Just like the internet era, Cisco started out as the shovel seller, but what comes next? Chips must drop in price, to a level that allows more companies to afford and use them, instead of constantly hyping up shortages and price hikes (NVIDIA and its upstream suppliers). This is when the explosion of downstream applications arrives, making commercial profitability inevitable.
Try to understand Wall Street's cautionary logic towards AI.
1. Large model companies are still operating at a loss, with no clear path to profitability in the short term.
2. The money tech giants are spending on AI is excessively large, which could pose risks.
3. If large model companies still cannot see a path to profitability in the future, and tech giants cannot effectively recoup their AI capital expenditures, it will be difficult to sustain such massive capital spending over the long term.
4. That's why NVIDIA's current performance is dazzling, but its stock price remains unmoved.
Solutions.
5. The key still lies with semiconductor companies like NVIDIA to continuously reduce token costs.
Assuming a large model company's revenue is 10 and its cost is 20, with token cost being 10, if the performance improvements from semiconductor chips like NVIDIA's can lower the token cost to 1, then profitability becomes a real possibility, and the entire business model outlined above becomes viable.
6. The core is that large models must indeed keep improving, becoming capable enough for commercial production and operation, and effectively reducing costs for traditional companies.
If the above two points can be achieved, then AI stocks will have a bright future 😁
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)
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