Rate Of Return
Total Assets20251103-Must-read before tonight's market open (Impact path → Sector/Variety)
1. Starting tonight, the US stock market will switch to "winter time" trading hours: Regular trading hours for US stocks (new/North/Hong Kong) = 22:30–05:00 (1 hour later than summer time). Pre-market and after-hours trading will also be delayed by 1 hour; NYSE official trading hours remain 9:30–16:00 EST. Impact: Changes in liquidity in the first hour and the pace of news transmission for A-shares/Hong Kong stocks (Chinese concept stocks, tech, and options volatility).
2. The Fed cut rates by 25bp again on 10/29 and will stop quantitative tightening (QT) on 12/01: Stop letting Treasury bonds mature naturally and instead roll over/reinvest; MBS will continue passive reduction, with proceeds reinvested in T-bills. Impact: Marginal liquidity easing → favorable for long-duration assets, gold, and interest-rate-sensitive sectors; easing pressure on bank liabilities.
3. The US federal government shutdown enters its 6th week: CBO estimates that if extended to 11/26, the permanent loss to Q4 GDP could reach $14 billion. Impact: Pressure on risk appetite/consumption/aviation supply chains; sentiment recovery if signs of temporary funding emerge.
4. The Supreme Court will hold oral arguments on "tariff legality" this week; Trump confirmed he will not attend. Impact: If the ruling limits the president's authority to impose "global tariffs" under IEEPA, auto, retail, and import/export chain pricing and expectations may be reassessed; if authority is maintained, tariffs will continue to cause high-frequency disruptions.
5. US-China "rare earths-tariffs" framework: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US and China have reached a "substantive framework" to avoid 100% tariffs and temporarily suspend rare earth export restrictions, pending approval by leaders. Impact: Volatility in new energy/magnetic materials/defense supply chains; if the framework is implemented, related tensions will ease.
6. Tech controls on China continue to tighten: In April, the US imposed stricter licensing requirements for AI chips like Nvidia H20/AMD MI308; in September, it revoked TSMC's Nanjing plant VEU fast-track (effective 12/31). Impact: Disruptions to semiconductor equipment/foundry/Chinese AI supply rhythms and valuation premiums.
7. China's new "gold-related tax policy" regulations & ICBC adjusts precious metals business: The Ministry of Finance/State Taxation Administration issued Announcement No. 11 of 2025 on 10/31, clarifying VAT/deduction rules for gold; policy and invoice chain effects have raised expectations of higher costs for domestic gold jewelry/wholesale, pushing up quotes in wholesale markets like Shenzhen Shuibei. ICBC announced that it will suspend some "Ruyi Gold Accumulation" services from 11/03. Impact: Increased volatility in gold jewelry stocks/spot gold and paper gold; short-term tightening of bank precious metals business.
8. OPEC+: Small production increase in December and announced a pause on further increases in Q1 2026 (cautious supply management). Impact: Oil prices/energy stocks (XOM, XOP; Middle East oil producer beneficiaries).
9. Ukraine war variable: Trump said today he is not considering providing "Tomahawk" long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine (previously hinted "depending on Russia's actions"). Impact: Narrative resilience for defense, energy, and safe-haven assets remains; short-term cooling of geopolitical risk premiums.
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