SpaceX IPO: Thinking Through Whether I'd Actually Buy at $135

SpaceX is reportedly targeting an IPO at $135 per share to raise USD 75 billion. If completed at that valuation, it would rank as the largest tech IPO in history. Morningstar has flagged that secondary market pricing already implies a valuation at less than half what SpaceX is targeting in the public offering.

That gap is the question worth sitting with carefully.

The Business Is Genuinely Exceptional

Let me start with what's real. Starlink is a cash-generating satellite internet business with global reach and limited serious competition. The launch business, Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, dominates commercial and government launch manifests. SpaceX has executed at a pace that established aerospace companies couldn't match on their best day. The technological and operational moat is real.

If I were building a long-term portfolio around space infrastructure and believed that satellite internet and commercial launch services are structural growth markets for the next decade, SpaceX is the clear category leader.

The Valuation Problem Is Also Real

Morningstar's observation that secondary market investors are pricing SpaceX at less than half the IPO target is a significant data point. Secondary markets are not perfect, but they aggregate the views of sophisticated participants with full access to company financials. When they're valuing the company at a significant discount to the IPO price, it is usually because the IPO is priced to benefit sellers, not buyers.

At USD 75 billion in equity raised, the company that receives that capital has corresponding obligations to grow into its valuation. If the public market entry price is already stretched, early IPO investors historically underperform compared to investors who wait for the inevitable post-IPO correction.

My Honest Answer

I would not buy SpaceX at the IPO price. The business quality is high. The valuation is the issue. My framework for IPO investing is consistent: wait for the post-lockup expiration period, when insider selling pressure typically creates a better entry point. The business will still be there six months after the IPO. The stock price may be meaningfully lower.