amit

$SoFi Tech(SOFI.US)

SOFI Q2 2026 EARNINGS:

- Adjusted Net Revenue $1.2B +40% YoY

- Net Income $157M

- Adjusted EBITDA $358M +44% YoY

- Total Loan Originations $14.8B record

- Members 15.8M +35% YoY

- Products 24.4M +42% YoY

CEO Anthony Noto:

“2026 is shaping up to be a defining year, and our second quarter results mark a clear inflection point for SoFi. Despite continued market uncertainty, our business model continues to prove its durability. For the first time, we added twice as many products as members, a major milestone that underscores the trust members place in SoFi.”

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. SK Hynix $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $54.6B vs $57.7B expected, up 257% YoY and 51% QoQ, while operating profit came in at $41.6B vs $44.2B expected, up 557% YoY. Operating margin hit a record 76%, with gross margin at 83% and EBITDA of $44.4B, or an 81% margin. Pricing remained extremely strong, with DRAM ASP up ~30% QoQ and NAND ASP up mid-50% QoQ, while Q3 guidance calls for DRAM bit growth of about 10% QoQ and NAND bit growth in the low-single digits. SK Hynix also said HBM4 shipments began in Q2 with a full ramp planned in 2H, while HBM4E samples were supplied to a major customer in 1H. Net profit surged to $64.6B, boosted by $43.5B of investment-asset gains, meaning net income exceeded revenue due to $42.8B of non-operating profit.

2. The Trump administration is proposing a change that would allow the FAA to waive certain environmental review requirements for commercial launch sites, rocket launches, and spacecraft reentries, according to WSJ. The move could speed up approvals as annual launches and reentries are expected to rise from 214 this fiscal year to more than 500 over the next decade. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US), Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US), Blue Origin, and Stoke Space could benefit, though the proposal still has to go through public comment.

3. U.S. Central Command said IRGC forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran today in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East. CENTCOM said all Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted and that U.S. forces remain on high alert and ready to respond. Oil was up 5% after hours on the news even though it went down 4% today on earlier reports that Egypt, Qatar, and Pakistan were working to bring back the original MOU between the US and Iran. No updates on that original MOU coming back are in place yet, but the attacks after hours showcased further escalation.

4. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 820K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 750K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 737K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 573K contracts, $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) with 558K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 495K contracts, and $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 461K contracts.

5. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang reportedly met with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as Nvidia faces growing scrutiny over China chip exports, per Axios. The meeting comes while the Commerce Department investigates potential violations tied to Nvidia’s Blackwell shipments to China, though the details of their discussion were not disclosed. Huang is also meeting with lawmakers from both parties as Washington prepares a broader AI framework covering advanced models, open-source AI, and China, expected by August 1.

6. OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly lobbying the Trump administration ahead of an August 1 deadline for deciding which frontier AI models should face government evaluation, per The Information. The companies want rival models from players like Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) and SpaceXAI included as well. Qualifying models could be subject to review at least 30 days before release if they raise cybersecurity or national-security concerns. OpenAI and Anthropic are also warning about Chinese open-source models allegedly built in part using their outputs, citing privacy, IP theft, and cybersecurity risks.

7. Moonshot AI is reportedly looking for more Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Blackwell chips as it discusses Kimi K4, a model expected to be significantly larger than its 2.8T-parameter Kimi K3, per The Information. K3 was reportedly trained partly in China using Blackwell chips accessed through multiple Chinese cloud providers, with Moonshot linking separate 8-chip servers across providers and data centers because no single provider had enough capacity. Inference is now another constraint, with Moonshot pausing new subscriptions within 48 hours of launch as demand overwhelmed capacity. The company reportedly uses Nvidia H20 chips for inference and recommends at least 64 chips to host K3. The report also says Alibaba trained its 2.4T-parameter Qwen3.8-Max using Nvidia chips, including Blackwell.

8. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said a compute oversupply could emerge within 2 years if AI models become efficient enough to handle most tasks while human attention becomes the real bottleneck. He also said oversupply risk could rise if the industry hits a scaling wall and costs stop falling, making additional compute less economically attractive.

9. Bloom Energy $Bloom Energy(BE.US) crushed Q2’26 earnings, with revenue rising 166% YoY to $1.07B vs $827.6M expected and adjusted EPS jumping 680% YoY to $0.78 vs $0.41 expected. Product revenue surged 215.4% YoY to $935.4M, while adjusted gross margin expanded 604 bps to 34.3%. Bloom also raised FY26 guidance, now expecting revenue of $3.9B–$4.2B vs $3.73B expected and adjusted EPS of $2.55–$2.85 vs $2.16 expected. Management said all major U.S. hyperscalers, plus over a dozen neoclouds, AI labs, and data center operators, have approved Bloom’s power solutions for AI factories, calling Bloom a new standard for AI onsite power.

10. ADP data shows U.S. private hiring has slowed for the fifth straight week, averaging just 15,000 jobs per week through July 11, less than half the 35,750 weekly pace seen in early May. At the same time, Visa $Visa(V.US) is reportedly cutting 7% of its workforce, or about 2,600 jobs, adding to signs that labor-market momentum is cooling.

11. Retail investors are leaning heavily into Big Tech upside, with call options on U.S. Big Tech stocks now making up roughly 55% of all new retail options positions on a 20-day average basis, near the highest level on record. This tracks newly opened call positions, not total volume, making it a clearer read on directional retail bets. The figure is up 10 percentage points since the late-March market bottom, compared with a 57% peak during the 2020 pandemic rebound and a 35% low during the 2022 bear market.

12. Every component in the semiconductor index $SOX is now trading below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April 2025, a sharp reversal from early June when all 30 members were above that level. The SOX is down 18.9% so far in July, putting it on pace for its worst monthly decline since 2008, and now trades 11% below its 50-day moving average, the widest gap since March 30. Despite the pullback, semis remain up 63% YTD. Meanwhile, the semiconductor ETF $SMH has seen $1.3B of outflows month-to-date, tracking toward its second-largest monthly outflow on record.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$SK Hynix(SKHY.US) SK Hynix missing earnings was not what we needed today in an already high levered memory trade lol

to be fair, the misses were a few billion on revenue and operating profit and had nothing to do with demand as both metrics are still up 2.5x and 5.5x YoY

unfortunately taking down the other memory names after hours $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US)

oil hitting $83 afterhours as we head into FOMC...just ugly headlines back and forth now

july has exhausted everyone 😂

Source: amit

US CENTRAL COMMAND:

- IRGC forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East today

- All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted.

- US forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness

Well, whatever reports that we had earlier today about the MOU coming back and negotiations starting again might have to take a breather until we get some meaningful updates on around negotiations.

This is the first attack in 3 days after both sides stopped for the weekend.

Oil +5%

Source: amit

how much of this dump today is Citadel scaring everyone into thinking we get a hike tomorrow 😂

their logic is that the Fed needs to hike to establish credibility

i thought Warsh’s plan was reforming the fed with the creation of task forces to develop a better source of truth in order to legitimize credibility

not hiking rates when oil, which is the majority of the reason for inflation, can fall 20% instantly if Trump gets a peace deal done

i mean oil is literally down 15% from Friday just off rumors that a ceasefire could be back

would be quite funny if we pump tomorrow and Citadel bought a ton of stock today only to benefit from everyone chasing the rally on a pause

does anyone think we hike tomorrow?

Source: amit

REUTERS:

- Mediators say a proposal to revive the US-Iran MOU is close, but awaits Trump’s decision after speaking to Israel today

- Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar are involved in advancing a plan to clarify disagreements

- Iran and Oman have already approved the proposal which would allow negotiations to begin again

Trump went on Fox this morning and said he doesn’t want to start bombing plants/ bridges and also said Iran wants a deal.

Oil just fell below $80. The 10-yr is now at 4.5%.

The US was supposed to strike Friday but Trump shut down those attacks.

If there was ever a moment for Trump to really pivot and get back to a path to ceasefire/peace deal, it would be now. If this meeting ends up going well with Netanyahu today then maybe we get some clarity on the Iran situation and the market taking oil and the 10yr down is them pricing in that the worst may have happened, stocks will follow on actual confirmation. Reports of a Fed hiking soon might also be part of the reason Trump wants to resolve the situation. A Fed Hike and increased war intensity would be horrible for inflation.

Maybe this time Trump actually de-escalates, as much as it hurts to believe that this time could be different, all the ingredients are there for Trump to actually pivot and make sure inflation becomes more tame by negotiating an actual peace deal.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Semis $SMH fell about 2.5% today as the market reacted to a mix of China supply-chain headlines and growing AI financing concerns. A Chinese state-backed firm has reportedly started mass-producing domestic DUV lithography machines, raising fears that China could become less reliant on Western suppliers like ASML and pressure future equipment demand. At the same time, Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) reportedly backstopping OpenAI’s new data center buildout with $250B, along with another $5B investment into a new AI startup, is adding to concerns that parts of the AI trade are becoming too circular. China also just completed its second-largest IPO ever through a memory company, which is feeding worries that memory supply could expand just as pricing may be nearing a peak.

2. Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) CEO Alex Karp kicked off the company’s first Sovereignty Bootcamp, bringing together 150+ customers to discuss sovereign AI and enterprise ownership of AI-driven value. Karp said companies should not pay for AI tools only to have their business replicated by the provider, arguing that enterprises need to own what they produce. He called sovereign AI “the most important thing in AI,” framing it as the next major wave of the AI revolution. He also said: "You can’t be paying someone and then your reward is that they get to replicate your business. It’s absolutely crazy. We think there is an alternative way of doing this that actually creates more value for an enterprise."

3. Citadel Securities reportedly expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, per Bloomberg. The firm thinks markets may be underpricing a more hawkish Fed pivot and says a surprise hike would reinforce the central bank’s inflation-fighting credibility. Interest-rate swaps currently imply about a 40%chance of a move this week, with one full hike priced by September. Citadel says the recent jump in energy prices could be enough to push the Fed toward acting immediately.

4. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) announced the Open Secure AI Alliance, bringing industry leaders together to build open tools for securing software and AI agents. Jensen Huang said, “Attackers have frontier AI. Defenders need a frontier AI ecosystem.” Nvidia is arguing that open models and security tooling should be viewed as defensive infrastructure, not a liability. The company warned that broad restrictions on open frontier AI could weaken cyber defenses, increase reliance on a small group of closed providers, and concentrate too much power. Nvidia is calling for shared investment in open AI defense systems, including datasets, evaluation frameworks, attack simulators, and red-teaming tools.

5. BlackRock $BlackRock(BLK.US) raised $12.5B of debt to help finance Meta’s $Meta Platforms(META.US) nearly 1GW AI data center campus in El Paso, Texas. The 2048 notes priced at 287.5 bps over 10-year Treasuries and drew about $20B in demand, or roughly 1.6x the deal size. BlackRock-backed entities own 80% of the project, while Meta owns the remaining 20%. The financing is backed by Meta’s long-term lease commitments, allowing the data center debt to stay off Meta’s balance sheet.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 4.8M contracts, $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US) with 2.6M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.8M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 700K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 654K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 636K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 629K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 552K contracts.

7. Trump said the U.S. paused strikes on Iran to give negotiations another chance, per Axios. He warned that the U.S. could still return to “very strong military action” if talks break down, adding that diplomacy will not get much time. Discussions are reportedly centered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting broader nuclear talks, with Trump set to meet Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Tuesday.

8. Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) has filed with the FCC to launch 5,105 satellites by 2028 for a direct-to-device mobile network, per FT. The service would support voice, messaging, data, and emergency connectivity beyond traditional cell-tower coverage. Amazon plans to use spectrum tied to its $11.6B Globalstar deal, putting it more directly up against SpaceX’s Starlinkin satellite-enabled mobile services.

9. Foreign buying of U.S. equities has surged to a record $850B over the last 12 months, more than quadrupling since the start of 2025. That is also roughly 450% above the average since 2000. As a share of total equity market cap, foreign purchases are now around 1.3%, the highest since the post-Financial Crisis recovery in 2010 and above the 2021 meme-stock peak of roughly 1.1%.

10. AT&T $AT & T(T.US) is expanding its use of D-Wave Quantum $D-Wave Quantum(QBTS.US) across network operations through a new agreement focused on complex optimization problems. In early testing, AT&T said D-Wave’s annealing quantum technology reduced one network optimization workload from roughly one hour to under 15 seconds. The initial rollout will focus on integrating D-Wave into AT&T’s agentic AI tools for outage detection, technician routing, network planning, traffic management, and response. AT&T said those tools helped reduce customer downtime by 12M hours in 2025. The company is also evaluating D-Wave’s gate-model systems for quantum security and communications, with financial terms not disclosed.

11. BofA says the selloff in European semiconductors has created a compelling entry point. The firm notes the SOX has underperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 18% from its peak, similar to past corrections like the 2015 China slowdownand the 2018 China-U.S. trade/Fed hiking cycle, but still less severe than prior downturn drawdowns near 30%. BofA argues fundamentals remain strong, with the sector trading at about a 3x discount to average 2028 consensus multiples, while semiconductor capital equipment names are trading at a 6x–7x discount. BofA also says fears of a memory pricing crash look overdone, while expecting ASM Q2 EPS to beat consensus by 11% and keeping its 2027–2028 EPS estimates for ASML 6%–7% above consensus.

12. South Korea’s KOSPI fell as much as 8% early in trading, triggering a circuit breaker, which temporarily pauses trading to slow panic selling and give the market time to reset. The move is heavily tied to memory stocks, with Samsung and SK Hynix making up roughly half the index and both acting as major memory-cycle trades.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

This is turning into of the worst days for Semis all year.

Market seems to be reacting to a few things:

- A Chinese state-backed company has started mass-producing its own DUV lithography machines. The market is worried that the development could reduce China’s dependence on Western suppliers like ASML and weigh on future equipment demand

- NVDA backstopping OpenAI’s new datacenter buildout with $250B is making the market think that things are getting a bit too circular

- NVDA investing $5B into a new AI startup once again is creating fears of circular financing

- China just had their second largest IPO ever and it was a memory company which is now making the market think that oversupply of memory and a peak in prices is underway

Trump tried to calm down markets by saying that the US and Iran are talking, which got Oil down 7%, but isn’t really helping the chip stocks. Usually, a drop on oil that big would explode high beta names like semis but the market seems to be taking the China buildout threat seriously.

Effectively, the market is saying that China supply coming through means the constraints that create the pricing/earnings power for the semis is diminishing. I’m not sure if this is actually true, especially given how new these reports are, but it goes to show how fragile the entire semi trade is if a headline like this can wipe out $500B+ from the entire sector today.

As always, if semis go down hard, the software names go up which is why software is rallying heavy today.

Are you buying the semi dip or is this a legitimate concern?

$Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US)

Source: amit

Futures are up, bitcoin is up, and oil is down because of reports that the US and Iran have stopped strikes against each other for the time being.

Trump was supposed to strike on Friday but ordered the military not to, and as a result Iran's retaliation was stopped because there wasn't anything to retaliate to.

I am not sure if this is a sign of actual progress that can lead to something meaningful, but if there was ever a time for some type of ceasefire, it would be when...

- The 10-yr passed 4.7%

- Oil was up 25% in a month

- The sector responsible for the majority of the S&P 500's earnings growth (SMH) was down 16%

- Rate hike probabilities passed 75% for October

- US national gas prices passed $4/gallon again

Any escalation would just lead to more inflation and uncertainty for stocks which obviously wouldn't be the best for the broader economy.

The big headline on Friday was that China talked to Trump and assured him they would never sell weapons to Iran while others reported that China is actually trying to secure a peace deal between Iran and the US.

Maybe there is some truth to this given Trump responded to a reporter on Friday and said, "we are talking to them, maybe there won't be a tipping point, maybe there will be," implying that there might be more talks happening that are positive even though every set of talks recently has not resulted in anything closer to peace.

Big earnings this week with $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Robinhood(HOOD.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) $Reddit(RDDT.US) $Visa(V.US) $UPS(UPS.US) $Mastercard(MA.US) and more along with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. It will be Kevin Warsh's second meeting as Fed Chair.

Hoping we get some relief as more escalation would really just create an ugly environment for inflation, risk on assets, and the potential for rate cuts.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) was down 14% today, its worst day since January 2024, while Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) was down 7% after posting its first negative free cash flow quarter since 2004. The macro backdrop is not helping either. Crude oil has pushed back above $90/barrel for the first time since June and is up 25% over the past month. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield has crossed 4.7%, while jobless claims came in at 187K vs 211K expected, showing a stronger labor market but also raising concerns that inflation pressure could persist. Today was the worst day for the Mag 7 since April 2025 with all 7 stocks erasing $800B of market cap.

2. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) CEO Lisa Su said at the AMD Advancing AI event today that the AI accelerator market could grow to $1.4T by 2030, within a broader compute market expected to reach $2T. She also noted that monthly AI token consumption has surged 158x over the past two years, underscoring how quickly compute demand is scaling. AMD unveiled Helios, its new rack-scale AI system built around the MI450 accelerator, which Su called the fastest AI accelerator in the industry. Helios is now in full production, with shipments expected to start at the end of Q3 and ramp through Q4.

3. Intel $Intel(INTC.US) posted a strong Q2, with revenue of $16.1B vs $14.5B expected, up 25% YoY, and adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.22 expected. Adjusted gross margin came in at 41.8% vs 39% expected, up 1,210 bps YoY, while non-GAAP operating margin reached 17.2% vs 10.7% expected. Segment results were strong across the core business, with CCPG revenue up 13% YoY to $8.9B, DCAI revenue up 59% YoY to $6.3B, total Intel Products revenue up 28% YoY to $15.1B, and Intel Foundry revenue up 31% YoY to $5.8B. Management said Q2 marked Intel’s strongest revenue growth in more than 15 years, driven by better execution, higher factory yields, improved cycle times, and stronger customer demand.

4. Trump warned that the U.S. will hold Iran responsible if the Houthis resume attacks on commercial shipping. He said the Houthis had acted “responsibly” after previous U.S. strikes, but are now “starting up again” after reportedly firing on two Saudi Arabian ships last night. Trump said the Houthis are a proxy of Iran, and that any further attacks would trigger major military punishment against both Iran and the Houthis.

5. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is committing $1.5B to Amkor $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) through a prepayment tied to a multi-year advanced packaging and development agreement. The funding will help Amkor expand U.S. packaging capacity at its Arizona campus as both companies work on next-generation packaging and test technologies for AI and accelerated computing. The partnership will focus on high-density interconnects and heterogeneous integration, which are key for combining multiple chips and components into more powerful systems.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 3.6M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 994K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 940K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 917K contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 732K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 706K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 664K contracts, $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) with 560K contracts, and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 532K contracts.

7. South Korea is moving to tighten rules around leveraged single-stock ETFs and ETNs beginning July 31. Retail investors will now need about $20,300 in cash to open or add to a position, up from roughly $6,800 previously. The key change is that stocks, bonds, and other securities will no longer count toward the deposit requirement, making it harder for retail traders to access these leveraged products.

8. U.S. mortgage rates rose for the third straight week, with the average 30-year fixed climbing to 6.58%, putting rates back near their highest level in a year.

9. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) and Cerebras $Cerebras(CBRS.US) are teaming up on a disaggregated AI inference architecture that divides workloads between both platforms. In the setup, AMD Helios manages prompts and long-context processing, while Cerebras’ Wafer-Scale Engine focuses on ultra-low-latency token generation. The companies say the combined system can deliver up to 5x more tokens per second per watt than Cerebras alone, with initial availability expected through Cerebras Cloud in the second half of 2026.

10. Uber $Uber Tech(UBER.US) cut 10% of roles in its customer service operations as it restructures the division and leans further into AI. The company said fragmented workflows were making it harder to roll out AI at scale, and this marks Uber’s first layoff round specifically tied to AI-driven efficiency.

11. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is reportedly turning away satellite operators looking for dedicated Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028 as the company shifts more of its long-term launch strategy toward Starship, per Bloomberg. SpaceX has also stopped taking future Falcon 9 rideshare reservations and has paused production of some expendable Falcon components, though Falcon 9 is still expected to remain active for NASA and Pentagon missions. The risk is timing: if Starship is not commercially ready by 2028, the market could face a major launch-capacity gap, creating a bigger opening for competitors like Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, and ULA.

12. Meta’s $Meta Platforms(META.US) new $12B Texas data center financing, tied to a nearly 1GW project, is reportedly being discussed at yields above 7%. That is roughly 40 bps higher than Meta’s $27B Hyperion financing from just nine months ago, adding about $48M in annual interest expense. Hyperion bonds are now trading around 96 cents on the dollar, showing how financing costs for massive AI infrastructure projects are starting to move higher.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

Does anyone think the Mag 7 and the Semiconductors can participate together in a bull market?

In 2026, the market has obviously been extremely selective.

For the Semis (cap-ex beneficiaries) to do well, the market has taken down the Mag 7 (cap ex spenders) the entire year.

When the Mag 7 were doing well over the past few weeks, the Semis were going down.

Do they all go up together at some point or for the next few years, will the market continue to be selective with capital allocation to one sector over the other?

Source: amit

Crude Oil has just surpassed $90/barrel for the first time since June, now up +25% in the past month.

At the same time, the 10-year treasury yield has now officially crossed 4.7%.

Jobless claims came in at +187K today vs +211K expected which is great for the labor market but once again means that inflation could see some upwards pressure.

This type of price action with oil and treasury yields just isn't something the Fed or the stock market loves to see.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Alphabet $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) delivered a massive Q2 2026, with revenue up 24% YoY to $119.8B and operating income rising 30% YoY to $40.8B. Search revenue grew 17% YoY to $63.3B, while Google Cloud had its fastest growth quarter ever, surging 82% YoY to $24.8B and producing $8.8B of operating income. Net income jumped 298% YoY to $112.1B. On the AI side, the Gemini app reached 950M monthly active users, and Gemini models are now processing 22B API tokens per minute. The one major drag was free cash flow, which turned negative at -$5.8B, marking Google’s first negative FCF quarter in years. Still, this was the company’s strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years, driven by explosive cloud growth and rising AI usage.

2. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) and Anthropic have reportedly signed an AI server deal worth tens of billions of dollars, per WSJ. Under the agreement, Anthropic would buy up to 2GW of AMD’s latest-generation Instinct MI450 chips beginning in the first half of 2027. AMD also plans to invest up to $5B in Anthropic as deployment milestones are reached, and is reportedly discussing a potential financial backstop for Anthropic’s future data center leases. The deal marks another major push by AMD to deepen its AI infrastructure footprint and compete more directly with Nvidia.

3. President Trump said the U.S. will respond to any Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz by bombing and destroying one Iranian bridge or power plant each time it happens. Trump said the policy applies “from this point forward” and could include infrastructure located near or inside Tehran.

4. Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) reported a mixed Q2, with revenue beating at $28.24B vs $26.32B expected, up 26% YoY, but profitability coming in weaker as adjusted EPS was $0.33 vs $0.51 expected, gross margin was 16.8% vs 19.4% expected, and operating margin fell to 1.4% vs 5.4% expected. Automotive revenue grew 23% YoY to $20.52B, deliveries rose 25% YoY to 480,126, production increased 10% YoY to 451,758, and free cash flow was -$1.09B, better than the -$3.25B estimate. Tesla ended the quarter with $43.52B in cash and investments, while GAAP net income was $1.11B, helped by a $1.01B unrealized gain on its SpaceX investment. The bigger story was AI and autonomy: Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, Robotaxi is now operating across seven major U.S. metros, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48M, up 56% YoY, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries included an FSD subscription. Tesla also said Optimus production lines are being installed for expected production in 2026.

5. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on fears around Kimi K3, DeepSeek, and China’s open-source AI models, saying U.S. companies should be allowed to use them because developers can download, fine-tune, and guardrail the models themselves. Huang said Chinese open-source models are “excellent” and argued the market misunderstood DeepSeek the first time and is now misunderstanding Kimi. His broader point is that strong open models should expand overall AI usage, not hurt closed models, and that more AI usage ultimately means more Nvidia systems, more data centers, and more demand for accelerated compute.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 5.1M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 844K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 828K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 803K contracts, $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) with 746K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 745K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 722K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 548K contracts, and $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 540K contracts.

7. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) raised its FY26 capex outlook to $195B–$205B, up from $180B–$190B, as the company pulls forward capacity to keep up with stronger demand. Google said only a small portion of revenue from existing TPU system sales agreements is expected to be recognized in 2026, with most of it flowing through in 2027. Because of supply constraints, Google also plans to lean more on third-party capacity in Q3 as a temporary bridge, which could create some modest near-term margin pressure.

8. ServiceNow $ServiceNow(NOW.US) delivered a strong Q2, beating on revenue, EPS, cRPO, and operating margin while raising its FY26 outlook. Total revenue came in at $3.99B vs $3.92B expected, up 24% YoY, with subscription revenue up 24.5% YoY to $3.88B. Adjusted EPS was $0.90 vs $0.86 expected, and cRPO reached $13.2B, up 21% YoY and ahead of estimates. The company raised FY26 subscription revenue guidance to $15.76B–$15.78B, while guiding for 81% subscription gross margin, 31.5% operating margin, and 35% free cash flow margin. AI was the biggest highlight, with ServiceNow AI ACV crossing $1B in Q2 and agentic deployments increasing 9x in just nine months. RPO rose to $29B, customers above $5M in ACV grew 23% YoY to 658, and deals over $1M in ACV jumped roughly 40% YoY to 123.

9. Stripe generated $3.2B in free cash flow in 2025, up 52%, as revenue climbed roughly one-third to $6.8B, its fastest growth since 2021, according to The Information. The company also reached $2B of revenue in Q1 2026. Stripe’s momentum is being helped by AI customers, with the company processing subscription and usage-based payments for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI companies. Its billing, invoicing, and tax products are also tracking toward a $1B annual run rate this year. That level of cash generation gives Stripe more flexibility to keep expanding, following its acquisitions of Metronome and Bridge, plus the reported Stripe and Advent International offer of more than $53B for PayPal $Paypal(PYPL.US).

10. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is reportedly gearing up for a major Mac refresh cycle starting this fall and continuing through 2027, per Bloomberg. The first wave is expected to include an M6 14-inch MacBook Pro and updated iMacs, followed later by redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros featuring OLED touchscreens. Apple is also working on new MacBook Air, MacBook Neo, Mac mini, and Mac Studio models, though some release timing may depend on memory-chip availability.

11. Baird reiterated Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) at Outperform with a $250 price target, arguing the company is well positioned as AI workloads shift from training toward inference. The firm’s bullish view is built around Nebius’ full-stack platform, strong software attach, expanding customer base, sector-leading growth, and experienced team from the Yandex carve-out. Baird also said Nebius is moving quickly to strengthen its stack through high-quality acquisitions, helping it compete in a fast-changing AI infrastructure market.

12. OpenAI is now reportedly forecasting roughly $750B of compute spending through 2030, up from about $600B earlier this year, as it continues locking down cloud and data center capacity, per WSJ. The company also announced a $20B initial investment in Project Camellia in Georgia, where OpenAI will serve as lead designer and developer for the first time, with 3.2GW of power contracted between 2028 and 2032. Other reported infrastructure commitments include 6GW with Oracle, $138B over eight years with AWS, and another $250B tied to Microsoft Azure.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

ALPHABET Q2 2026 EARNINGS:

- Revenue $119.8B +24% YoY

- Google Search Revenue $63.3B +17% YoY

- Google Cloud Revenue $24.8B +82% YoY

- Google Cloud Operating Income $8.8B

- Operating Income $40.8B +30% YoY

- Net Income $112.1B +298% YoY

- Gemini App 950M Monthly Active Users

- Gemini Models Processing 22B API Tokens Per Minute

This is the first quarter in years that Google had negative FCF of -$5.8B, but this is also their fastest growing cloud quarter ever and strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years.

The capex spend is leading to them becoming one of the most important companies in serving AI to the world.

Source: amit

GOOGLE RAISES CAPEX FROM $190B TO $205B FOR FISCAL YEAR 2026

2027 CAPEX NOT DISCLOSED BUT WILL BE “SIGNIFICANTLY MORE”

Semis loving it after hours but Google is taking the hit as the market digests what “significantly more” means 😂

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $IREN(IREN.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US)

Source: amit

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Google is in a weird position today.

Let’s say they raise CapEx from $190B, the expected amount right now, to $200-$220B.

It would be super bullish for all the Semis, but would the market think that’s bearish for hyperscalers?

Would $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) go down on that news because they will be expected to raise? Google just diluted by $85B so the assumption is they will either increase capex or at the very least keep it flat per their previous guidance.

Now, let’s say Google increases their cloud business revenue growth rate again from last Q’s 63% to something like 70%. Amazing growth, but they obviously need to spend more on capex to meet the demand, does the market think that the capex increase is justified at that point if their cloud business is meaningfully growing?

What if their RPO, which is now at $450B, goes to something like $550B? Oracle and Microsoft increased their RPO’s by $100-$200B last Q, but the problem is most of that RPO is coming from OpenAI and Anthropic.

So if Google says the RPO isn’t distributed but more concentrated, does the market get concerned on if that RPO can convert into revenue? Google is also making their own chips, what implication does that business have on $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) even if they increase capex?

Last Q, Google also had equity stakes in $SpaceX(SPCX.US) and Anthropic which saw valuation reratings that boosted their EPS. They won’t have that this time.

It’s going to be one of those quarters where the market will have to ask many questions around what is happening with capex, why is it increasing if it is, and where the growth is coming from to justify the increase.

If they decrease capex, it becomes a whole different question.

I think we get a strong quarter but many questions to be answered that Google will set the stage for when it comes to Big Tech earnings.

Source: amit

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

NVIDIA'S JENSEN HUANG GIVES AN UPDATE ON KIMI K3 AND CHINA'S OPEN SOURCE MODELS:

"American companies should absolutely be allowed to use Chinese AI models. There's a misconception that somehow there are backdoors connected to China in someway. You download the models, fine tune them, guardrail them in any way you want."

"These Chinese opensource models are excellent. The market has misunderstood the impact of DeepSeek the first time. It's misunderstood the impact of Kimi this time. Open models are great for the whole industry, there will be more usage which will require selling more Nvidia computers and building more datacenters."

"Great models lead to more usage. There is also a misunderstanding that open models are going to hurt the closed models, that is also wrong."

Source: amit

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Woah.

SMCI guided for 8.4-8.7% gross margins last quarter. They have a TTM gross margin of 8.83%.

They just came out after hours and said they are increasing their guide for gross margins to now 15-17%.

Even during 2024-2025, their gross margins went from 11-13%.

How does a commodity server rack provider double their margins in the past 90 days?

If anything, it feels like the company is either rolling out new products with better margins in the AI space or gaining more leverage with their customers to command better margins. If a low margin business like $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) can gain leverage, then other AI names can as well, which is part of the reason that competitors like $Dell Tech(DELL.US) and $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) are up after hours.

Pretty incredible move from SMCI and could be a big moment for many AI names that are able to increase margins.

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) +15%

Source: amit

The Semis are having their best day in a few weeks, but still significantly lower from their ATHs.

If the Semis have a good day, once again it means the SaaS and Mag 7 names should have a bad day, which is what is playing out again.

At this point I am curious how this trajectory continues to play out — so far this year, hyperscalers go down on increased capex and semiconductor names, which benefit from that capex, go up. The software names go down with the hyperscalers because the AI infra trade going green assumes that the application layer companies will be hurt by AI.

However, we just saw one of the worst drawdowns for momentum (which were basically semis) during July in the past 25 years. Multiple stories of liquidations and margin calls across the board.

Does that experience mean people go back to buying the boring SaaS and Mag 7 companies to have more sustainable, less violent volatility with cash flows that won’t get discounted due to cyclicality or fears of capex going down? If anything, the Mag 7 would rally on capex going down.

Or do people double down on the AI infra names as they are likely to steal all the EPS growth and continue to get a larger premium based on the discount towards the companies spending the capex? Because if the money goes right back to the semis, we end up getting the same market dynamics that we’ve seen for the past 3 months.

If we do get a doubling down, does the same leverage that just got flushed out of the system come back? If the hyperscalers all increase capex, do they go down again in order for the semis to go up?

These big tech earnings will be really important to see how the market is perceiving and interpreting the future of capex spend.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is developing a new AI chip that could run Gemini models 6x to 10x more efficiently than its latest TPUs, per The Information. The chip, internally called “Frozen v2,” would bake parts of Gemini’s architecture directly into silicon, reducing data movement and simplifying inference decisions. Google is targeting deployment as early as 2028 to help ease its AI compute shortage, though the design would trade flexibility for major gains in speed and power efficiency.

2. Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) is expanding its partnership with AMD $AMD(AMD.US) and will deploy AMD’s Helios rack-scale systems on Azure for frontier AI inference. The platform combines MI455X GPUs, Venice CPUs, Pensando networking, and ROCm software, with shipments to Microsoft beginning in the second half of 2026. Azure will also add new AMD-powered virtual machines for agentic AI, data pipelines, and semiconductor design, marking a broader adoption of AMD’s full AI infrastructure stack.

3. AUM in U.S. leveraged semiconductor ETFs has fallen $63B from the June peak to $100B, the lowest level since late April. That marks a 39% decline, the largest drawdown since April 2025, when assets more than halved from their August high. The semiconductor unwind accounts for 63% of the broader $100B drop in AUM across all U.S. leveraged ETFs over the same period. The selloff follows a massive ramp, with assets in these funds nearly tripling between late March and the June peak. Even after the pullback, leveraged semiconductor ETF assets are still up 400% from January 2023 levels.

4. Archer $Archer Aviation(ACHR.US) and Anduril unveiled Thunder, an autonomous attack VTOL aircraft, with first flight planned for 2027. The runway-independent hybrid-electric aircraft is designed to operate autonomously alongside crewed attack and assault aircraft. The dual-use platform features tiltrotors and modular payloads for both defense and commercial missions. Full-scale surrogate flights have already been completed, and Archer plans to announce its first commercial customers later this week.

5. Chinese AI models are taking record share among U.S. firms on OpenRouter. The proportion of tokens used by American companies running through Chinese models has climbed to roughly 58%, a record high. OpenRouter lets developers access and compare models from multiple providers, making it a useful real-world signal of AI model adoption. Chinese model usage has tripled since mid-January, overtaking U.S. peers on the platform for the first time in March and briefly hitting 63% in early July. At the start of 2025, Chinese models were under 10% of usage, while U.S. models were around 80%. DeepSeek has become the most popular choice among American firms in recent months.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.1M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.8M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 951K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 884K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 691K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 640K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 606K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 506K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 492K contracts.

7. BofA reiterated its Buy rating on CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) with a $140 price target. Analyst Tal Liani raised FY26 capex estimates to $34B from $29B, saying capex remains a key indicator of buildout progress and hardware pricing. BofA expects Q2 operating margin of 2.4%, slightly below the Street at 2.8%, but sees margins improving through the rest of the year as active power drives revenue recognition. By Q4, BofA expects operating margin to reach 14.6%, up from 1.0% in Q1, showing strong operating leverage. The firm also pushed back on competition concerns from SpaceX and Meta, arguing AI compute demand still far exceeds supply, making access to capacity the real bottleneck rather than provider choice.

8. IREN $IREN(IREN.US) raised its 2026 AI Cloud ARR target to over $4B, up from its prior target of $3.7B. The company announced new AI cloud contracts representing $2.8B in total contract value, with approximately 85% of the updated ARR target now under contract. Goldman Sachs estimates the newly announced contracts represent an additional roughly $1B in contracted revenue with an average term of around 3 years. IREN also said recent agreements include customer prepayments covering about 45% of GPU capex, with customer contracts having a weighted average term of approximately 4 years.

9. UBS says Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) could repurchase more than 40% of its shares by the end of 2028. The firm expects Micron to generate over $40B in free cash flow through 2028, and once its buyback restriction expires on December 9, 2026, UBS says the company could potentially use that cash to buy back more than 40% of its shares at the current price. Morgan Stanley said that memory stocks are trading at attractive prices but their best risk to reward names in the semi space are $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia and $Broadcom(AVGO.US) Broadcom.

10. Bloom Energy $Bloom Energy(BE.US) shares are trading lower after New Mexico regulators rejected permits for a gas pipeline planned to supply Oracle’s Project Jupiter data center for the second time. The decision could delay the campus, which is expected to use up to 2.5GW of Bloom Energy’s gas-powered fuel cells. Energy Transfer may now pursue an alternative pipeline route.

11. Intel $Intel(INTC.US) plans additional layoffs in its data center group as part of a broader effort to become a more focused and efficient company, CNBC reports. Intel said the unit is realigning roles and skills for long-term success, though the number of affected employees was not disclosed.

12. Trump signed three proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 imposing additional 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods in response to what the White House calls Canada’s discriminatory treatment of U.S. products. The tariffs cover different categories of Canadian imports, including products ranging from wine to hockey sticks to cement, and apply even if goods originate under USMCA. Exemptions include energy, potash, goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs, fish, critical minerals, and certain other products. The tariffs take effect 30 days after signing.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATST SHOW ON EARTH,

Source: amit

TRUMP: EVERY TIME IRAN KILLS A US SOLIDER, THEY WILL PAY

So, the updates around the Iran War this morning have been confusing…

Reuters reported that Pakistan and Qatar are trying to create a “10-day framework” for a ceasefire which would put an end to the recent strikes. We initially had a 60 day ceasefire with the June MOU but that has since been violated.

That got oil prices to come down this morning from $85 to $82, but then…

- Bahrain reported Iranian attacks

- Kuwait intercepted Iranian missiles

- A Saudi Vessel caught on fire in the Strait due to attacks

- A Greek Vessel caught on fire due to attacks

This is along with the strikes that were continued this weekend by the US.

Maybe we get a 10 day pause to begin negotiations again but if we do, it just feels like much more has to be resolved in order to have that pause lead to an actual end to the conflict.

Source: amit

Although price action has been a bit weak today, some very bullish datacenter/capex news over the past 24 hours...

- $IREN(IREN.US) signed $2.8B of deals with AI labs, bullish compute

- Kimi K3 said over the weekend they are pausing subscriptions because of demand which seems to be entirely consumer and not enterprise yet, bullish compute

- $Hut 8 Mining(HUT.US) got a 15-year $9.8B deal today, bullish compute

- $Microsoft(MSFT.US) is expanding their partnership with $AMD(AMD.US) and buying more chips, bullish compute

- The Information reported that $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is developing a new chip to use in-house called Frozen V2, they will have to use many of the chip suppliers in the stack to build more chips, bullish compute

The CapEx sentiment shift hasn't gone back to normal and Google earnings this week will be the first test to reaffirm the market's expectations of capex, but plenty of new deals and announcements that continue to be bullish on compute constraints and the trade associated with them overall.

Source: amit

Well, looks like this Iran War is not ending anytime soon...

- Over the past 24 hours, the the US announced that two service members were killed and several others were wounded in an Iranian attack on a US air base in Jordan.

- According to U.S. officials, the base has been used by American warplanes to conduct operations against Iran.

- Trump called the deaths of two U.S. service members in an Iranian attack “very sad,” according to NewsNation, reiterated that the U.S. will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and said he “couldn’t care less” if Iran abandons the MOU.

Trump has reportedly ordered U.S. CENTCOM to "open the gates of hell" on Iran following the deaths of U.S. service members in Jordan, according to NPR, citing U.S. officials.

A separate U.S. official told CBS News that tonight's strikes are expected to be significantly larger and more extensive than previous operations.

Crude derivatives are trading at $83.60 today, up 18% from the lows two weeks ago.

Source: amit

$Grab(GRAB.US)

This will be a long post and dive into many things including Grab's stock performance, some updated thoughts on my Grab thesis after having visited Southeast Asia last month, and new models for valuation.

Let's get into it.

First off, it's obvious that the stock has not performed in the way that most would like since I first initiated coverage, which was at $4.50. The stock is currently at $3.57, so it is down 20% in the 1.5 years since I laid out my thesis.

I think there are many reasons for this but the common theme behind these reasons are less about the fundamentals and more about the macro. It sucks to say that because it would imply that larger forces have played a role outside of the business's execution, but I do think that has happened and unfortunately has made the investment, so far, unsuccessful.

Two major macro disruptions hurt grab: the price of oil skyrocketing and the violent shift to AI stocks. On the price of oil, the company actually has weathered the storm very nicely if you look at their latest earnings, but the sentiment around companies in a region that is prone to oil price risk has been very bad. On AI, this is something that I quite frankly just didn't see coming. $Uber Tech(UBER.US) is an exceptional business and in my opinion undervalued, but the overhang of robotaxis has led the stock to not do much. The intensity of the AI buildout that began in early 2025 meant that capital was rotating and Grab wouldn't play a role in that infra cap-ex trade which meant it would be prone to be stuck. I can't even blame the market here, why invest in a company that is growing 25% when you can pick memory names or neoclouds growing 500%?

Having said that, the fundamentals of the business have only gotten better. I know that in this market environment, if you can't get 20% ROI in a week then your stock is failure, but if we are being a bit more realistic...things take time. HOOD took time. PLTR took time. Not every name explodes because of a datacenter contract and I believe that has given some people unrealistic expectations. Regardless, an opportunity cost is an opportunity cost and if the stock price is the basis for judgement, then the investment has not fully played out yet. Thankfully, my time horizon is greater than 1.5 years. I did have calls on GRAB in addition to shares for Jan 2027 and if there is not a meaningful change over the coming months, those calls will be worth nothing. That is the game -- if you take a risk with options, you have to be ready for the downside.

Second, my experience in Southeast Asia. I visited Singapore and basically used GRAB every single day, multiple times a day. My initial thesis was based on a simple idea: compounding earnings growth while consolidating market share within the region. Being able to build the superapp that can grow users would allow upsells and as margins expand, so would operating leverage, which would elevate the company's value. Nothing in my personal experience changed that thesis and if anything, actually witnessing how intense the product was in the region strengthened my conviction.

In order to deal with competition in the region, Grab either has to expand or offer better deals to out compete. With 50M+ MAU, I believe they have still under penetrated the region and have a significant runway of growth to go in order to achieve these goals. Ultimately, many of the competitors in the region are burning cash and can't produce a profit. Eventually, I believe that marketshare continues to consolidate and the one left standing should be able to benefit the most.

Third, valuation. So, I have updated my models and assumptions based on Q1 numbers. I believe the conservative, fair intrinsic value for the name is at $7.50 which is why I continue to own shares.

Q1 2026:

Revenue guidance: $4.04-4.10B (+20-22%)

Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $700-720M (+40%+)

Q1 revenue: $955M (+24% YoY)

Q1 Adjusted EBITDA: $154M (+46% YoY)

Loan book: $1.44B (+130% YoY)

Financial Services approaching EBITDA breakeven

Ongoing $400M accelerated share repurchase

Net cash balance remains one of the strongest in internet/platform companies

For 2027, I would use deliberately conservative assumptions across all three scenarios.

In the bear case, Grab grows revenue by 15% to approximately $4.7 billion and reaches a 19% adjusted EBITDA margin, producing roughly $900 million of adjusted EBITDA. In the base case, revenue grows by 18% to about $4.85 billion, while the adjusted EBITDA margin expands to 22%, resulting in approximately $1.07 billion of adjusted EBITDA. In the bull case, revenue grows by 22% to around $5.0 billion and the adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 25%, generating about $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA. These projections assume only moderate operating leverage, even though Grab has recently been expanding profitability faster than revenue.

For valuation, I would apply an 18x adjusted EBITDA multiple in the bear case, a 24x multiple in the base case, and a 28x multiple in the bull case.

Grab should trade at some discount to larger global platforms because of its geographic concentration in Southeast Asia and the risks associated with emerging markets. However, that discount is partly offset by Grab’s leading regional position, improving margins, financial-services growth, strong balance sheet, advertising opportunity, and continued share repurchases.

In the bear case, applying an 18x multiple to $900 million of adjusted EBITDA produces an enterprise value of approximately $16.2 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, Grab’s equity value would be about $21.2 billion. Using approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares outstanding, that implies a value of roughly $5.25 per share, with a reasonable bear-case range of approximately $5.25 to $5.75.

In the base case, applying a 24x multiple to approximately $1.07 billion of adjusted EBITDA produces an enterprise value of about $25.7 billion. Adding roughly $5 billion of net cash results in an equity value of approximately $30.7 billion. Based on approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares, the implied value is around $7.55 per share. That supports a base-case valuation range of approximately $7.50 to $8.25 per share.

In the bull case, applying a 28x multiple to $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA results in an enterprise value of approximately $35 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, Grab’s equity value would reach about $40 billion. Dividing that by approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares produces an implied value of roughly $9.90 per share, supporting a bull-case range of approximately $9.75 to $11.00.

My preferred valuation framework therefore produces a bear case of $5.25 to $5.75 per share, a base case of $7.50 to $8.25 per share, and a bull case of $9.75 to $11.00 per share.

The base case does not require aggressive assumptions. It only assumes that Grab continues growing at a healthy but moderating rate, improves margins as the business scales, and receives a valuation multiple that remains below many higher-growth global technology and marketplace companies.

A valuation of $8.50 per share is also defensible without relying on an extreme bull case. One path would be for Grab to generate roughly $5 billion of revenue and achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23% to 24%, producing approximately $1.15 billion of adjusted EBITDA. At a 24x multiple, that would imply an enterprise value of roughly $27.6 billion. Adding approximately $5 billion of net cash would produce an equity value of around $32.6 billion, or approximately $8.05 per share before factoring in additional share repurchases or stronger cash generation. A slightly higher EBITDA result, a modestly higher multiple, or a lower diluted share count could push the valuation into the $8.50 range.

Another path to $8.50 would be a moderate valuation rerating. If Grab generates approximately $1.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA and trades at 26x adjusted EBITDA rather than 24x, its enterprise value would be approximately $28.6 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, the equity value would be about $33.6 billion, which translates to approximately $8.30 per share using 4.05 billion diluted shares. Additional buybacks, higher net cash, or slightly stronger earnings could bring the implied value closer to $8.50 to $9.00 per share.

The market may also be underestimating Grab because it is still often viewed primarily as a ride-hailing and food-delivery company. In reality, Grab is developing several potential profit engines. Mobility can continue generating strong margins and cash flow, delivery benefits from greater scale and operational efficiency, financial services could become a meaningful earnings contributor as the loan book grows, and advertising remains relatively early in its development. At the same time, artificial intelligence and automation may improve driver utilization, merchant performance, customer targeting, and corporate efficiency.

In all of these scenarios, I am also not anticipating revenue growth of 30% or above. This is the wild card, given the company is expanding to Taiwan and has a host of new initiatives that they have been getting into with M&A, if they can reaccelerate to 30%+, it changes all assumptions and could further lead to a rerating.

Overall, I would view approximately $7.50 as a conservative base-case intrinsic value if Grab simply executes on its current trajectory. A value closer to $8.50 is reasonable if the company delivers modest upside to current expectations, continues expanding margins, repurchases shares, and receives even a small valuation rerating from the market.

So, those are my updated thoughts. Some have asked why I don't talk about the name everyday, it's simple: there isn't much to discuss. The name is stuck based on the market's lack of interest which is why I think the discount has become so intense. I continue to hold and until I feel the thesis changes dramatically, if it doesn't, then I will continue to engage in the most boring part of investing: being patient and trusting a thesis can play out.

Source: amit

$Meta Platforms(META.US)

BREAKING: Meta is in talks to rent computing capacity to Anthropic in a deal worth up to $10B over 2 years, as per the New York Times.

Meta went down today on news that they hired a senior AWS executive to help build their cloud division.

Why? Because it was confirmation that they are doubling down on capex and selling compute, which means their FCF will take a hit. Ironically, the semis should have been up on this news but the Kimi K3 headlines have kept them down.

Now, Meta is slightly reversing on this headline about selling compute to Anthropic…which begs the question…if the market is happy about Meta selling compute to a big lab, why are they upset about Meta spending more on capex in order to build that compute business?

Tons of weird narratives conflicting with each other, but it looks like META is officially getting into the neocloud game.

Source: amit