The average spending per customer in the catering industry has returned to 2015 levels. What logic has changed?
At yesterday's 8th Catering Industry Conference, two sets of data revealed new industry trends: 75% of new takeout orders this year came from the low-price segment below 15 yuan, while dine-in average spending per customer has regressed to 2015 levels. This isn't just numerical change - it signifies a fundamental reshaping of the catering industry's business logic.
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1. The Consumption TS is Happening
Over the past decade, while prices, labor costs and rents kept rising, dine-in spending per customer regressed to 2015 levels. The core reason is the collapse of consumers' "spending anchor". Around 2015, rising property prices gave people asset-backed confidence to spend more freely. Now with falling home prices and increased economic uncertainty, income expectations have weakened, making consumers tighten their wallets. This forces merchants to shift pricing logic from "cost + profit" to first considering "how much consumers are willing to pay" - a mindset change that's not temporary.
2. Food Delivery Platforms: The 1 Yuan Per Order Profit Target Gets Harder
Previously the industry believed that with order volume growth and scale effects, delivery platforms could easily achieve the "1 yuan profit per order" target. But now cost structures and competitive dynamics have fundamentally changed. Cost-wise, 75% of new orders are below 15 yuan, with platform commissions just 2-3 yuan - often requiring delivery subsidies that make each order loss-making. Competition-wise, the market shifted from "duopoly" to "three-way battle", allowing #2 and #3 players to operate food delivery unprofitably. Moreover, for transaction platforms, 1 yuan per order profit equates to ~3% GMV margin - already decent.
3. E-commerce and Food Delivery's "Low-Price Flywheels" Diverge
E-commerce's "low-price flywheel" works because standardized products + national supply chains allow bulk orders to lower procurement costs and spread logistics expenses. Food delivery relies on non-standardized products + local supply chains - ingredients and tastes vary, making it hard to pressure upstream costs, while instant delivery requires dedicated personnel with per-order costs hard to reduce (sometimes increasing with order concentration). Their core costs differ fundamentally - e-commerce enjoys long-term declining manufacturing costs while delivery faces long-term rising labor costs.
4. Industry Moat: Innovation Following Demand is Key
Previously e-commerce competed on "variety, speed, quality, affordability" while delivery on "coverage and speed" - but these advantages aren't permanent. The real moat now is the ability to "innovate following user needs" - optimizing supply chains for value, improving service quality for experience, or developing new products/models for novelty. The return to 2015 spending levels isn't regression, but forces participants to break the inertia of "subsidized quick money and low-price market grabs" to re-examine business fundamentals.
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