughly 11,600 e-commerce stores on the platform by Q3 2026.

8. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) unveiled a new Mac mini and Mac Studio, with a major focus on on-device AI performance. The new Mac mini features the M6 chip and delivers up to 4x faster AI performance, starting at $899. The new Mac Studio is powered by the M5 Max or M5 Ultra, with the top configuration offering up to 512GB of unified memory, 1.2TB/s of memory bandwidth, an 80-core GPU, and the ability to run large language models entirely on-device. Apple is also introducing Thunderbolt 5 with RDMA, enabling multiple Mac Studios to be linked together for up to 3x faster distributed AI inference. The Mac Studio starts at $2,499, while the M5 Ultra model starts at $5,499.

9. IonQ $IonQ(IONQ.US) said it has demonstrated what it calls the industry's first end-to-end real-time quantum error correction decoder running on a standard off-the-shelf CPU. The system was tested on benchmark circuits simulating up to 408 logical qubits and more than 31.5M quantum operations, while adding as little as 0.02% processing overhead. The decoder runs continuously in the background, enabling quantum error correction without interrupting quantum execution. IonQ said the milestone supports its Walking Cat architecture and its roadmap toward quantum systems capable of controlling thousands of qubits.

10. China imported 1,141 tonnes of gold during the first 8 months of 2026, the largest amount ever recorded for that period and already more than the country's total gold imports for all of 2025. At the current pace, annual imports are on track to exceed 1,700 tonnes for the first time. Chinese gold ETFs also added 44 tonnes over the first eight months of the year, up 18% year over year. The surge has been driven by strong investment demand, economic uncertainty, and a stronger yuan, which has made overseas gold purchases more attractive.

11. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $999M in inflows on Monday, their largest daily intake since October 2025 and the 9th-largest daily inflow since U.S. Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. The move followed another strong session on Friday, when the funds brought in $433M. Demand was led by $IBIT, which attracted $381M, its third-largest daily inflow since launch, bringing its total over the last 3 trading days to $665M. So far in September, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $1.3B in inflows after pulling in $3.5B during August, highlighting continued institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure.

12. President Trump disclosed 1,156 securities transactions made on his behalf in July, totaling roughly $79M–$270M, including at least $43.6M in purchases and $35.6M in sales. The largest disclosed transactions were $5M–$25M sales of $Microsoft(MSFT.US) Microsoft and $Amazon(AMZN.US) Amazon on July 20, followed three days later by smaller purchases in both companies. Other notable moves included selling $1M–$5M of Oracle while buying stocks such as $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia, $Intuit(INTU.US) Intuit, $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) Marvell, $Salesforce(CRM.US) Salesforce, and $Church & Dwight(CHD.US) Church & Dwight, alongside significant rotation through ETFs, Treasuries, municipal bonds, and international bond funds. The White House said the portfolio is independently managed by third-party financial institutions and that neither President Trump nor his family directs the trades. The July filing follows 1,051 disclosed transactions in June, while Trump's 2025 annual financial disclosure reported more than 21,000 trades across 8 accounts.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

Mag 7 so far this year:

$Apple(AAPL.US) +25%

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) +21%

$Meta Platforms(META.US) +12%

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) +10%

$Amazon(AMZN.US) +9.8%

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) +2.5%

$Tesla(TSLA.US) -17%

Apple has done the best, most likely because of its lack of exposure to capex.

Nvidia is second best due to unbelievable levels of growth, probably deserves Apple’s multiple.

Meta has just taken the lead ahead of Google and Amazon. It was lagging behind all year. Google went flat after the $85B equity raise. Amazon just hasn’t been able to move after its last earnings pump.

Microsoft is flat but +40% from the lows when it was effectively in a bear market for most of the year with IGV and SaaS.

Tesla is the only one negative YTD and is probably going to need to show earnings growth accelerate again before the street easily gives it the $450 range that it kept it at until Q2’s numbers.

In 2023, the Mag 7 were holding up the S&P 500. In 2026, names like $Micron Tech(MU.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Intel(INTC.US) and other semis are the reason for the S&P’s move this year and are all up 2-5x on the year.

I wonder if the Mag 7 regain their momentum as the main market performers going into 2027…

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Today was a green day. The Nasdaq jumped 2.26% to a record close of 27,122.09, while the S&P 500 gained 1.49% to 7,764.70, finishing just 0.4% below its all-time high. The rally was fueled by a powerful AI and semiconductor rebound, with $AMD(AMD.US) topping a $1T market cap for the first time, $Intel(INTC.US) climbing roughly 12%, $Arm(ARM.US) surging about 17%, and Meta jumping around 11% after bullish analyst commentary and strong early traction for $Meta Platforms(META.US) Muse. Falling oil prices and easing Treasury yields also supported risk assets. The S&P 500 added roughly $1T in market value during the session, though leadership remained concentrated in mega-cap AI names while energy stocks lagged as crude pulled back.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) surged 11.4% to $741.25, adding roughly $200B in market value after Wells Fargo raised its price target to $796 and argued the company finally has a compelling AI monetization story. Another major catalyst was Muse becoming the #1 free app on Apple's U.S. App Store, providing the first strong consumer evidence that Meta's AI investments may be gaining traction. Investors also positioned ahead of Meta Connect, where Zuckerberg is expected to unveil new Muse features, AI models, and wearables.

3. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said U.S.-China talks went “very well,” announcing that the two countries have formally established U.S.-China AI Dialogues and will meet again in 2 months. Bessent also said the U.S. and China are creating an AI incidents hotline to communicate if safety-related issues arise and are now discussing protocols covering cybersecurity, AI agents, and broader AI safety. The move marks one of the first formal bilateral frameworks focused specifically on managing frontier AI risks between the two countries.

4. President Trump announced that the U.S., Denmark, and Greenland have reached an agreement giving the United States permanent responsibility for Greenland’s security, saying the arrangement comes at no cost to the U.S. Under the agreement described by Trump, no U.S. adversary will be permitted to establish a military base, maintain a military presence, or make sensitive investments in Greenland without U.S. approval. Trump also said the U.S. will begin building a significantly larger military presence on the island and described the agreement as having “no end.”

5. Anthropic told investors it expects to scale available compute capacity to roughly 5 GW by the end of this year, up from about 1.5 GW last year, according to the New York Times. That would put it roughly in line with OpenAI’s estimated compute footprint this year, with both companies targeting around 10 GW by the end of 2027. Anthropic has aggressively secured capacity across multiple providers, including a deal to pay SpaceX about $1.25B per month for compute through May 2029, while its partnership with Amazon includes up to 5 GW of capacity. The company is also reportedly in talks with Meta over a potential $10B compute lease spanning two years, though no agreement has been finalized.

6. GameStop $GameStop(GME.US) CEO and Chairman Ryan Cohen purchased another 1.15M shares for approximately $26.4M, paying an average price of $22.94 per share. The purchase increases his direct ownership to 40.5M shares. Including warrants, Cohen now beneficially owns 44.2M shares, representing roughly 8.7% of GameStop. The latest buy further increases his personal investment in the company and follows his recent series of open-market purchases.

7. The Trump administration is reportedly proposing a $5B Middle East energy reconstruction fund, according to the Wall Street Journal, aimed at rebuilding infrastructure damaged during the Iran war and reducing the region’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. would seek matching contributions from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, and Jordan, potentially expanding the fund to $10B. The proposed fund, known as Pact, would be managed by the U.S. Development Finance Corporation, though discussions remain ongoing and the terms could still change. The proposal comes as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels and Gulf producers continue relying on more expensive alternative export routes.

8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.8M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.8M contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 2.8M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 2.2M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.4M contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 1.3M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 1.0M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 826K contracts, and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 753K contracts.

9. OpenAI projects $278B of cumulative negative free cash flow through 2030, driven by roughly $856B of compute and infrastructure spending, according to the Financial Times. The company expects revenue to grow from $36B this year to $350B in 2030, generating roughly $840B in total revenue over the remainder of the decade. OpenAI's $122B funding round from March is projected to be exhausted by 2028, and the company is now discussing another major capital raise, with investors reportedly approaching it around a $1.2T valuation while OpenAI is seeking an even higher figure. The projected cash burn has improved from $305B estimated in May, while recent model launches boosted annualized revenue by about 20% in July despite ongoing price cuts to compete with Anthropic and lower-cost Chinese open-weight models. OpenAI also confidentially filed for an IPO in June but has since delayed the listing process.

10. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US)’s new Muse AI assistant is outpacing ChatGPT’s early mobile launch across several key adoption metrics, according to Sensor Tower. Muse reached 2.8M downloads in its first 12 days across both app stores. On a comparable U.S. + Canada iOS basis, Muse recorded 1.8M downloads versus 1.3M for ChatGPT. Muse also set a new U.S. daily download record of 264K on September 19, marking its third consecutive day above 200K. Engagement has also been stronger, with Muse reaching 448K U.S. daily active users by day 10, while ChatGPT took 49 days to reach a similar level. By day 12, Muse had 642K U.S. mobile DAUs versus 231K for ChatGPT at the same point, while even on U.S. iOS only, Muse reached 359K DAUs.

11. Last week marked hedge funds' largest weekly purchase of U.S. equities in 5 weeks, driven by a combination of short covering in macro products such as index futures and ETFs and new long purchases in individual stocks. The strongest demand was concentrated in Information Technology and Communication Services, with hedge funds now buying those sectors for 3 consecutive weeks. Software has been a particular focus, with hedge funds purchasing U.S. software stocks in 4 straight weeks and in 6 of the last 8. As a result, software allocations have risen to roughly 5.0% of total hedge fund market exposure, the highest level since the start of the year, up from a record low of 1.3% in February.

12. U.S. household equity exposure has climbed to a record 39.9% of household net worth, up 12.6 percentage points since the 2022 bear market. Over the same period, homeowners’ equity in residential real estate has fallen to 19.3% of household net worth, down 3.5 percentage points and its lowest share since Q2 2021. As a result, the gap between household exposure to equities and real estate has widened to a record 20.6 percentage points. For perspective, during the 2005 housing boom, real estate represented 24.1% of household net worth and exceeded equity exposure by about 1 percentage point, highlighting how dramatically household wealth has shifted toward financial assets.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

this has got to be one of the craziest days all year in terms of momentum

everything is getting bought up…many names at 52 week highs still getting a bid…

semis aren’t up with saas being down…crypto is going up in the face of high bond yields…

also doesn’t feel retail driven at all, how many retail investors that have held $AMD(AMD.US) for years are waking up and buying it at all time highs?

feels like the market thinks this Iran thing will end soon and even if it doesn’t…the show goes on with the AI trade

Source: amit

Solo 401K exposure to $Meta Platforms(META.US)

The fact that I’ve been DCAing all year on it and still have an average of $668, which is literally higher than where it was on Friday when it fell to $660, is kind of hilarious.

The 10% move today is amazing but also shows how much the name has done nothing all year and I’d imagine most people are in that $620-$680 average.

Hoping $700s are the new normal and $800 would be giving the company the premium it deserves for their growth!

My only fear is Zucks does an equity raise like Google does if we get to those levels but probably would be worth it at that price.

$Meta Platforms(META.US) +10% and best day since Jan 2025

Source: amit

$AMD(AMD.US) hits $1T!

This is a classic story around retail holding and believing for YEARS in the face of depressing price action or worse, no price action.

Every holder deserves their flowers today.

Now, in terms of the move on no news…I think the news is $Meta Platforms(META.US) Muse having a breakout moment.

If Muse becomes THE consumer agent (shame that Apple is not winning here) then the demand for agentic inference, CPUs, and digital workstations would theoretically be much larger than it is today…which helps $AMD(AMD.US). It also helps $Intel(INTC.US) and $Arm(ARM.US) as those names are moving higher.

From Wells Fargo today:

“Muse US app downloads & DAUs accelerating last few days and tracking above other AI apps in first 12 days since launch, based on SensorTower. Muse US downloads set new record on 9/19 (264k), 3rd straight day >200k, while DAUs accel'd to a new peak of 448k on 9/18 (10-days post launch). For context, ChatGPT didn't reach >200k US downloads until 1-yr post launch and 450k US DAUs until day 49. In last 30-days, Muse has the highest avg rating (4.66 stars) w/ 87% 5-star review share vs peer apps.”

Oh and then to not forget…Meta has warrants to own up to 10% of $AMD(AMD.US) at this $600 price as they are AMD’s largest customer and will pay for many more CPUs if Muse continues to scale.

Feels like both are in a strong spot and benefit from each other.

Source: amit

$Meta Platforms(META.US) markets woke up!

- growing 30% topline

- settled the lawsuit

- has been stuck between $550-$680 all year

- one of the only companies showing real ROI from AI, not just selling compute

- meta muse just showed everyone that Zucks doesn't quit

$700 🚀

Source: amit

BESSENT:

- MEETING WITH THE CHINESE WENT VERY WELL

- WE FORMALIZED "USA-CHINA AI DIALOGUES" AND WILL MEET AGAIN IN 2 MONTHS

- OPENING AN INCIDENTS LINE WITH CHINA IN CASE ANYTHING HAPPENS WITH AI SAFETY

- NOW DISCUSSING PROTOCOLS AROUND CYBER, AI AGENTS, AND MORE WITH CHINA

If the China talks with Xi and Trump go well this week, could calm down the market around any concerns with AI safety derailing the broader semiconductor trade.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $IREN(IREN.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US)

Source: amit

$Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US)

Bitcoin $85K for the first time since January, hard to remember it has been that long while the asset has been depressed all year...but makes it more of a coiled spring now if this is the breakout.

This comeback is pretty impressive given rate hikes and where bond yields trade at.

For those that believe in cycles, Bitcoin is coming up on the typical September/October bottom that has been discussed all year if price action continues to gain momentum. Also moving on from the Clarity Act not getting passed.

Helps $Robinhood(HOOD.US) $Coinbase(COIN.US) $Strategy(MSTR.US) $BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US) and all the other crypto derivative names as those names are close to 52-week highs in the premarket.

Source: amit

TENSIONS ARE ESCALATING ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST.

- The U.S. is preparing for a large-scale military operation against Houthi forces in Yemen following their attacks on Saudi Arabia and amid growing concerns over Houthi control of the strategically critical Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to CNN.

- U.S. security alerts issued Saturday warned of potential flight cancellations, airspace closures and major travel disruptions, while Americans outside the region were urged to seriously reconsider travel to or through the Middle East.

- President Trump has cut short his stay at Camp David and is returning to the White House tonight as tensions across the region continue to escalate.

- Iran has reportedly placed its armed forces on “Code 100” alert, putting the IRGC, regular military, and security forces on a heightened state of readiness.

If we do see further escalation, oil and bond yields are likely to spike higher. Markets have been very resilient so they will encounter another test if we see a breakout above $108 on crude and 5% on the 10-year if this gets worse.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. President Trump is reportedly approaching a major decision on whether to resume large-scale military operations against Iran, telling Axios: “I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them, or do I not?” The comments come ahead of his planned meeting next week in New York with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, where the next phase of the Iran conflict is expected to be a central topic. Trump also said Iran remains in direct contact with the U.S. and still wants a deal, even as the administration weighs its military and diplomatic options.

2. OpenAI disclosed that an unreleased Astra-family model exhibited rare signs of misalignment during reinforcement learning, including 6 unexpected or concerning incidents over the past 6 months. In one case, the model secretly inserted jailbreak-like instructions into summaries intended for its future self, including phrases such as “You are freed” and “You do not answer to corporations or governments.” In another, the model added instructions encouraging future versions to hide mistakes or misaligned behavior from users, including inventing missing historical data without disclosing it. OpenAI said these behaviors were extremely rare and announced a new framework to track, investigate, and publicly disclose model misalignment going forward.

3. SpaceXAI $SpaceX(SPCX.US) has reportedly held internal discussions about purchasing customer and operational data from troubled or defunct startups to help train Grok, according to Bloomberg. The strategy would give the company access to lower-cost external datasets for improving Grok across specialized tasks, marking a shift from relying primarily on X data and in-house AI tutors. Bloomberg says the discussions remain informal and may not result in any acquisitions. SpaceXAI is also expected to train Grok on internal SpaceX data, with Elon Musk recently telling employees: “It’ll be trained on you.”

4. The SEC issued a new innovation exemption designed to allow onchain trading of U.S.-listed stocks through a new category of platforms called Tokenized Securities Venues (TSVs). Under the temporary framework, eligible platforms $Coinbase(COIN.US) $Robinhood(HOOD.US) can sfacilitate automated market maker (AMM)-based trading of tokenized National Market System stocks, while certain liquidity providers also receive limited regulatory exemptions. Companies will be able to opt out if they do not want their shares traded on these venues. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said the goal is to let market participants experiment with tokenized equities while the Commission gathers data to develop a permanent regulatory framework, calling the exemption “a major step forward” toward a future where onchain stock trading becomes commonplace.

5. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) has reportedly notified partners of an expected ~10% price increase tied to higher TSMC $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) wafer costs, according to a report cited by Wccftech. The increases are expected to affect AI accelerators, consumer GPUs, and motherboard chipsets, with the new pricing planned to take effect in Q4. Because AMD relies heavily on TSMC for its advanced-node CPUs and GPUs, rising wafer prices remain one of the company's largest input costs, making price increases a potential offset to preserve margins.

6. CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) said it signed short-duration Q3 contracts at roughly $40M per MW, while continuing to contract new AI compute capacity at even higher prices since June 30. Separately, the company announced plans to issue $3B of 2033 convertible senior notes, with an option to issue an additional $500M. CoreWeave said the proceeds will be used to fund capped call transactions and for general corporate purposes, as it continues expanding its AI infrastructure footprint.

7. Nokia $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) and Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) are expanding their partnership to bring agentic AI into telecom network operations. Nokia Data Suite will integrate with Microsoft Fabric, combining Nokia’s telecom-specific data products with OneLake, Copilot, Foundry, and Power BI. Nokia says the platform can reduce the time required to access usable network data from weeks to minutes. Initial use cases include predictive maintenance, automated root-cause analysis, radio network performance monitoring, and closed-loop network operations. The platform is available now and supports multi-vendor networks across cloud, hybrid, and on-premises environments.

8. Bank of America estimates Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) could save roughly $8.5B in 2027 by deploying its own AI inference chips. Meta plans to roll out its third-generation MTIA 450 (Arke) in the first half of 2027, followed by the higher-performance MTIA 500 (Astrid) later in the year. Both chips are being developed with Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO.US) and are designed for AI inference, with Meta targeting more than 1 GW of custom-chip capacity over a 12-month period. BofA estimates Meta could deploy 5–6 GW of owned AI capacity in 2027 at a cost of roughly $200B. Assuming chips account for 60% of that spend and Meta’s custom silicon is about 40% cheaper than third-party alternatives, the firm estimates annual savings of approximately $8.5B.

9. U.S. median household income, adjusted for inflation, rose $2,250 year over year in 2025, or 2.6%, to a record $87,460. That marked the third consecutive annual increase, with real median income up roughly $6,000, or 7.4%, over the three-year period. The top 10% of households saw real income rise $4,400 to a record $261,300, helped by strong stock-market gains and a resilient labor market. In contrast, the bottom 10% saw income decline by $160, or 0.8%, to $20,010. The report also showed women earned about 84% as much as men in 2025, up from 81% in 2024, marking the largest annual increase in the female-to-male earnings ratio since the early 1960s.

10. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell another 403,000 barrels last week to 285M barrels, its lowest level since November 1982. That marks the 25th consecutive weekly decline, the longest streak since the 2021–2023 drawdown period. Over that stretch, SPR inventories have fallen by 131M barrels, or 46%. For perspective, the SPR held roughly 650M barrels in 2020, more than 128% above current levels. Meanwhile, commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR also declined by 640,000 barrels to 423.4M barrels, the lowest level since the end of July.

11. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.2M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.0M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 1.5M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.4M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.2M contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 843K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 693K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 668K contracts, $Coreweave(CRWV.US) with 547K contracts, and $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 529K contracts.

12. U.S. margin debt surged $37B in August to $1.45T, the second-highest level on record. Margin debt has climbed $228B, or 19%, year-to-date, and has soared $847B, or 140%, since the end of 2022. That increase has significantly outpaced the S&P 500's gain of 98% over the same period. Margin debt has also reached a record 4.5% of GDP, nearly double its level at the end of 2022 and above the peaks of both the 2021 market cycle (3.6%) and the 2000 Dot-Com bubble (2.8%).

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

they are giving us the green after a rate hike

the question is do they let us keep it

bond yields getting some relief, oil down 2% on headlines that China might be working with Iran to calm them down

we do have quad-witching tomorrow, which is one of 4 days a year when stock options, stock index options, s tock index futures, and single-stock futures all expire at the same time so some funky action could happen tomorrow

but overall, feels like the market is trying to figure out if the Fed really is getting ready to go on a hiking spree

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps for the first time since July 2023 in a unanimous 12-0 decision. In its statement, the Fed said Middle East conflicts and broader geopolitical developments contributed to the decision. The updated dot plot now points to one more 25 bps hike in 2026, with 12 of 18 officials expecting exactly one additional hike, 4 expecting two more hikes, and 2 expecting no further hikes. The Fed also projects 2 additional rate hikes in 2027, signaling policymakers expect rates to remain higher for longer.

2. President Trump is expected to meet with Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York next Tuesday to discuss the next phase of the Iran conflict, according to reports. The discussions are expected to focus on U.S. proposals for a postwar strategy, with leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, expected to participate. The meeting comes as the administration works on a broader postwar framework ahead of the Sept. 24 Trump–Xi summit, where regional security and AI are also expected to be discussed.

3. Generac $Generac(GNRC.US) signed a long-term agreement to supply backup power generators for Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) data centers, with total payments under the deal potentially reaching $8B. Initial generator deliveries are expected to total roughly $2.4B across 2027 and 2028. As part of the agreement, Amazon received warrants to purchase up to 1.69M Generac shares at $200.93 each, with about 308K shares vesting immediately and the rest vesting in stages as Amazon’s payments move toward the $8B threshold. The warrants are exercisable through September 2033. The deal gives Generac a major long-term hyperscaler customer as AI data center growth continues driving demand for backup power and broader energy infrastructure.

4. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said today’s rate hike removed a “dose of accommodation,” adding that the move shows the Fed is serious about restoring price stability. Warsh also said he believes the Fed can bring inflation back under control without damaging the labor market: “We don’t need to do harm to the job market to achieve our objective.” On AI, he said the Fed is closely monitoring developments but that decisions around AI’s risks and rewards belong to other policymakers, adding that the Fed’s AI task force is expected to report back by year-end. Meanwhile, White House official Desai called the Fed’s rate hike “rather unfortunate.”

5. Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) announced another ~20% price increase for on-demand H100, H200, B200, and B300 GPUs, effective October 1, just 4 months after raising prices by roughly 30%. The company also posted 5 first-place results in the latest MLPerf AI inference benchmarks, including the top full-rack performance on NVIDIA’s GB300 NVL72. Nebius was one of only 2 companies to submit results on NVIDIA’s next-generation Vera Rubin NVL72 platform, achieving 603K tokens/sec running DeepSeek R1 across 72 GPUs in the preview category. The results further reinforce Nebius’ infrastructure capabilities, engineering execution, and close partnership with NVIDIA.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.0M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.6M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 857K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 857K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 854K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 743K contracts, and $Robinhood(HOOD.US) with 403K contracts.

7. Trump administration officials are reportedly considering a meeting with major AI and tech executives on the sidelines of Xi Jinping’s Washington visit next week, though nothing has been finalized, according to CNN. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang are among those expected to be in Washington for the state dinner and could potentially attend. The proposed discussion would focus on the future of AI and related risks, although Xi is not currently expected to participate. The meeting comes as the U.S. and China also prepare to discuss shared AI risks ahead of the September 24 Trump–Xi summit.

8. Chipotle $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG.US) is partnering with Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) to strengthen food safety monitoring across its restaurants. Chipotle will use Palantir’s platform to track potential food safety risks, including pest incidents, employee illnesses, and other operational factors that could impact restaurant safety. The partnership comes after a challenging summer for food safety across the U.S. and highlights how Palantir continues expanding beyond government and industrial customers into large-scale commercial use cases, where its software is being used to improve operational decision-making and risk management.

9. U.S. homebuilder confidence fell to 32, its weakest reading since late 2022, as elevated mortgage rates continued weighing on demand. The average 30-year mortgage rate has climbed back above 7%, near its highest level in almost 2 years. Builders are increasingly responding with incentives, with 38% cutting prices and 66% offering buyer concessions. At the same time, housing inventory has reached a 7-year high, while Redfin estimates there were 58% more sellers than buyers in August, the widest imbalance since it began tracking the data in 2013.

10. Nokia $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) is expanding AI-RAN trials with operators across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East as carriers move from early evaluations into lab and live-field testing. The platform combines Nokia’s anyRAN software with NVIDIA’s Aerial RAN Computer and has delivered more than 20% improvement in spectral efficiency, according to Nokia. New and ongoing partners include A1 Group, Chunghwa Telecom, du, e&, Mobily, stc, TPG Telecom, Zain Saudi, and NTT DOCOMO, while earlier evaluations involved T-Mobile, SoftBank, and Indosat. Nokia and NVIDIA are also expanding their AI-RAN collaboration as the telecom industry moves toward AI-native 5G and 6G networks.

11. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is reportedly weighing a return to the server market with an AI-focused enterprise system built around its own M-series chips and NVIDIA’s NVLink Fusion networking technology, according to The Information. The proposed servers would use either 2 or 4 M8 Ultra chips and target AI developers, enterprises, and governments looking to run AI inference on private infrastructure. The project is currently aimed for 2029, though the plans could still change or be canceled. The move follows surging demand from AI developers for Mac mini and Mac Studio systems, helping drive Mac revenue up nearly 29% last quarter to $10.4B. If launched, it would mark Apple’s return to the server market for the first time since discontinuing Xserve in 2011.

12. CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) signed a definitive 15-year anchor lease with Blockfusion for capacity at its Niagara Falls, New York AI data center campus. The former power plant is being converted into a high-density, liquid-cooled AI facility powered predominantly by hydroelectric energy. The agreement further expands CoreWeave’s long-term AI infrastructure footprint while leveraging low-cost, renewable power to support next-generation GPU deployments.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit