Garden Stage Ltd

For $SIVE, Q2 earnings from $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) yesterday is strong third-party confirmation of Sivers' 2027-2028 photonics ramp.

Reminder: In June, Sivers signed a collaboration with Global Foundries that puts their lasers into GF's SiPh reference designs and CPO platform.

Read-throughs from $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) earnings transcript:

1. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) silicon photonics revenue to "more than double in 2026". NPO ramp in 2027 / CPO ramp in 2028.

- Important external validation of $SIVE's entire photonics thesis.

2. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) 2027 NPO / 2028 CPO cadence lines up with Sivers' own guidance.

- "Production ready status in 2027".

- Multiple ramps in 2027.

- Sivers estimated CPO SAM of $1.0-1.4B by 2028.

- So GF is effectively narrating the demand curve into which Sivers has positioned their Glasgow ops + Win Semi capacity.

3. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) CID grew 20% sequentially and 62% YoY which is the fastest quarterly growth since 2022. Growth guidance raised to 50-60% YoY.

- Direct demand validation for the platform Sivers plugged into, from their collaboration in June. Growing demand.

- GF's acceleration is the leading indicator Sivers earnings in 2027+ with funnel filling upstream before Sivers seeing the units.

4. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) CEO: "We now expect our silicon photonics revenue to more than double in 2026 compared with the year prior"

- Clean revenue funnel logic if GF SiPho more than doubles and Sivers is the partnered external laser route into GF reference designs.

- Sivers has guided its own laser qualification to "production ready status in 2027" so Sivers captures this as design-in/NRE in 2026 and unit revenue in 2027+, not coincident with GF's 2026 doubling.

5. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) secured 7 new optical networking design wins with customers from transceiver suppliers and hyperscaler players.

- All are a potential downstream pull for external laser content.

- Sivers has been building this coverage independently: $Jabil(JBL.US) 1.6T LRO, $POET Tech(POET.US) ELS, O-Net/Enablence ELS, and legacy Ayar Labs.

- Looks like Sivers' Q1'26 disclosure of an opportunity pipeline up 77% YTD to $799M is the mirror image datapoint to GF's design win momentum.

6. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) have "more than 40 customers today in SiPho" with customers telling GF "I don't have enough secured."

- This just corroborates Sivers' narrative of an InP laser chokepoint and supports their pre-emptive capacity build via WIN Semi.

- If GF customers are scrambling, the matching external laser capacity is just as scarce = pricing power for Sivers.

7. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) could "10x photonics capacity"

- GF ramping PIC output 10x at existing fabs implies a proportional pull on external light sources.

- For Sivers, they need to scale InP output in lockstep or lose allocation to $Lumentum(LITE.US) / $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US).

- Sivers' answer is the WIN outsourcing + Glasgow expansion (historically framed as targeting >1,000 wafers/week).

- Interested to see if Sivers report capex/capacity commitments scaled to GF's 10x narrative.

Just as a list of the main read-throughs you can draw from Global Foundries' comments to Sivers.

$SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers.

Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners.

It could also point to broader foundry allocation/scaling beyond the already announced WIN partnership.

My feedback is that it's very bullish if it's comprised of long-only institutions and there's no heavy discount (30 day VWAP). Otherwise, would need to reaccess if there's arb or short term investors.

This is the perfect time to get ideal strategic investors like $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) on the cap table. As well as focusing on having more US institutional support.

Especially considering $56M is a small check to a single US institution that want photonics exposure (eg. look at Poet's $400M registered direct offering for sentiment).

A lot of it is "it depends when more info comes out", but this looks like a very positive signal for mass production given Siver's fab-lite models.