Likes ReceivedThoughts on the future trend of the S&P 500 (.SPX)?
1. Macro Data: The US May ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.7, compared to the expected 49.6 and the previous 49.2.
The data is not surprising. A more authoritative view is that the ISM Manufacturing PMI must remain below 50 for 8 out of 10 consecutive months to signal an economic downturn.
2. Market Dynamics:
1) Technical glitch at NYSE causes anomalies in several US stocks, including Berkshire Hathaway (owned by the "Stock God" Warren Buffett) (I covered the company introduction in my old public account 4 years ago: Berkshire Annual Meeting, How Much Do You Know About Warren Buffett?), Barrick Gold, and NuScale Power, whose stock prices nearly "zeroed out." This made headlines, so I won’t elaborate. With T+1 settlement, even if you "bottom-fished," it wouldn’t count. The "most expensive" stock causing a "hiccup" dampened market sentiment.
2) Where is the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) headed next?$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)
① Long-term investment logic: My bullish thesis for US stocks in 2024 (S&P 500 Index (.SPX) Investment Logic) is based on fundamental analysis of long-term market trends.
② What about the S&P 500 (.SPX) in the near term?
Defining the pullback: The S&P 500 (.SPX) has retreated from 5,341.88 on May 23 to 5,191.68 on May 31, a 2.89% decline (a 1-3% drop is considered a "routine pullback"). April already saw a "deep correction" (over 5%, a consolidation after the rally since last November).
It’s unlikely to see a second "deep correction" within a month, especially during the Fed’s rate hike/cut transition. If it happens, what’s the reason?
① Economic weakness? No, "soft landing" or "no landing" is the consensus; the market is focused on the timing of recovery.
② Poor corporate earnings? No, big tech’s results are solid, and misses aren’t drastic.
③ Too much profit-taking? No, that’s already priced in.
④ AI bubble? If so, it’s been "bubbling" for over a decade—winners keep winning with evolving valuation narratives.
Factoring in technical oscillations and reversals, I believe this "routine pullback" is nearing its end, and the market is poised for another rally, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) set to hit new highs.
3. Bitcoin (BTC, nicknamed "Big Cake") rallies then retreats: Today (20240603), it briefly reclaimed $70K. On "Big Cake" investing, here’s my trading approach:
This method applies to Bitcoin or spot/futures ETFs. I maintain my view that BTC will remain range-bound before rate cuts and the election.
Investment logic reference: Three prior articles covered Bitcoin’sinvestment thesis (Bitcoin ETF: Investment Value V = 10^(k*lg(t)-b)?),asset attributes (Bitcoin (Part 2): Asset Nature & Crypto-Equity Investing), andBitcoin stocks (Bitcoin Stock ETFs: Crypto-Equity "Second Derivative" Amplifies BTC Volatility).
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