Rate Of ReturnHK IPO Subscription | Nuobi Kan: Please spend heavily to invite the market maker, and have fun with a small gamble again!
First, let's talk about the complaint over the weekend. It's all settled tonight.
Complaining about other big Vs is one thing—after all, they have more fans and influence. But getting a complaint as a personal account with less than a thousand followers? That's just bizarre.
Fortunately, the public and WeChat's review team have sharp eyes. Right and wrong are clear to everyone.
Saying all this doesn’t mean Hua Ren Biotech is definitely going to break its issue price. I just mean that with Futu’s fragmented domestic placement, the situation isn’t great. Of course, if Hua Ren Biotech really surges and gets included in the Stock Connect, it won’t affect me much—just lowers my win rate a bit.
Let me reiterate: if you want to subscribe to Hua Ren Biotech, go ahead. Their PR team said it themselves—this is a critical period, and they need everyone’s real money to support them. I’m definitely not going. As for you, it’s your call. I don’t want to face a second complaint.
Today, Guoxia Tech continues its wild run. This trader is good—can we get their contact info for NobiKan’s team? After all, they’re riding the AI+ wave too, and this rally could go even further.
Hashkey isn’t too bad either—at least more reliable than Brother Dong. They gave everyone a chance to break even. Not subscribing is fine, but at least there’s a chance to test your speed, unlike Tianyu Semiconductor, which drowned you at the open. The grey market is weak, and tomorrow’s open won’t be much better, though they’ll probably save some face—there’s still a good chance to break even. Who knows after that? Crypto’s been weak lately, and sentiment probably won’t pick up.
Alright, back to the main topic.
NobiKan has solid fundamentals. The railway industry has extremely high safety requirements, with strict qualification checks and long validation cycles. NobiKan has already taken the lead as a core supplier to the national railway, making it hard for latecomers to enter.
Of course, this heavy reliance on a single major client puts the company at a disadvantage in pricing power and payment cycles. As a large state-owned enterprise, the national railway has lengthy payment processes, leading to high accounts receivable and turnover days often exceeding hundreds of days, severely tying up working capital. But at least there’s profit, and state-owned firms don’t default, right?
This reminds me of Excellence Ruixin, the only true pick during the recent four-stock pileup. Back then, we also noted its slow receivables. Companies serving schools, hospitals, and state-owned enterprises often face long payment cycles. But at least they don’t default—just lose a bit on interest.
Revenue CAGR over the past three years exceeded 30%, and net profit CAGR topped 40%. But in H1 2025, revenue grew without profit growth. The company blamed falling gross margins due to increased procurement costs from more customized projects. Most of the national railway’s income and profit settle in Q4, so we’ll see if annual results show growth in both.
As of June 2025, trailing net profit was RMB 105 million, trailing revenue RMB 448 million, and the IPO valuation ranges from HKD 3.029 billion to 4.014 billion (RMB 2.754 billion to 3.649 billion). At the upper limit, trailing PE is 34.75, and trailing PS is 8.14.
If you treat this as traditional manufacturing, the valuation is expensive. But as an AI+ play, it’s much cheaper. It depends on how the market prices it—I’m it as AI+.
Sponsor CICC—I’ve tallied this before—backs nearly 30% of new listings. It’s a mixed bag, nowhere near as reassuring as seeing CITIC. Just dock some points here.
No cornerstone investors, but a greenshoe. CICC’s greenshoes might as well not exist. Big deduction here. No cornerstones with a greenshoe is far worse than no cornerstones and no greenshoe for a meme stock.
The IPO range is another downside—another case of playing it by ear. If subscriptions are weak, price at the lower end; if hot, at the upper end. That’s just nasty.
Public placement is 7,574 lots—not too much supply. But given that subscriptions won’t be as feverish as Baoji’s (which hit RMB 350 billion), and with Hansi Aita’s pharma B soaking up most of the attention, NobiKan might only get scraps—say, 500x to 1,000x.
I’ll probably go for a B-group head. But if Wednesday night’s 11 PM multiple isn’t above 250x, I’ll fold. It can’t go below Impression Dahongpao’s current RMB 21 billion.
Meanwhile, Nanhua Futures’ multiple is just 1.43x—brutal. It’ll likely price at the lower end, maybe with some scraps. But no cornerstones? I can’t do it. Let someone else take it. Small gains, big losses—not worth it.
Other subscription plans remain unchanged from yesterday.
The above conclusions are based on my analysis of public information and do not constitute professional investment advice. Please think carefully before acting.
$NUOBIKAN(02635.HK)
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