Likes ReceivedSMH, the best-performing semiconductor ETF this year
SMHThis ETF has been my focus this year, and the AI stocks I'm bullish on are mostly included in it.Because NVDA has a high weighting, SMH has significantly outperformed other ETFs this year. Here's an analysis of SMH's holdings:
NVIDIA NVDA: Jensen Huang has been selling shares continuously this week. On June 21st, the "quadruple witching day," institutions rebalanced their portfolios, leading to consecutive declines on Thursday and Friday. Last weekend, I mentioned the risks of the "quadruple witching day" and high premium rates in (Nasdaq Tech ETF (Part 2), Current Investment Thoughts.) and the knowledge-sharing group. Those who read it should have cut their positions and sold in advance.
Next week, on June 26th, there will be the annual shareholders' meeting. Given Jensen Huang's style, he will likely deliver another passionate speech and possibly mention new concepts, which could turn the stock price back to an upward trend.
As for when the Dow Jones 30 Index will include NVDA and replace INTC, it will probably happen after the shareholders' meeting. The exact timing is uncertain, but it's only a matter of time. The Dow Jones 30 Index components represent the leading companies in various industries in the U.S., and NVDA's inclusion is a consensus.
NVDA is one of the three major holdings in my high-volatility USD account this year. Its high market share, low penetration of AI chips, and lack of substantial competitors are the fundamental drivers of its stock price rise. The AI giants' alliance challenging NVDA's position, the "Middle East ban," and Jensen Huang's stock sales are just reasons for price fluctuations and corrections.
TSMC TSM: Both 3nm manufacturing and packaging prices have increased, and orders are fully booked by AI giants. In the AI era, no matter who wins, TSMC will be a winner.
Broadcom AVGO: Following NVDA's stock split path, the split on July 15th is three weeks away. I allocated some AVGO in my high-volatility account two weeks ago, but the entire semiconductor sector dropped on Thursday and Friday, hitting the profit-taking line, so I sold automatically. Stock splits have no relation to fundamentals, but referencing NVDA, it will likely lead to a significant stock price rise, and the market cap could break $1 trillion in the future.
Qualcomm QCOM: In the era of AI phones and PCs, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are bullish on the "NVDA of the mobile industry." Currently, the valuation is under 30x, Snapdragon chip prices have risen 25%, and Samsung has fully adopted Qualcomm chips, so the outlook remains bullish. However, last week's news about Qualcomm's software compatibility issues and Apple's release of the M4 chip made its advantages awkward, leading to a stock price correction.
ASML ASML: A leader in the lithography machine sector, its stock price has risen continuously, breaking $1,000. A stock split announcement may come in the future.
Micron Technology MU: In the DRAM sector, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology are in a "three-way battle." HBM memory chips hold NVIDIA's "lifeline," but current capacity is insufficient, and prices are rising. Micron's market share has increased by 2.3%. Earnings will be released next week on June 26th and are likely to be positive.
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