BMNR Extreme Value Deduction 2.24

Since the sharp drop of 2.5, BTC has been fluctuating around 66k and ETH around 1.9k until now. Software stocks have corrected, and cryptocurrencies, as a software application, seem to have been killed along with them, consistent with the IGV trend. In the past two days, there has been momentum to test previous lows. The market is currently in a state of insufficient liquidity. Whichever sector the AI horror story hits, that sector becomes jittery. This is even more true for risk assets like crypto. It can be seen that the trading volume of MSTR and BMNR has significantly declined over the past two weeks, and other crypto stocks are similar. Last week, the White House organized a third round of mediation, resulting in a compromise version regarding stablecoin yield generation: "prohibiting returns on idle assets, allowing rewards tied to specific transaction behaviors and payment activities." The White House set March 1st as the deadline for both parties to reach an agreement and continue advancing the bill. The smooth progress of a clear bill is one of the few potential positive catalysts currently.

This Monday, BMNR updated its coin accumulation progress, holding 4.42 million coins, with a new addition of 51,000 last week and a cash position of $690 million; the staking amount reached 3.04 million (69% of total coins accumulated). Over the past three weeks, mNAV has stabilized around 1.02. The average daily trading volume continued to drop to around $600 million following the broader crypto stock market, hitting a historical low, which also reflects the depressed sentiment in the crypto market. However, BMNR still maintains a weekly DCA of 40,000 to 50,000 coins. Under the sluggish ETH market, BMNR has become the only buyer institution in the market, and maintaining a stable premium also gives confidence to the market. Since BMNR's full fiscal year settlement date is August 31st each year, the FY26 Q1 earnings report (corresponding to Sep-Nov 25) was already released before the January shareholder meeting. The next earnings report will be the FY26 Q2 report released in April (corresponding to Dec-Feb), which will reflect the actual staking yield achieved.

The current market is quite boring, completely following the broader market. The trend of ETH is the trend of BMNR. If there is no major change in market sentiment, mNAV will also be hard to have significant fluctuations. Continuing to temporarily suspend the extrapolation of extreme value ranges, lying flat and following ETH's fluctuations.

Not investment advice.