It's indeed a weak rebound!

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) 1、

After analyzing in the previous post that gold is highly likely to decline in the short term after the war, I also suggested in the group that everyone should avoid precious metals for the time being.

Then, in the evening, I cleared the agq position that was betting on a rebound, and last night, I took profits on almost all gold, silver, and copper positions in the US stock market.

I also bought some near-month puts on QQQ and SPY as an insurance strategy for this war. Although I bought them a bit late, the combined proportion is less than 2%, so it can't protect much of the main position. It's mainly to guard against an extreme short-term situation..

Looking at the current trend, the day before yesterday was just an oversold rebound, and last night it fell back to its original state.

The Iran-Israel war has caused instability in the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic chokepoint affects 20% of global energy output. If it cannot be resolved in the short term, oil prices may rise to $100-120.

Therefore, the market's main concern is the potential loss of control over short-term inflation, which is negative for the global economy and stock markets.

In a nutshell, we don't know how long the war will last. If it ends quickly in the short term, the market adjustment won't last too long; if it doesn't end soon, better buying opportunities will emerge in US stocks..

I cleared most of my gold, silver, and copper positions last night. On one hand, options make up too large a proportion of these positions, and the recent market instability is very unfriendly to these high-beta assets, shaking me to the point where I can't take it anymore. Secondly, strategy is more important than prediction. If the war doesn't end soon, I'll have positions ready to respond when buying opportunities arise.

2、

Of course, prediction is also important. The previous post analyzed the short-term trend of gold after the war, which is highly likely to be downward. But how long is this 'short term,' and how much will it fall specifically?

Yesterday, a good friend gave me her detailed backtesting data. Take a look at the chart below.

The conclusion is clear: around the 25th business day after the war is the best buying point for gold.

The war started in early March. For the next 30 days, the trading strategy should still focus on stability!

3、

The war has not changed the underlying logic of AI technology.

I firmly believe this adjustment is an opportunity, not a risk. The focus remains on technology and artificial intelligence, especially around storage, computing power, and electricity.

Expectations for precious metals this year need to be lowered. The crazy, straight-upward-sloping rally mode like last year was abnormal. An annual gain of 10%-15% is relatively more reasonable.

However, this gain has already been achieved from January to now.. Even though I'm still bullish on precious metals in the long term, in the short term, I think it's only suitable for buying on dips, not for chasing highs anymore..

4、

Let's talk about today's few new listings.

I only subscribed to enough of Zhaowei Electromechanical. At the time, the expected normal and reasonable gain was 15%-20%. Later, due to the war, I adjusted the expectation to around 10%. The actual gain was 16.16%, meeting expectations. I sold everything in the grey market, and my recent focus is still on the secondary market.

Next, there's also Meige Intelligent. Like Zhaowei Electromechanical, it doesn't have a greenshoe. By using the rules reasonably, it can be included in the Stock Connect on the first day. Although I didn't subscribe, the probability of it falling is not high, provided there are no extreme situations in the broader market.

This batch might only have Zhaowei Electromechanical and this one that can offer a bit of meat in the soup.