$Paypal(PYPL.US)

Originally expected to start a steady rise in 2026, but now the expectation has fallen through, completely becoming PainPal. The safety line at the bottom seems to be disappearing, and $60 has become a distant hope.

The subsequent trend has already started to deviate from the predictable range, and the retrievable information is getting less and less. A stock's reversal heavily relies on future expectations—this is the power of the "pie." But the market has no expectations for it, no big "pie," not even technical updates, let alone product-level improvements.

As an ordinary retail investor, the short-term expectations might be Q4 earnings, a physical banking license, or the push for stablecoins. But in reality, the market seems to have already priced in these expectations. It's unclear whether the negatives have been priced in early or the positives have already been priced in. All we can do is wait and see. If the time cost increases further, consider adjusting positions or hedging with options, replacing the underlying stock.