Nvidia's stock price hits a new high. Is it still a good time to enter the market?
Over the past week, the performance of $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) has certainly caught everyone's attention—it's been nothing short of spectacular. On June 27, the closing price surged to $157.75, pushing its market cap past $3.8 trillion and briefly making it the world's most valuable company.
This kind of momentum is enough to make anyone 'heart flutter,' feeling like they'll miss out if they don't buy. I’m even now, some are still asking: Is it still a good time to enter? To address this age-old question, we need to first understand a few key issues:
1. Can it still rise further? Is the fundamental support there?
2. What does the technical analysis say? Is there support?
3. Is entering now chasing the peak, or is it the start of a trend?
4. What risks should we be aware of?
From a fundamental perspective, NVIDIA deserves its rise—it’s got solid substance.
Its Q1 data center revenue soared 73% YoY, contributing $4.4 billion—far outpacing gaming and automotive segments and now dominating the company’s revenue. NVIDIA has effectively transitioned from a graphics card seller to a global AI infrastructure provider. $OpenAI(OpenAI.NA), $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) all rely on its GPUs. Even with $AMD(AMD.US) launching the MI300, NVIDIA’s dominance remains unchallenged. NVIDIA’s forward P/E is under 30x—below its 5-year average—suggesting the rally isn’t just hype; earnings are keeping pace, and valuations aren’t outrageous. Wall Street’s expectations are high: Loop Capital set a $250 target, and Barclays raised theirs to $200. At $157, there’s still upside.
Technically, NVIDIA’s a textbook case: short-term opportunities exist, but watch for pullbacks—don’t blindly chase highs.
The stock just broke past previous highs, now hovering around $157—a classic 'breakout-and-rally' phase. Short-term moving averages are bullish, with strong support at the bottom. Volume is rising, indicating institutional buying. However, the RSI is elevated, signaling potential short-term volatility or correction.
So, is it still a buy after assessing fundamentals and technicals?
This is likely the burning question. My take: It depends on your approach. For short-term traders, position sizing is key—set stops below $150 and brace for choppiness or news-driven swings. Don’t bet on endless rallies; this isn’t a casino—timing matters. For long-term AI believers, 30x P/E for an AI leader isn’t unreasonable. Consider dollar-cost averaging; avoid going all-in and add on dips.
The real risk with high-flyers isn’t that they stop rising—it’s the 'surprises.' NVIDIA’s no exception.
U.S. export curbs on AI chips to China pose a threat—AI demand has offset this for now, but tighter restrictions could spark volatility. $Intel(INTC.US) and AMD are pushing into AI GPUs; while they can’t dethrone NVIDIA yet, price wars or share erosion are long-term risks. The semiconductor rally makes the sector prone to sentiment-driven sell-offs—even without NVIDIA-specific bad news.
Bottom line: NVIDIA isn’t un-buyable—it’s just not for reckless bets.
For potential buyers, remember—
- Don’t go all-in; corrections are inevitable.
- Keep dry powder for peace of mind.
- Define your strategy based on your investing style.
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