Silicon Motion Tech

Memory market update:

- Counterpoint forecast a 20% QoQ increase for DRAM.

- Trendforce are more conservative at 13-18% for conventional DRAM and 10-15% for NAND.

- Morgan Stanley raised Q3 PC DRAM forecast to 15-20% increases QoQ from 3-8%.

These aren't perfectly comparable baskets but the main conclusion is that tightness still persists.

SK Hynix CEO and Chairman both confirmed supply tightness post-US IPO, potentially into the 2030s.

- Samsung is reportedly seeking a Q3 DRAM ASP increase of up to 20% QoQ, with LPDDR increases potentially exceeding 20%.

That would be their third consecutive quarterly hike after +90% in Q1 and +60% in Q2. This is above TrendForce's forecast but if price increases stick, $Micron Tech(MU.US) and SK hynix would likely follow.

- TrendForce expects Q3 server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18%.

Multi year supply agreements limit price increases for some large volume US cloud customers. Which means customers without LTAs and incremental volumes sold outside those agreements would absorb the largest hikes.

- SK hynix reportedly plan to scrap price caps in its new LTAs so that spot upside flows straight through, while $Micron Tech(MU.US)'s SCAs carry floors and ceilings.

- TrendForce estimates HBM will consume 22% of the top three suppliers' DRAM wafer input in 2026 while producing only 9% of DRAM bits.

Those figures rise to 30% & 13% in 2027. This disproportionate wafer consumption is the main structural reason why conventional / server DRAM can remain scarce, even as capex increases.

- On HBM4 itself, 2027 contract negotiations land around Q4'26 and Digitimes model HBM4 moving from ~$2/Gb in 2H26 toward $4-5/Gb next year.

- Morgan Stanley suggest NAND remains undersupplied through 2027.

- TrendForce expects mature SLC NAND pricing to rise 120-170% in 2H26, driven by shrinking mature-node capacity & MLC -> SLC migration.

Positive read-through for $Sandisk(SNDK.US), Kioxia and $Micron Tech(MU.US), while $Silicon Motion Tech(SIMO.US) offers controller leverage.

- Worth noting Kioxia has filed for a US ADS listing, and $Sandisk(SNDK.US) has raised NAND product pricing double digits while extending the JV with Kioxia to 2034.

- $Micron Tech(MU.US) also recently broke ground on a ¥1.5 trillion Hiroshima expansion, targeting advanced DRAM & HBM shipments around summer 2028.

Just some consolidated updates on memory:

- $Micron Tech(MU.US) leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized.

- Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $Sandisk(SNDK.US) / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $Silicon Motion Tech(SIMO.US) and upstream.

- MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond

- UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est.

- UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter.

- Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations.

Something to note:

Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters.

But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation.

I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names...

I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.

November sales by Taiwan stock market listed companies rose 17% year-on-year to total NT$4.67 trillion (US$149.7 billion), the second highest ever and up 0.68% from October, media report. The record high was NT$4.68 trillion in September.

-Foxconn led with NT$844.3 billion

-TSMC NT$343.6 billion

-Wistron NT$280.6 billion

-WT Micro NT$116.5 billion

-Quanta NT$192.9 billion

The top 5 are split between AI server makers: Foxconn, Wistron, Quanta; and 2 semiconductor firms. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $Silicon Motion Tech(SIMO.US) $Himax Tech(HIMX.US)

Source: Dan Nystedt