2024 Week 21 Weekly Report
Portfolio NAV at the beginning of the year: HKD 2,307,716
Latest portfolio NAV: HKD 3,250,672
YTD return: 40.9%
Hang Seng Index YTD return: 9.2%
S&P 500 YTD return: 11.2%
Nasdaq YTD return: 12.7%
Portfolio
The portfolio's return this week finally broke through 40%! This is a new YTD high and the first time exceeding 40%, truly moving. It has already surpassed my annual return target of 15-20%. Maybe non-paying comrades don't know, but my current portfolio is actually quite conservative, with stocks that have relatively low volatility, and I haven't even gone all-in yet. You could say I'm using a "1:0" strategy.
Since this is a public portfolio with reference and educational value, I want to show everyone that investing can lead to gradual wealth accumulation. So I'm not in a hurry, nor do I need to strike it rich in a single investment. Instead, I hope for stable annual growth—slow and steady wins the race.
This week, the portfolio started buying a small-cap medical tech stock, beginning to build a position. If the price is favorable, I'll buy more. For now, it's just an observation position.
A detailed review of the portfolio holdings is shared in the Patreon member area:
Hong Kong Stock Market
- This week, the Hong Kong market once again felt like a chronic patient—rising a little but falling a lot. Completely different from the previous weeks.
- That's why I always say a liquidity-driven market is the hardest to predict and operate in, because the ups and downs are dictated by capital.
- In the past few weeks, the rally seemed to need no reason—tech stocks, growth stocks rose, even mainland banks surged. Almost any stock would go up.
- This week, however, it's mostly been declines. Any reason? Not really. Probably just profit-taking after the rally.
- The Hang Seng Index failed to challenge the 20,000-point mark and fell back to around 18,500. Personally, I think this level has decent support.
- My view on Hong Kong stocks is that the overall trend has shifted. It won't be like before, where it kept bottoming out. This time, I don't think 18,000 will be breached.
- On the contrary, *touch wood*, if it falls below 18,000 again, Hong Kong stocks would enter an uninvestable phase. I hope this doesn't happen and don't think it will.
US/Japan Stock Market
- After a minor correction in the past few weeks, US stocks are back on track this week, relentlessly challenging new highs.
- Various AI stocks reported earnings, basically reconfirming that the AI story isn't over. Last month, META and MSFT earnings already showed they're ramping up AI investments. Then, TSM and VRT further highlighted the AI hype.
- So before NVDA's earnings, it had already rebounded from below 800 to over 900. Then the earnings once again exceeded expectations, and now the stock is above 1,000—a historic high.
- The company's market cap has surpassed $2 trillion, making it the third-largest globally. At this rate, NVDA could really become the world's most valuable company.
- But honestly, I don't think NVDA should or will hold the top spot long-term. The real rewards of AI should go to innovative companies that create widely adopted AI applications, not just chipmakers like NVDA.
- Right now, we're in the very early stages of AI, so it makes sense for chipmakers to profit and dominate. The mid-stage of AI will be about downstream companies stepping up. It's unclear who will win, but MSFT, GOOGLE, and META are likely among the winners.
- Back to the market: Expectations now point to a December rate cut, but after a minor correction, US stocks are rising again. What does this mean? It means stocks can climb even without aggressive rate cuts.
- Stock gains come from two parts: valuation and earnings. Rate cuts boost valuations, but this rally is earnings-driven. Look at the biggest companies—are their profits rising?
- Overall, US stocks are in a "win-win" position now. If the economy weakens, the Fed can cut rates. If it stays strong, companies keep competing.
- The only concern is CPI data—it can't surprise to the upside again, or the consequences would be disastrous.
The above is personal opinion and not investment advice.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Vertiv(VRT.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $CG SERVICES(06098.HK) $Petroleo Brasileiro SA(PBR.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US)
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