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Likes ReceivedBMNR extreme value deduction 1118
Over the past week, market sentiment and the fear index have both fallen to lows, even lower than during the 4.7 tariff turmoil. BTC dropping below 90k and ETH below 3k are already a reality. Under such market conditions, individual stocks have little chance of independent performance. As for BMNR, last week marked the end of the SEC 13F filing disclosure, with many top institutions opening new BMNR positions in Q3, including some big names. This indicates that institutional investors are indeed using BMNR as a means to invest in ETH.
At the same time, BMNR has updated its management team. The new CEO has collaborated with Tom Lee for many years and has a background in Hong Kong investment banking, which opens up possibilities for moonshots and new financing. However, the short-term outlook is not optimistic. Over the past week, BMNR's decline has exceeded ETH's, due to the rapid compression of mNAV premium, dropping from 1.2 to a low of 1.05 within a week. As mentioned in yesterday's post, this is a very dangerous situation because once the premium falls below 1, ATM financing will no longer be possible, and the coin accumulation progress will stall. Last week, only 50k ETH was added, but cash holdings increased from 380 million to 600 million, indicating that the company is preparing for more challenging conditions ahead. Future extreme scenario projections will also consider more pessimistic situations.
Core assumptions: This Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 3.55 million coins, with only 50k added last week—a historical low. mNAV stands at 1.05, also a historical low, with cash on hand at 600 million. Although the average daily trading volume has rebounded to 1.7 billion, the financing quota has not increased due to the decline in premium. Here’s the logic behind my mNAV calculation: the core is the fully diluted share count. The September SCE filing disclosed the share count, which serves as the starting point for all calculations. Based on the weekly increase in ETH and changes in cash holdings, I derive the financing amount and then reverse-calculate the ATM-diluted share count based on trading day prices. This logic is applied weekly, with daily trading volume used for cross-validation.
Currently, BMNR appears to be in a fierce battle between bulls and bears. The bears aim to suppress the premium, pushing the premium of top DATs below 1, thereby further depressing ETH prices sentimentally. In a market gripped by extreme panic, individual stock positives do little to reverse sentiment.
Conclusion: If ETH rebounds to 3.4k, mNAV will recover to 1.2, corresponding to a stock price of 40. If ETH falls to 2.8k, mNAV will drop below 1, corresponding to a stock price of 27. The extreme range is thus 27–40.
The ETH ecosystem narrative is not a short-term trend. My plan to continue holding remains unchanged, though I’ve recently added put positions as a hedge—not investment advice.
$BitMine Immersion Tech(BMNR.US)
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