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The small-cap Russell 2000 index fell 2.4% on Friday, marking its worst decline since November, despite a year-to-date gain of 12.6%. Rising long-term Treasury yields are testing the sustainability of small caps' recent outperformance, as higher rates can negatively impact smaller companies with more floating-rate debt. Analysts suggest that for small caps to continue rising, a more stable macroeconomic environment is needed, including lower interest rates and easing inflation expectations. Improved earnings growth has supported small caps, but many companies remain unprofitable.

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Small caps are still riding high despite latest setback. But more trouble could lie ahead.

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On Thursday, April 23, near the close of trading in New York, S&P 500 futures fell 0.55%, Dow Jones futures dropped 0.57%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.54%. Russell 2000 futures fell 0.66%

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On Monday (April 20) during the New York market close, S&P 500 futures fell 0.16%, Dow Jones futures rose 0.10%, and NASDAQ-100 futures dropped 0.20%. Russell 2000 futures gained 0.68%

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The Russell 2000 index has experienced its best month since 2023, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rising 11.7% in April. Historically, after similar 10%+ monthly rallies, the index has averaged a 17.6% gain over the following year. The current rally follows a correction and is influenced by changes in oil prices and Federal Reserve rate expectations. Analysts suggest that while initial gains may not be sustained, the outlook for small caps remains positive in the medium to long term, with potential targets set higher.

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Russell 2000's Best Month Since 2023: History Says The Real Small-Cap Move Comes Later

US stocks fell on Monday, ending a 13-day winning streak for the Nasdaq, which declined by 0.3%. The drop was attributed to the failure of the Strait of Hormuz to open, as tensions with Iran continue. In contrast, the Russell 2000 index gained 0.5%, reaching a record high for the sixth consecutive day, driven by energy, industrials, and real estate sectors. Other indices showed slight declines, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and the Toronto TSX Comp down 0.1%. Upcoming US retail sales data and earnings reports are anticipated.

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US equity close: Russell 2000 defies other markets as it gains for sixth day

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By Thursday's (April 9) closing in New York, S&P 500 futures were up 0.56%, Dow futures rose 0.57%, and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.67%. Russell 2000 futures climbed 0.62%

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Recent declines in major stock indexes, including the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000, have raised questions about the significance of a 10% correction threshold. Historical data shows that while this level often attracts attention, it can lead to increased selling pressure and underperformance in the short term. For instance, the Russell 2000 has averaged a 1.57% loss in the two weeks following a correction, while the Nasdaq shows a slight loss of 0.35% in the first month. However, longer-term returns tend to improve, suggesting that the 10% correction level may not be entirely arbitrary.

- Three major stock indexes, including the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000, have recently entered correction territory with declines of 10% from their all-time highs.  
- Analysis shows that short-term performance tends to worsen after these corrections, with average losses and a lower percentage of positive returns compared to typical performance.  
- Despite the initial negative trends, longer-term recovery periods post-correction often yield better returns, although they still remain below historical averages for some indexes.

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Is The 10% Correction Level an Arbitrary Point for Stocks?

Russell 2000 futures rose 3.1%, Nasdaq futures rose 2.4%, S&P futures and Dow futures rose more than 2%

S&P stock index futures and Dow futures extended their gains to 1.7%, Nasdaq futures rose 1.9%, and Russell 2000 stock index futures climbed 2.5%

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Through quarter-end, Non-Dealers continued selling Russell 2k futures per Commitment of Traders.From March 24th - 31st, Non-Dealers sold -$1.2bn Russell 2k futures, marking the 4th straight week of bearish activity for a cumulative -$6.4bn since March 3rd.

ZeroHedge

Asset Managers Remain "Skittish" Despite Hope-Fueled Bounce In Small Caps

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