CTG Duty Free hits limit-down on a negative surprise; Lei Jun sets '15-5' hardcore chip push | Daily News Recap---

0224 ｜Dolphin Research: Key Watchlist

🐬 Macro / Industry

1. Trump signaled a preference for diplomacy over military action on the Iran issue, rapidly cooling escalation risk as the Feb 26 Geneva talks proceed as planned. The safe-haven premium in gold has faded. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain latent, while US monetary policy is still the primary driver of gold.

2. Anthropic will host a livestream at 9:30am ET on Tue (10:30pm Beijing) to showcase new features for its AI assistant Claude and unveil iterative upgrades. The update centers on multimodal capability and enterprise use cases, marking a key technology step for foundation models globally. This is a direct positive for compute, cloud and AI app value chains, but it also raises concerns that rapid iteration could disrupt existing biz models and market structure.

3. The new 10% global import tariff announced by Trump takes effect today, with a planned increase to 15%, while critical minerals and pharmaceuticals are exempt; any extension requires Congress approval, and legacy tariffs may be refunded. Near term, this lifts global trade costs and pressures export-linked chains, though markets have partly priced it and the immediate shock should be limited. Watch Congress approval on extensions and potential expansion of exemptions; longer term, trade patterns and earnings expectations may be reshaped.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Paramount Skydance (PSKY.US) raised its offer for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.US), intensifying the pursuit of WBD as consolidation heats up across global streaming and media. Top players are increasingly leaning on M&A to scale. Focus ahead: antitrust approvals, deal execution, and post-merger integration.

2.$CTG DUTY-FREE(601888.SH) $CTG DUTY-FREE(01880.HK)

CTG Duty Free hit limit-down in A-shares and fell over 10% in HK, suffering a sharp selloff. The key negative: Beijing and Shanghai airport duty-free tender results were announced and the company failed to win core projects, a major blow to its offline duty-free footprint. These airport concessions are the core profit pillars of its offline duty-free biz, and the miss weighs on ST/MT/LT earnings expectations; the offline growth thesis is dented, dragging sector sentiment.

3.$ASML(ASML.US)

ASML unveiled a 1,000W ultra–high-power EUV light source, a breakthrough that enables critical capacity upgrades for advanced-node chip production. Some institutions estimate this could drive a ~50% jump in global chip capacity by 2030, easing bottlenecks in advanced-node expansion.

4.$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

Xiaomi Chairman and CEO Lei Jun outlined the 15th Five-Year (2026–2030) strategic plan, elevating chip R&D alongside AI and OS as foundational priorities. This extends its 'ten-year RMB 50bn' chip investment pledge, focusing on flagship-grade processors and automotive-grade chips to support synergy between devices and smart EVs, accelerating its pivot to a hardcore tech company.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-shares: Oil & gas E&P, refining & marketing, and energy equipment & services.

HK: System software, brewers, and energy equipment & services.

US: Gold, copper, and household cleaners.

🐬 Watch for Tomorrow

1. Meli and Circle will report earnings; Dolphin Research will track and publish takeaways.

2. US President Trump will deliver the State of the Union at 9pm ET Tue (10am Beijing Wed) at the House chamber of the US Capitol.

Risk disclosure and disclaimer: Dolphin Research Disclaimer & General Disclosure