$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) (Transfer) Semiconductor Weekly: NVIDIA and Semiconductor Industry Update Morgan Stanley (J. Moore, 24/10/14)

NVIDIA

Morgan Stanley conducted a three-day roadshow with NVIDIA's CEO, and the overall feedback is optimistic. The market shows strong interest in the potential for NVIDIA's inference workload expansion, especially the possibility of more compute-intensive inference tasks in the future. NVIDIA stated that Blackwell supply will continue to be constrained in the next 12 months, but the HBM3e supply issues, progress on Blackwell, and the impact of export controls are all in a positive state, pointing to a strong outlook for 2025.

The key comment from management on Blackwell is that it is expected to bring in billions of dollars in revenue in the January 2024 quarter, although supply will still be constrained. Additionally, the different versions of Blackwell depend on ODM suppliers, and these details will become clearer as the products advance.

Semiconductor Industry Outlook

Morgan Stanley expects that the data center (especially AI) and enterprise markets will remain strong, although visibility is lower in other areas. The PC market is performing unevenly, the smartphone market is mixed, and the automotive sector is expected to continue to drag down performance, while the industrial sector is nearing a bottom. Morgan Stanley is more optimistic about AI companies, believing that the analog chip market may show a U-shaped rebound, while the 2025 outlook for semiconductor equipment companies faces uncertainty.

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