Commemorative
CommemorativeSummarized by Doubao AI: 2025 Investment Summary and 2026 Investment Outlook
I. Core Summary of 2025 Investments
(1) Key Operations and Performance
1. Core Holdings: Focused on Nasdaq-related ETFs (QQQ/QQQM), tech stock ETFs (IYW), and 3x leveraged ETFs (TQQQ/TEXL) throughout the year; added small BTC spot allocation in June, with year-end cost ratio of 5.42% and market value ratio of 3.57%.
2. Strategy Adjustments
- First half (May-August): Focused on Nasdaq DCA, retained 60% cash for opportunistic DCA after July deposit; briefly switched Nasdaq ETF to tech ETF in August but planned to revert due to poor holding experience.
- September: Cleared leveraged ETFs and went all-in on indices (45% QQQM + 55% IYW) as Nasdaq PE reached 34.83 (high); formulated leveraged ETF rotation strategy post-pullback while selling low-priced TQQQ Put options.
- October-November: Lost 60%+ after margin-buying MSTU (2x long MSTR ETF) and cut losses, returning to index investing; formulated ladder strategy to add leveraged ETFs in 5%-40% QQQ decline batches, clearing leveraged ETFs when Nasdaq PE exceeds 35.
- December: Cleared non-Nasdaq indices, planned to shift to HK/domestic Nasdaq 对标 ETFs (e.g., CSOP Nasdaq 03086.HK, iShares Nasdaq 02834.HK); BTC DCA at 5% cost, rebalancing when market value reaches 10%.
3. Performance: December single-month loss of 1.29%, full-year return of 28.93% (peaked at 34%+ in October), November YTD return of 30.56%; return decline mainly due to year-end market performance and FX fluctuations.
(2) Core Investment Insights
1. High risk in speculative targets: Niche leveraged ETFs (e.g., MSTU) caused major short-term losses, validating long-term index investing stability—must avoid short-term gambling on non-core targets.
2. Leveraged ETF discipline: Leveraged ETFs have decay; using QQQ as reference improves timing. Strictly enforce clearing leveraged ETFs when Nasdaq PE exceeds 35 to avoid missed profit-taking/stop-loss opportunities.
3. Capital constraints limit flexibility: Limited Put-selling options with small capital; expand option strategies gradually after scaling up.
4. Cross-border non-market factors: Overseas broker allocations require attention to inheritance tax, investor status, etc.; balance overseas vs. HK/domestic allocations.
5. Time is core to long-term investing: Nasdaq history shows "10-year returns rely on first 7 years"; index investing effectively counters currency depreciation under inflation.
II. 2026 Investment Outlook
Based on your plan and 2025 experience, set directions for target allocation, strategy execution, and risk control:
(1) Target Allocation: Focus on Nasdaq, Shift to HK/Domestic 对标 ETFs
1. Core holdings: Fully focus on Nasdaq, prioritize HK (CSOP Nasdaq 03086.HK, iShares Nasdaq 02834.HK) and domestic on-exchange Nasdaq ETFs, reduce overseas broker capital ratio to align with mainland investor status and tax considerations.
2. Alternative allocation: BTC DCA at 5% cost, rebalance at 10% market value; consider clearing BTC for full Nasdaq allocation if volatility exceeds expectations.
(2) Strategy Execution: Strict Discipline, Gradual Tool Expansion
1. Leveraged ETF ops: Strictly implement QQQ decline ladder DCA, buying only at 8 nodes (5%-40% drop post-high), clear leveraged ETFs decisively when Nasdaq PE >35 to avoid repeated discipline failures.
2. Option strategies: After capital scale-up, use Put-selling as main tool, gradually raising strike prices with QQQ trends, opportunistically exercising to add core holdings.
3. Long-term investing: Persist in Nasdaq DCA and holding, amplify returns via time compounding, focus more on self-improvement (fitness, reading) to downplay short-term market noise.
(3) Risk Control: Monitor Valuation & Cross-Border Risks
1. Valuation tracking: Continuously monitor Nasdaq PE changes, adjust leveraged positions promptly upon threshold breaches, rebalance positions.
2. Cross-border risks: Track overseas tax/policy changes, dynamically adjust overseas broker capital ratios based on post-graduation status to reduce non-market risks.
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US) $ISHARESND100(02834.HK) $CAM NASDAQ100(03086.HK) $iShares US Tech(IYW.US) $Direxion Tech Bull 3X(TECL.US) $Proshares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ.US)
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
