The Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise short term interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75-4.0%, and penciled in an additional 25bp hike later this year, steps aimed at containing inflation that will test Fed Chairman Warsh’s relationship with President Trump. “Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the committee’s 2% goal,” officials said in a statement following the move Wednesday, referring to inflation. It was the US central bank’s first rate increase since July 2023.
This goes against President Trump’s wish to reduce interest rates, although the Fed decision was likely in response to the 50% increase in the price of Brent crude since end of February, the result of the US war with Iran, which President Trump initiated. The market reaction was in line with expectations: 10-year TY dropped -5.1bp to 4.95%, and equities held onto earlier gains, with S&P 500 +0.4% and NDQ +0.7%.
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- N
1C 2C 3C
The hike will affect the market if they want a fast down then slow up all the way to election will also be a good but unpopular choice by taking money out of the system by tightening (QT) then go with the popular of keep allowing the yield at high level.
【Market Predict & Win】Fed Night: Hike has finally come?At 2:00am SGT tonight, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by 25 bp, to the 3.75%–4.00% range.For the past two years, the question was “when do...
- K
1A 2B 3B
Fed will hold the rate unchanged and no rate hikes due to upcoming midterm elections and the volatility in bond markets. Sometimes when you are in dilemma situation, it is better to pause, standstill, no action is require just as to please everyone.
【Market Predict & Win】Fed Night: Hike has finally come?At 2:00am SGT tonight, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by 25 bp, to the 3.75%–4.00% range.For the past two years, the question was “when do...
- F
1B 2C 3C
I’m leaning 25bp, but keeping powder dry. If inflation cools sharply or jobs crack, I’d quickly rethink the hike call.
【Market Predict & Win】Fed Night: Hike has finally come?At 2:00am SGT tonight, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by 25 bp, to the 3.75%–4.00% range.For the past two years, the question was “when do...
- J
1A 2B 3B
Midterm elections is coming to town, a rate hike by Fed will be unfavourable for Trump and the republicans. Nothing is free, there is always a price to pay. Good gesture like, by leaving the rate unchanged will be a good returning favour, although all data shown pointing to the opposite direction. Fed can move up 2X basis points on next meeting after the midterms.
【Market Predict & Win】Fed Night: Hike has finally come?At 2:00am SGT tonight, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by 25 bp, to the 3.75%–4.00% range.For the past two years, the question was “when do...
- D
1B 2A 3A
The hike won’t change much fundamentally as it’s already priced in. However if the war escalates or the oil continues not to flow out, or the mid term election turns the president into a lame duck, then the fundamentals have changed and requires a relook
【Market Predict & Win】Fed Night: Hike has finally come?At 2:00am SGT tonight, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by 25 bp, to the 3.75%–4.00% range.For the past two years, the question was “when do...
- N
1B 2A 3B
A 25bp hike is the conventional move if the Fed wants to tighten policy without creating unnecessary financial stress.
If the Fed hikes tonight, some of the previous dissenters may no longer have a reason to dissent because the policy direction has moved toward them.
it's difficult to answer Q3, as some committee members may think tonight's hike is enough.
【Market Predict & Win】Fed Night: Hike has finally come?At 2:00am SGT tonight, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by 25 bp, to the 3.75%–4.00% range.For the past two years, the question was “when do...
- N
1B 2A 3B
【Market Predict & Win】Fed Night: Hike has finally come?At 2:00am SGT tonight, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by 25 bp, to the 3.75%–4.00% range.For the past two years, the question was “when do...
