The Fed doesn't buy CPI data, the East responds firmly, Trump is facing a complete loss.

1. Review of Yesterday's Trades

Yesterday's post strongly bearish on US stocks, only traded one position $2x Long VIX Futures ETF(UVIX.US), made 12 points. Didn't max out the gains but still satisfied.

The bearish logic mainly has three points:

1. As described in yesterday's post, Trump's tweet about delaying tariffs likely involved insider trading, which undermines the logic behind the previous day's stock surge.

2. The previous day's stock surge caused $Pro Vix Mid Fut(VIXM.US) to drop 35.75% in a single day, the largest drop in history. The market might be entering "excessive optimism," but analysis shows Trump's tariff delay for 75 countries doesn't fundamentally solve the problem.

3. CPI is about to be released, but March's CPI hasn't reflected the tariff impact yet—April's will be the big one. Even if it beats expectations, it won't cause much stir given the current situation.

About the third point, I did think so, but for risk control, I sold 60% of my position at 8:29 to hedge. The data release was indeed shocking—month-over-month was negative—and I was influenced by a pop-up from Jin10 Data saying "June rate cut guaranteed" (strongly condemning Jin10 Data, why push strong opinions as an info provider?).

Plus, the rapid drop made me doubt myself, so I cleared the remaining position—only for it to rebound right after, recovering losses in just 10 minutes.

From this, I concluded CPI's impact was mostly digested. Wall Street reacted unusually rationally to this CPI data, so I re-entered later.

During the session, it hovered around 63-64 for a while, and technicals showed weakening upward momentum, so I sold 1/3 in two batches, keeping 1/3 for potential gains. The final rally slightly exceeded expectations, but following the no-overnight rule, I cleared the rest before sleep.

2. Analyzing the Purpose of This Nonsense Tariff

Long-term, if this ridiculous tariff policy is implemented, the US will inevitably face inflation. High inflation will force the Fed to avoid aggressive rate cuts—clearly leading to stagflation.

Assuming Trump is a person (let's use normal human logic), here are possible motives:

Hypothesis 1: Trump uses tariffs to manipulate markets, benefiting his own interest groups at the expense of the entire US stock market.

Hypothesis 2: Trump is playing global hardball, squeezing other countries. Tariffs are just a pretext—the real focus is negotiation (I wrote about this when the tariff policy first emerged).

Hypothesis 3: Trump wants to use a stock market crash to pressure the Fed into cutting rates, easing debt burdens.

These aren't mutually exclusive—Trump might be doing all three.

But right now, Trump is close to total failure.

Profit-wise, his son-in-law is blatantly incompetent, and his own dumb comments (publicly saying a friend made $2.5B) might lead to investigations or post-office reckoning.

As for tariffs as negotiation leverage, 75 countries "kissed ass," but the main target—a certain mysterious Eastern power—remained firm. Here's a supportive poster for them.

Last night, Trump seemed to soften, saying at a cabinet meeting he really wants a deal with the Eastern power. The Eastern power was "deeply moved" and issued a new statement:

The Fed ignored him. Trump once said he "couldn't care less" about stock drops—this time, the Fed showed Trump they "care less less." CPI below expectations? No rate cut. Whatcha gonna do?

Right now, Trump is losing on all fronts. The likely outcome: US stagflation, and him riding in a convertible.

Unless... this explains everything.

Jokes aside, what's next for the market?

Same principle: gold and cash first. Stock options are for intraday opportunities only—no overnight holds.

Tonight, I'd say odds are 60-40 bearish/bullish. Personally, I'm watching from the sidelines. Opportunities like yesterday's are rare—no rush to jump in heavy now, or you might lose your shirt.