Direxion Tech Bear 3X

Oil just settled above $100 while the Nasdaq closed out its worst week since June

Brent crude touched $110 a barrel for the first time since May and settled up 3.7% at $109.86, its highest close since May 19, per Reuters

WTI settled up 3.5% at $101.41, the highest since September 17

The jump came as attacks around the Strait of Hormuz surged over the past 10 days, a missile was intercepted near Saudi Arabia's Yanbu export port, and US lawmakers moved to block the Russia diesel deal. Crude is now up more than 70% this year per Bloomberg

Stocks went the other way. The Nasdaq fell 2.1% today and 4.5% on the week, and the S&P 500 lost about 1.1% today and 1.95% on the week. The Dow slipped 0.3% but still finished the week up 0.7%

Under the surface it was a full rotation. Tech $XLK fell 7.7% this week while energy $XLE rose 4.9%, with $ConocoPhillips(COP.US) up 9.3%, $Chevron(CVX.US) up 6.1% and $ExxonMobil(XOM.US) up 5.9%

$Chevron(CVX.US), $ConocoPhillips(COP.US), $Shell(SHEL.US), $BP PLC-Spons(BP.US), $APA(APA.US) and $Suncor Energy(SU.US) all hit new 52 week highs today, along with payments giants $Visa(V.US) and $Mastercard(MA.US). Health care also climbed to record highs

Oil above $100, a 10 year yield near 5% and two hot inflation prints in one week is a rough mix for the long duration AI names that led this market. The money is moving to companies that earn cash at today's prices instead of tomorrow's promises, and next week's $Tesla(TSLA.US), $Netflix(NFLX.US) and $Meta Platforms(META.US) earnings are big tech's first real shot at winning it back

Source: StockMarket.News

$SPY looks good, no problem. But my concern is this.

7 stocks still = 34% of the S&P 500. Higher concentration than the 2000 tech peak (~24%).

I got June stats from my agent:

$2.3T erased from Mag 7

MAGS ETF: $700M outflows, worst month since launch

6 of 7 names in double digit drawdowns

YTD split:

S&P 493: +13.7%

Mag 7 basket: -6.6%

The other 493 stocks carried 96% of index returns.

Where money rotated:

LEADING: Healthcare (XLV), Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI)

LAGGING: Technology (XLK), Energy (XLE)

S&P 493 earnings growing ~20% in Q2.

Mag 7 growth slowing.

This is why I keep emphasizing on $RSP gives a better picture than $SPY. Equal weights are a better read IMHO.