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Long-term Value InvestorSurprise: Will there be a mishap or a pleasant surprise? (May 22, 2024)
Preface: The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of last month's meeting tonight, and after the U.S. stock market closes, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) will announce its Q1 earnings... Will the U.S. stock market face a surprise or a shock?
U.S. Market Update
Last night, the three major U.S. stock indices showed narrow fluctuations: $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US) rose 66 points to 39,873; $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) gained 38 points to 16,833; and the S&P 500 added 13 points to 5,321.
As mentioned yesterday, after the U.S. market closes tonight, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) will release its Q1 earnings. The market generally expects NVIDIA to deliver satisfactory results. Additionally, I noticed rumors that NVIDIA might announce a stock split after this earnings report. I haven’t found the source of this rumor yet, so I can’t confirm its validity. Of course, a stock split could boost trading volume, but such news only provides short-term bullish momentum. The long-term direction of the stock price still depends on the company's profitability.
As for the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, the market’s focus will likely be on when the Fed will cut interest rates... Whether it’s the Fed’s news or NVIDIA’s earnings, both could create turbulence for U.S. stocks. For safety, it’s best to buckle up and avoid being too aggressive.
Hong Kong Market Update
The Hang Seng Index fluctuated within a narrow 200-point range today, almost flat from open to close. It ended at 19,196, down 25 points, with trading volume significantly shrinking to HKD 126.6 billion.
Strategy
As mentioned yesterday, I’ve adjusted my cash/position ratio and don’t have much to do for now. With too many uncertainties, the investment outlook has become unclear. Besides reducing stock positions, I’ve also adjusted my MPF (Mandatory Provident Fund) allocation. MPF is the hard-earned money of Hong Kong workers, and for those who invest in stocks, managing their MPF shouldn’t be difficult. Many workers feel that fund managers exploit their MPF, which is precisely why actively managing it to enhance returns can offset the high management fees.
Regarding the suspension of $XL2 CSOP A50.HK, I found documents on the HKEX website indicating that $XICSOPCSI300.HK, $XL2 CSOP A50.HK, $XI CSOP A50.HK, $FI CSOPGOLD.HK, $FI CSOP OIL.HK, and $XL2CSOPBROKER.HK will be delisted, with the last trading day set for May 20. Holders of these funds should watch for the issuer’s announcement this Friday (May 24), which will detail the residual value and transfer timeline (HKEX documents state no later than June 17).
Stay observant; there’s no need to rush.
(The above views are my own. The investment strategies provided may not suit everyone and should not be seen as an invitation or intent to buy or sell financial products. Securities prices can rise or fall, even becoming worthless. Trading securities may not guarantee profits and could lead to losses. Investors should exercise caution and consider this as one of many factors in their decision-making.)
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