2025 May Analog vs May 2026 🤔Know Your Auction Da

2025 May Analog vs May 2026 🤔

Know Your Auction Dates!!

Link Below!

Weak Auctions = NO Bueno

This week, we saw a C+ auction, not good.

$TNX and long-duration yields are no longer moving ONLY on inflation data or geopolitics.

The market is now entering a MASSIVE Treasury supply window through May, June, and July.

That means:

MORE 10Y and 30Y debt issuance

MORE duration supply

MORE pressure on auctions to clear successfully!

And if demand is weak like this week!

Yields MUST rise until buyers step in.

The market’s message right now:

> “If inflation stays sticky, oil remains elevated, and deficits keep expanding… we want MORE compensation to lock money up for 10–30 years.”

Key Treasury Supply Clusters Ahead:

🗓 MAY

• May 20 → 20Y Bond

• May 27 → 2Y FRN + 5Y Note

• May 28 → 7Y Note

🗓 JUNE

• June 9 → 3Y Note

• June 10 → 10Y Note

• June 11 → 30Y Bond

• June 16 → 20Y Bond

• June 18 → 5Y TIPS + FRN

• June 24–25 → 2Y / 5Y / 7Y Cluster

🗓 JULY

• Continued bill issuance + quarterly refunding pressure building

Why this matters:

Weak auctions → Higher yields required → Financial conditions tighten → Mortgage rates rise → Equities face pressure → Treasury must offer EVEN MORE yield

That’s the current Doom Loop.

And right now the market is watching:

Bid-to-cover ratios

Foreign buyer demand

Auction tails

Dealer take-downs

Oil prices

CPI/PPI inflation data

The 10Y is the benchmark growth/inflation signal.

The 30Y is the long-term confidence signal.

If auction demand stabilizes? Yields can reverse fast.

But if inflation + oil + weak demand continue?

The market may FORCE rates even higher before buyers finally step in.

For what it's worth, last year we had this spike May 13th, May 20th to 26th, then calm until mid to late July.

#SPX #SPY #QQQ #Bonds #Treasury #Macro #Inflation #Oil #Rates #FOMC

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