POET Tech

It think it's stupid that "AI Bubble" gets used over and over. In infra names you have:

- 1-3x fwd P/E memory companies from Samsung to $ESMT. With HBM players now having hyperscaler multi-year price floor LTAs.

- Optical companies like $POET Tech(POET.US) traded -$97M under net cash. Valuing the operating business very negatively, not even at $0.

- While AI companies with larger premiums continue to record demand over the next 3-5 years. Such as the new $20B LTAs signed w/ $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) to $5B LTAs signed w/ $Lumentum(LITE.US).

Can someone in the media honestly see negative EV high-beta optical companies, where 2 years of burnrate would still value the company below $0.

or single digit memory companies with contracted demand + price floors years out and say that's a bubble?

Many of these names are extremely profitable today...

But obviously there's other elements inside the theme, such as:

- Certain startups like Instinct that look like a private valuation bubble.

- Leveraged Neoclouds that didn't finance properly

- and AI lab valuations and commitments, which should be viewed cautiously.

But everything gets grouped into one with the boogyman of "leverage" or "debt".

Yes, valuations can compress or correct from macro, potential regulatory uncertainty, or potential capex reductions.

But for the companies physically powering the AI buildout, it looks more like the Great AI Deleveraging of 2026...

Than anything like fundamental demand destruction.

As more earnings come out and free cash flow accumulates over time.

I'm confident in a recovery, especially in bottlenecks, and for markets to eventually discern durability + growth over frothy valuations tied to AI.

$POET Tech(POET.US) | Wedbush on POET Technologies Inc: 'We'd note that the news will likely be viewed as positive'.

"Lumilens, POET: Emerges from stealth with $700M in additional funding and a hyperscale customer View: The optical startup yesterday announced that it has raised an incremental $700M, bringing total funding to $900M to date and valuing Lumilens at $5.51B. In addition, the company indicated that it has secured a multi-billion supply contract with one of the four large US hyperscale accounts. We'd note that the news will likely be viewed as positive for POET Technologies which earlier this year had announced a $50M Lumilens purchase order for EOI based engines."

Earlier today, optical interconnect company Lumilens "emerges from stealth" at a $5.5B valuation, after raising $700m.

Just as a recap from $POET Tech(POET.US) / $SIVE Linkedin OSINT mapping I shared earlier, Lumilens was supplying a top 3 hyperscaler customer.

So we got confirmation of that a month later, along with the material figure that Lumilens has a "multi-billion-dollar customer agreement".

And just for reference, $POET Tech(POET.US) has existing contracts with Lumilens ($50m purchase order, up to $500m) + contracts with $SIVE (depending on product lines).

I actually took tiny positions in POET again after reading this news, since it finally gives them visibility into extremely well funded hyperscaler suppliers (on top of Poet's really large balance sheet).

But TLDR:

> Lumilens around similar (or even higher) valuations as Lightmatter/Ayar, bigger than markets thought with hyperscaler customers.

> nice read through upstream on $POET Tech(POET.US) (derisking) / $SIVE.

> Great for optical valuations in general, seeing a company go to $5.5B in 2 years.

For $SIVE, Q2 earnings from $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) yesterday is strong third-party confirmation of Sivers' 2027-2028 photonics ramp.

Reminder: In June, Sivers signed a collaboration with Global Foundries that puts their lasers into GF's SiPh reference designs and CPO platform.

Read-throughs from $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) earnings transcript:

1. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) silicon photonics revenue to "more than double in 2026". NPO ramp in 2027 / CPO ramp in 2028.

- Important external validation of $SIVE's entire photonics thesis.

2. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) 2027 NPO / 2028 CPO cadence lines up with Sivers' own guidance.

- "Production ready status in 2027".

- Multiple ramps in 2027.

- Sivers estimated CPO SAM of $1.0-1.4B by 2028.

- So GF is effectively narrating the demand curve into which Sivers has positioned their Glasgow ops + Win Semi capacity.

3. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) CID grew 20% sequentially and 62% YoY which is the fastest quarterly growth since 2022. Growth guidance raised to 50-60% YoY.

- Direct demand validation for the platform Sivers plugged into, from their collaboration in June. Growing demand.

- GF's acceleration is the leading indicator Sivers earnings in 2027+ with funnel filling upstream before Sivers seeing the units.

4. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) CEO: "We now expect our silicon photonics revenue to more than double in 2026 compared with the year prior"

- Clean revenue funnel logic if GF SiPho more than doubles and Sivers is the partnered external laser route into GF reference designs.

- Sivers has guided its own laser qualification to "production ready status in 2027" so Sivers captures this as design-in/NRE in 2026 and unit revenue in 2027+, not coincident with GF's 2026 doubling.

5. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) secured 7 new optical networking design wins with customers from transceiver suppliers and hyperscaler players.

- All are a potential downstream pull for external laser content.

- Sivers has been building this coverage independently: $Jabil(JBL.US) 1.6T LRO, $POET Tech(POET.US) ELS, O-Net/Enablence ELS, and legacy Ayar Labs.

- Looks like Sivers' Q1'26 disclosure of an opportunity pipeline up 77% YTD to $799M is the mirror image datapoint to GF's design win momentum.

6. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) have "more than 40 customers today in SiPho" with customers telling GF "I don't have enough secured."

- This just corroborates Sivers' narrative of an InP laser chokepoint and supports their pre-emptive capacity build via WIN Semi.

- If GF customers are scrambling, the matching external laser capacity is just as scarce = pricing power for Sivers.

7. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) could "10x photonics capacity"

- GF ramping PIC output 10x at existing fabs implies a proportional pull on external light sources.

- For Sivers, they need to scale InP output in lockstep or lose allocation to $Lumentum(LITE.US) / $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US).

- Sivers' answer is the WIN outsourcing + Glasgow expansion (historically framed as targeting >1,000 wafers/week).

- Interested to see if Sivers report capex/capacity commitments scaled to GF's 10x narrative.

Just as a list of the main read-throughs you can draw from Global Foundries' comments to Sivers.

⚡ 𝐔𝐏𝐃𝐀𝐓𝐄: Trump Administration Drafting Ban on New Chinese Data Center Component Imports - $POET Tech(POET.US) $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US)

👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:

➤ Trump administration is drafting a ban on new 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 component imports.

➤ Proposal targets new Chinese 𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿 models used in AI data centers.

➤ 𝗙𝗖𝗖 is preparing the measure and aims to publish it this year.

➤ Officials cite risks including 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗳𝘁, malware, and service disruption.

➤ Proposal could impact 𝗭𝗵𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗷𝗶 𝗜𝗻𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁, which holds a 𝟮𝟳% global market share.

➤ 𝗖𝗼𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 and 𝗟𝘂𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺 could benefit as alternative suppliers.

➤ Ban may increase infrastructure costs for U.S. cloud providers, including 𝗔𝗪𝗦.

➤ FCC has recently expanded restrictions on Chinese drones, routers, robots, and inverters.

➤ Proposal remains under review and could still be modified or shelved.

👉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀:

➤ Could reshape the AI data center supply chain in the United States.

➤ May accelerate supplier diversification away from Chinese networking hardware.

➤ Could benefit U.S. optical networking companies if restrictions are implemented.

➤ Highlights continued U.S.-China technology and national security tensions affecting AI infrastructure.

👉 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀:

𝗗𝗶𝘃𝘆𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗵 𝗞𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗸, AI Policy Expert at Beacon Global Strategies:

"Transceivers definitely pose a risk. As the data center buildout scales up, you want to make sure the data center supply chain is secure from the get-go."

𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗘𝗺𝗯𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗪𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗼𝗻:

"China will take all necessary measures in response to any action that causes material harm to its interests."

Morgan Stanley on CPO:

What are the Transmission Approaches As Industry Eventually Hits "Copper Wall"?

"Co-packaged optics (CPO) is emerging as a critical architectural shift for AI datacenter networking, driven by the rising power, bandwidth, and density constraints of traditional pluggable optical modules"

"Reduced interconnect power is the most tangible near-term benefit, with CPO potentially lowering optical interconnect power consumption by roughly 50-80%"

"Key participants include Broadcom and NVIDIA in switch platforms, Lightmatter, Ayar Labs, Marvell/Celestial AI, and POET in optical engines and photonics, TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and Tower in silicon photonics foundry capacity, and Lumentum, Coherent, and Sivers in laser supply."

$SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers.

Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners.

It could also point to broader foundry allocation/scaling beyond the already announced WIN partnership.

My feedback is that it's very bullish if it's comprised of long-only institutions and there's no heavy discount (30 day VWAP). Otherwise, would need to reaccess if there's arb or short term investors.

This is the perfect time to get ideal strategic investors like $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) on the cap table. As well as focusing on having more US institutional support.

Especially considering $56M is a small check to a single US institution that want photonics exposure (eg. look at Poet's $400M registered direct offering for sentiment).

A lot of it is "it depends when more info comes out", but this looks like a very positive signal for mass production given Siver's fab-lite models.

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $POET Tech(POET.US) POET Reaffirms Production Ramp, Targets 1 Million Monthly Units by 2027

👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

➤ POET expects 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 of optical engines to begin in 𝐇𝟐 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔.

➤ Production capacity is targeted to reach 𝟏 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 units per month by 𝐞𝐧𝐝-𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟕.

➤ POET raised 𝟖𝟑𝟎 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 in equity, with up to 𝟔𝟔𝟏 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 more through warrants.

➤ Company plans an initial 𝟓𝟎 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 capital equipment investment in 𝐇𝟐 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔.

➤ POET Blazar™ remains on schedule for 𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞-𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐞 deployment in 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟖.

➤ More than 𝟏𝟎 active customer engagements could generate 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 in annual revenue.

➤ Recent wins include the 𝐋𝐮𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐬 agreement, an 𝟖𝟎𝟎𝐆 optical engine order, and a new ELS NRE contract.

➤ POET plans to expand its workforce by 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝟓𝟎 employees from the current 𝟏𝟏𝟓.

👉 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬:

➤ Production ramp positions POET for growing 𝐀𝐈 and hyperscale data center demand.

➤ Capacity expansion supports potential 𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞 growth from existing customer pipeline.

➤ Strong capital position enhances manufacturing scale and 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧 resilience.

Just some notes on $POET Tech(POET.US) AGM and read through on optical markets:

- "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years"

$Lumentum(LITE.US) CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now.

- NRE with a new customer, building on POET’s interposer for high-power external light source.

This is high confidence $SIVE as laser supplier given the Sept 29, 2025 PR on ELS, and new customer qualification would be material for revenue if it goes into volume ramp.

- Poet expects Lumilens commercial agreement to scale to over $500 million over the next 5 years.

Lumilens claimed a top-3 hyperscaler was their initial customer (Linkedin OSINT)

- $830M cash on hand on balance sheet (this is more for Poet fundamentals).

- "The entire optical components industry today is facing a severe shortage of critical components."

Reaffirming what we know already regarding optical bottlenecks.

- "Production ramp in the second half of 2026 this year."

Just production timelines H2.

In terms of $POET Tech(POET.US) volumes:

- existing capacity around 1 million optical engines per year

- projected demand exiting 2027 around 1 million optical engines per month

- roughly 10x capacity expansion

I don't own Poet, but if management delivers on these projections it directionally looks very positive.

However something to note is that unlike other suppliers that have named hyperscaler customers to to back up capacity revenues like $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US): $POET Tech(POET.US) seems more questionable.

But this does look like a very positive outlook for $POET Tech(POET.US) if they match projections.

Fun new information discovery from Poet OSINT community:

Seems likely that $POET Tech(POET.US) / $SIVE are going to power a Top-3 hyperscaler (either Amazon, Microsoft, Google).

Given a Linkedin update from Ankur Singla (CEO of Lumilens).

Who stated their customer is one of the top 3 hyperscalers with their post focusing on CPO/NPO.

With that clue, seems more likely the Sivers CW DFB light source path over other EML suppliers given it's CPO Scale Out/NPO.

If you don't remember, Sivers is the laser supplier to Poet. And Poet has purchase agreements with Lumilens.

Always fun to find major potential breadcrumbs in the wild before they're officially confirmed. (Disclosure, long Sive)