Compared the perspectives of Chinese media and English media on the Middle East. It feels like the pricing of oil and war risks seems a bit off.

Data basis

1. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 25% of global oil.

2. Over 85% of the oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz has Asia as its final destination, with Europe and America accounting for a very low proportion, and the US accounting for less than 3%.

3. Asia accounts for a combined 86.4%, with China at 28.3% (the largest single buyer), India at 14.7%, and Japan and South Korea together accounting for over 20%.

Looking at it this way:

The US has its own oil supply and strategic reserves. With sufficient domestic oil supply, the impact on inflation doesn't seem as severe as media reports suggest. The short-term pricing in US stocks likely includes some inflation expectations and panic sentiment from war risks. The emotional reaction seems a bit overly panicked and intense.

Asia, which can't buy oil due to the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, is the actual party suffering losses.

It's reasonable to guess that rising unemployment will be the norm for a significant period in the future.

Inflation may appear to rise sharply in the short term, but oil is generally controllable within the US.

Compared to unemployment and inflation issues, unemployment will dominate in the second half of the year.

Among the two poor data points that the Fed is watching,

the worse one will be given more attention.

The path of interest rate cuts will likely be measured based on the worse employment data.

The frequent credit issues emerging during this period are actually due to adding too much leverage, causing problems in the capital chain.

After this portion of capital is cleared out, it should be a golden opportunity.

The bet is on the US's continued push for AI construction and the interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.