Taiwan Semiconductor

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Context：

With Nvidia’s Q2 earnings taking center stage, investors are prepping their portfolios, and I‘m no exception. Sensing a deep pullback across upstream AI hardware, I knew I needed to derisk.

Action：

Early last week, I completely exited my upstream AI holdings—including optical comms, HBM memory, and TSM—finally dumping my last NVDA position on Friday at $215.

Why：

Partly to lock in profits before institutions do, but mostly because market sentiment feels wildly fragmented. My focus is pure capital preservation right now: I’d much rather miss a potential rally than lose my principal!

Micron and SanDisk get all the memory headlines but the Intel angle from Hot Chips is more interesting long term. SK Hynix confirmed it's evaluating Intel's EMIB packaging for next gen HBM, mainly to diversify away from being fully dependent on TSMC's CoWoS capacity. This is still R&D stage, not a signed supply deal, so don't expect revenue from it for years. But if it goes anywhere, it's a real signal that Intel Foundry can win credibility from a company that has zero reason to help a rival unless the tech and pricing actually work. INTC is still down over 35 percent from its 2026 high even after this week's news.

Prediction: Apple will again be first to market with TSMC’s newest process technology when the 2nm M6 Mac mini becomes available Sept. 22.

Source: Dan Nystedt

Japan will invest another ¥150 billion yen (US$940M) into chip foundry startup Rapidus, which aims to begin 2nm chip production in 2027, media report, adding the government has already invested ¥250 billion in Rapidus, and plans to provide ¥2.4 trillion in R&D aid. It is also considering another ¥300 billion in aid. In addition, three major Japanese banks will provide ¥2 trillion in loans to Rapidus, with the government guaranteeing 80% of the loans. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $SSNLF #Rapidus

Source: Dan Nystedt

The news of brand-new Xring O3 chip built by TSMC , officially announced by Xiaomi, on the advanced 3nm process for its upcoming flagship foldable phone means that Xiaomi will be less reliant on Qualcomm.

Xiaomi will also has the fuller control over premium performance and becomes a true silicon competitor to Apple and Samsung. I see it as a great news for Xiaomi! 🎉

On the other hand, Gold has touched $4,700! Many traders are pricing in a dovish tone from Kevin Warsh. This means that rates may stay on hold or even head lower ahead of the US midterm elections 😆.

₿ Bitcoin hit $81.2K this morning! Some forecasts say $100K is coming soon. But my personal view: don’t chase it. Let the market breathe first. Patience pays! 🧘😊

A buddy asked me to do a post on how to analyze a specific asset.

Here's a quick overview: Buffett, Munger, and Aswath Damodaran have all explained the methodology clearly.

1. Buying stocks is buying the company and its future cash flows.

2. Key areas to evaluate: business model (sustainability of profitability), moat, team culture (long-term viability), and the CEO (integrity and problem-solving skills).

For example:

1. I buy $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) because I believe it has a strong moat and sustainable profitability.

2. For $Tesla(TSLA.US), I'm bullish on the future business models of Robotaxis and humanoid robots, as well as Elon Musk as CEO; he has overcome countless challenges over the years and will continue to do so. The same logic applies to $SpaceX(SPCX.US).

3. With $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) and $Amazon(AMZN.US), I'm betting on Cloud + AI and their ability to generate profits in the AI era.

I won't list every example, but the core idea is believing in the company's products and its future earning power.

Understanding this means that when volatility hits, you still stand by your thesis and happily add to your position 🤔

Xiaomi, the China smartphone giant, launched a new smartphone chip, the Xring O3, designed with Arm CPU and GPU cores and built by TSMC on 3nm, media report, adding the new chips mean lost sales for off-the-shelf chips like those made by Qualcomm and MediaTek. $Arm(ARM.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) #xiaomi #mediatek #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

Even as semicon sector takes a beating, chips is still doing relatively ok. This tells you there is still healthy confidence in chips related stocks. Anything between earnings calls are all noise. Stay vested!

SK Hynix confirmed it will use Intel’s EMIB advanced packaging for next-gen HBM memory chips, joining Apple, MediaTek and other top TSMC clients in a win for Intel, media report, adding the victory is mainly due to the continued shortage of TSMC’s CoWoS capacity. $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

I know everyone's focused on Nancy Pelosi copytraders sending $Bloom Energy(BE.US) up 11.83%. Or Trump...

Rumor: TSMC will spend NT$30 billion (US$940B) to buy two display panel plants from AUO and transform them into large-size advanced packaging plants (CoPoS and FOPLP), media report, adding the purchases are part of TSMC’s transformation of the Central Taiwan Science Park into a comprehensive ecosystem for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), from 1.4nm (A14) fabs already under construction to these packaging plants. TSMC teams are doing on-site plant audits now, and if a deal can be reached soon, could have them cleared by end-1Q27. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) #semiconductors #CPO #optics

Source: Dan Nystedt

Rumor: Taiwan’s Largan Precision is set to join Nvidia’s optical communications supply chain after completing end-to-end CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) module development, media report.

Source: Dan Nystedt

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang touched down in Taiwan on Sunday for a brief visit, leaving after a few hours, media report, adding it’s his 3rd visit this year and comes just ahead of Nvidia’s earnings call this week. Media speculate the trip is personal as his itinerary was kept confidential, though also say there is much business to discuss with TSMC and other suppliers. He was photographed buying steamed buns in Taipei. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors #AIservers

Source: Dan Nystedt

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

1️⃣ After I bought TSM, the stock has worked in my favour - my remaining position is up to +USD78 currently valued at USD1260 with TSM trading around USD416.

2️⃣ I actually did trim - I sold USD3935 worth, locking in gains in part of the position, while keeping USD1172 net invested.

3️⃣ 🔑The takeaway partial trimming was the right instinct - I de-risked while staying exposed. TSM’s steady uptrend validated patience with the remaining shares which I intended to keep for longer runway⛳️

Taiwan’s July export orders rose 61.9% year-on-year to a fresh record high US$97.94 billion and beating the expected 52.7% increase, media report. The US led all others with orders up 88.9% to $40.79B, the fastest pace of growth ever. Orders for IT/communications products, including servers & networking gear, rose 89.5% to $33.27B on strong AI and cloud service demand, while Electronics Products, including semiconductors and chip manufacturing services, rose 71.7% to $41.32 billion. In August, officials see export orders nearing $100B, up 61.4% - 64.8%. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) #Foxconn #Quanta #Wistron

Source: Dan Nystedt

Samsung Foundry is prioritizing expansion of 2nm capacity and performance over 1.4nm, with the 2nd and 3rd versions of 2nm process family, SF2P and SF2P+ in mass production next year, media report, adding the focus on 2nm will put it in a better position to compete for AI accelerator chip orders. The downside is Samsung pushed out 1.4nm mass production to 2029, from a prior timeline of 2027. TSMC’s A14 process is set to enter mass production in 2028. $SSNLF $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #Samsung #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

Rumor: Intel’s upcoming desktop PC processor, Razor Lake, will use TSMC’s high performance N2X process (2nm), media report. If accurate, it would mean Intel was expanding its use of TSMC 2nm family processes, with Nova Lake to use TSMC’s N2P in addition to Intel 18A. Nova Lake, the next-gen desktop PC processor, will introduce bLLC (Big Last-Level Cache), designed to compete with AMD’s 3D V-Cache, while the laptop version may be delayed until the Razor Lake-HX generation. $Intel(INTC.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

Tragedy struck at TSMC’s Fab 20 as a worker was crushed by electrical equipment, media report, saying the equipment was being moved and started to slide out of control, killing the 22-year old man, who was unable to get out of the way in time. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

Rumor: Intel Malaysia took over some advanced packaging for TSMC due to a surge in orders for CoWoS packaging by a major mutual client, media report, adding ASE, Unimicron, Gudeng Precision and others are also expected to benefit from the move. TSMC is expected to ship more advanced chips as the packaging bottleneck eases. $Intel(INTC.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

When Nvidia announced Spectrum-X switches built with CPO (co-packaged optics) have entered mass production, it named 4 Taiwan firms among partners, TSMC, Foxconn, ASE and Browave as well as China’s leading optics firm, TFC Communication, media report, and multiple firms say their order books are already full through 2027 and expect supplies to be tight into 2028.

Source: Dan Nystedt