SPDR S&P 500

Applovin

Conference Minutes

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The following is a summary of the 3Q25 earnings call minutes for $AppLovin(APP.US) organized by Dolphin Research. For financial report interpretation, please refer to &#34;Without High Growth and Violent Aesthetics, Is Applovin Still Attractive?&#34; 1. Review of Core Financial Information This Quarter: The upgrade of the core gaming business model drove revenue to increase by 68% year-on-year to approximately $1.405 billion; adjusted EBITDA reached $1.158 billion, up 79% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 82%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous quarter, mainly due to the leverage effect and the moderate alleviation of foreign exchange fluctuations...

MediaAlpha

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VG S&P 500 Grw

Axon Enterprise

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Tencent Holdings Limited

Tencent

Global Self Storage

Hasbro

Ameriprise Financial

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Tencent HK SDR 10to1

Applovin (Minutes): Currently, the week-over-week growth rate of new user spending on the self-service advertising platform has reached 50%

Today’s Key News Recap

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0311 ｜Dolphin Research focuses on: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. Last night, U.S. stocks plummeted, with the S&amp;P 500 index falling below the 200-day moving average, marking its first entry into what is referred to as the &#34;danger zone&#34; by the market. This was mainly due to concerns over high inflation and the U.S. economy potentially falling into recession, triggered by tariffs. When asked whether the U.S. would experience a recession this year, Trump did not rule out the possibility, stating that the economy is undergoing a &#34;transition period.&#34; As a result, Hong Kong and A-shares experienced varying degrees of decline this morning, but both rebounded and turned positive by the end of trading. Additionally, today, Trump plans to meet with top business executives...

Trump Media & Tech

Trump Media & Tech - CW28

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Hong Kong and A-share rebates; New energy Collective Surge ｜Today's important news review

Strategy Report

Hot topic

Trump once again wields the tariff stick, and global assets seem to have entered a risk-off mode, including the Chinese assets that were originally being reassessed, which have also entered a correction mode. Dolphin Research seizes the opportunity to discuss the policy logic of Trump’s current administration. In fact, if you pay attention to the media interviews of the U.S. Treasury Bessent during this period, Trump's fiscal policies are quite understandable: 1. Core belief: The allocation efficiency of the private sector is higher than that of the government sector. 2. Policy objectives: Reduce national debt (the core is interest payment costs), lower inflation, and bring manufacturing back...

Invesco QQQ Trust

How to interpret Trump's tariff stick this year?

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Countdown to the U.S. election, the answer will be revealed on the 6th if there are no abnormalities, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held on the 7th. The National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting will conclude at 8 AM Beijing time. The earnings season for U.S. stocks has just passed its peak, and this week is packed with macro events. Where exactly is the market trading now, and how should we view the future? This article aims to outline the current situation from the perspective of considering responses to different scenarios, rather than making predictions. The first question is to take a look at market trading: 1. U.S. economic data is &#34;slightly cool.&#34; Last week, in addition to the earnings reports from the giants...

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Will the AI infrastructure frenzy backfire, and is the Trump trade coming to an end?

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As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

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iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd

Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X

Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bull 3X Shares ETF

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As a key indicator for next week's interest rate cut, last night's August core CPI data basically confirmed that the first rate cut will only be 25 basis points.Structurally, overall inflation increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which is perfectly controllable. However, core inflation rose from 0.2% to 0.3% month-on-month. First, it indicates that the overall inflation can operate within expectations mainly due to the drop in energy prices.Secondly, the most critical acceleration in core inflation month-on-month growth is mainly because residential costs rose sharply again to 0.5% month-on-month. The sharp increase in residential costs is mainly due to the rise in the high-weighted owner's equivalent rent.Owner's equivalent rent can basically be understood as homeowners' expected rental return on their own properties. This figure also rose during the last interest rate cut expectation at the end of last year and the beginning of this year.What does this mean? People will price their asset returns in advance based on the expectation of a rate cut. In other words, once the expectation arises, even before the actual rate cut, it will produce some effect of a rate cut. In this case, an actual rate cut of 25 basis points may have an effect greater than 25 basis points.Even to avoid a repeat of the inflation resurgence expectation at the beginning of the year, the Fed's rate cut on September 18 is most likely to be 25 basis points.Therefore, the focus of next week's FOMC meeting is no longer how many basis points the rate cut will be, but the guidance on the future path and any wording that may further lean toward protecting employment under a 25-basis-point rate cut.In this context, considering that the market was still speculating and pricing in the possibility of a 50-basis-point rate cut, this possibility is now basically gone. Bond prices may need to give back some gains for $iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US).Overall, with low inflation risks, interest-rate-sensitive sectors reacted sensitively after the expectation of lower interest rates emerged, indicating a high possibility of a soft landing for the economy, which is actually favorable for equity assets. $S&amp;P 500(.SPX.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US)

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