当美股来敲门
2025.04.17 10:34

Powell became the last straw that broke the US stock market, and the panic index is celebrating again.

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Today's View and Strategy:

From a technical perspective on the S&P 500, yesterday's trading volume slightly increased, and the decline was significantly larger than the previous two days. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment, indicating that a downtrend has basically formed.

However, the S&P 500 has recorded three consecutive bearish candles, and there was a late-session rally yesterday. SPY rose 0.9% in after-hours trading. Short sellers need to control their positions and be cautious of a potential rebound from oversold conditions.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) had already bottomed out in pre-market trading yesterday, with strong support at 105. Intraday volatility was minimal. If the broader market shows signs of recovery tonight, watch for oversold rebound opportunities (though the upside may be limited).

$Tesla(TSLA.US) fell 4.94% yesterday, the largest decline among the "Magnificent Seven" except for NVIDIA. Currently under pressure from multiple moving averages, focus on the 30-day moving average. Since March 25, the stock has repeatedly attempted to break upward but quickly retreated each time. The 30-day moving average presents strong resistance, making it a good stop-loss level, with downside potential to 230.

Gold continued to surge yesterday, but gold stocks like Lao Feng Xiang and Chifeng Gold saw pullbacks today. As mentioned yesterday, the 20-day BIAS for gold prices has reached an extreme level, indicating imminent short-term correction pressure.

$2x Long VIX Futures ETF(UVIX.US) surged 16.28% yesterday but fell 6.52% in after-hours trading. Given the current situation, 50 appears to be strong support, warranting continued monitoring at lower levels.


Market: Powell "Lands," U.S. Stocks Plunge

U.S. stocks opened lower and fell further last night, though they showed some resilience before Powell's speech. ASML's order slump and NVIDIA's export restrictions were largely digested during after-hours and pre-market trading, with intraday movements stabilizing.

However, at 1:30 PM ET, Powell stated that the Fed would focus on preventing tariff-driven price increases from turning into persistent inflation. He emphasized that it was "too early" to adjust monetary policy on tariffs, reinforcing the signal that the Fed is in no hurry to change benchmark interest rates.

While Powell didn't say anything new, his remarks dashed hopes for Fed intervention. The three major indices quickly declined, and despite a slight late-session rebound, the downtrend remained intact.


Chinese Stocks: Lower Open and Decline, Less Affected

The Golden Dragon Index opened lower and declined, closing down 2.72%. However, the impact of Powell's speech was noticeably less severe compared to major U.S. indices.

Among constituents, Zhongjin Medical led with a 9.41% gain, but like Yatsen Holding, it lacked volume support and had a turnover rate of only 0.86%. Be wary of a sharp pullback today.

Yatsen Holding, previously flagged as risky, plummeted 7.91% yesterday.


Magnificent Seven: Collective Collapse

Last night, the "Magnificent Seven" collectively collapsed. Except for Google and Amazon, declines far exceeded the broader market.


U.S. Sectors: Semiconductors Lead Declines

Semiconductors led the downturn, while the energy sector bucked the trend with gains.


Commodities and Forex

The U.S. dollar index continued to decline, while non-ferrous metals posted significant gains.

WTI Crude Oil: +1.59%

Gold: +3.41%

Silver: +1.41%

Copper: +1.34%

U.S. Dollar Index: -0.90%


U.S. Treasuries: Continued Recovery

US2Y: Yield down 1.85%

US5Y: Yield down 1.93%

US10Y: Yield down 1.02%

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