ATAT: Retail Boom — Is the 'Haidilao' of Hotels Smiling Again?
Pre-mkt on Mar 17, 2026 (Beijing time), Atour (ATAT) released its Q4 2025 results. Overall, the quarter was solid, with revenue in line. Faster retail growth and operating leverage drove a profit beat vs. Street. Specifically: $Atour(ATAT.US)
1) Hold price, manage volume; RevPAR slightly beat. On the core KPI RevPAR, Q4 came in at RMB 336 per room-night, down 0.4% YoY with the decline continuing to narrow. With Atour dialing back promos in the off-season and S/X higher-end mix rising, ADR swung back to positive after two years of declines and beat expectations, while OCC softened seasonally and was mediocre.
2) Higher mix of 'Qingju'. On openings, Atour had a net add of 67 in Q4, taking the total store count past 2,000, with Atour 4.0 (Jianye) and Qingju as the main drivers. Although the company deliberately slowed openings in the off-season, implied signings trended up QoQ vs. Q3; Dolphin Research believes franchisees accelerated year-end signings of Atour 4.0 (Jianye) to capture spring corporate travel.
3) Retail remained in high gear. By segment, hotel revenue rose 23% YoY in Q4, remaining steady. Retail grew 50% YoY; per channel checks, Atour Planet’s conversion from Douyin live and Xiaohongshu seeding hit record highs in Q4, reaching many non-hotel customers, and with Q4 being peak season for down/temperature-regulating duvets, Dolphin Research believes the GMV mix of temperature-regulating duvets increased, lifting retail above expectations.
4) Profitability at a near 3-year high. Benefiting from a surge in higher-ticket, higher-GPM retail products, Q4 GPM expanded by 130bps YoY, while S&M and G&A ratios fell on operating leverage. Ultimately, Adj. EBITDA reached RMB 710mn, up 61% YoY, beating Street consensus (RMB 2.34bn).
5) 2026 guide: +20% to +24%. The guide broadly matches the market’s +21% to +22% growth view.
Dolphin Research takeaways:
First, on the hotel core, corporate travel per-diem budgets tightened. Based on checks, the industry ran aggressive promos in Q4 to protect OCC, such as 'half-price weekends' and 'multi-night discounts', with ADR at mid-scale and above down ~3%–5% YoY.
Atour delivered ADR growth against the tide via strict price discipline and higher mid-to-premium mix, offsetting the seasonal OCC dip, which in our view validates brand stickiness (customers pay for value, not just low price) and shows Atour can avoid the low-price volume trap.
On the faster-growing retail segment, looking to 2026, near term, January official Douyin GMV reached RMB 160mn, +67% YoY. Versus +37% in Dec, growth re-accelerated MoM, suggesting penetration is still in a rapid expansion phase.
Back-of-the-envelope: after three years of explosive growth in the deep-sleep memory pillow, traditional home textile leaders are making memory pillows a strategic core SKU to defend share against Atour Planet. Dolphin Research conservatively assumes pillow GMV growth slows from +40% in 2025 to +20% in 2026, implying RMB 2.5bn GMV.
For temperature-regulating duvets, current share is only ~5% (vs. ~18% for the deep-sleep pillow), and traditional peers have not moved quickly, leaving a more favorable competitive setup. Dolphin Research assumes growth moderates from +86% in 2025 to +65% in 2026, implying RMB 1.4bn GMV. Other categories are assumed to double (non-pillow/duvet SKUs grew 150%+ over the past three years), totaling RMB 5.1bn, or 30%+ growth overall. The market expects 2026 retail GMV growth of 25%–30%, so Dolphin Research sees a high chance of an upside surprise.
On valuation, based on our model, with 2026 adj. EBITDA of RMB 1.76bn and a 15x multiple, the hotel biz is worth RMB 30bn (incl. RMB 4bn net cash).
For 2029 retail, we assume profit grows 20%, with revenue of RMB 9.1bn and an 8% NPM implying RMB 730mn net income. Assigning 15x 2029E PE (vs. 12–15x for mature home textile leaders, with a premium for hotel+retail synergies) and discounting back to 2026 at WACC=11% from Dolphin Research’s DCF gives an RMB 8bn value for retail, taking the combined valuation to RMB 38bn, ~15% upside from here.
Details below:
I. Hold price, manage volume; RevPAR slightly beat
1.1 ADR back to YoY growth
On RevPAR, Q4 stood at RMB 336 per room-night, down 0.4% YoY, with the decline narrowing on trend.
On mix and quantity, Q4 is a traditional off-season and Atour intentionally reduced promo intensity, so OCC fell seasonally.
On pricing, with lodging supply growth slowing, corporate travel demand recovering and S/X premium mix rising, ADR grew YoY in Q4, offsetting minor OCC fluctuations; ADR turned positive, +1.5% YoY to RMB 426 per night.
1.2 Implied signings up QoQ vs. Q3
On openings, Atour added a net 67 stores in Q4, taking the total above 2,000, with Atour 4.0 (Jianye) and Qingju as the main contributors.
Specifically, after model validation, Atour 4.0 (Jianye) entered scaled rollout in 2025, with 49 adds in Q4 (73% of openings), focused in core districts of tier-1 cities. Dolphin Research believes franchisees sped up year-end signings to capture spring corporate travel.
Positioning-wise, Jianye targets both business and leisure, meeting efficient work needs while offering a resort-like unwind. This is a differentiated play into a mid-to-premium blue-ocean segment, also confirming the boom in experiential consumption.
In addition, Qingju 3.0 is another growth engine, contributing 22% of new stores, driven by its compelling value-for-money. Based on checks, Qingju 3.0 unit capex is optimized to RMB 100k–110k per room, with payback under 3 years, appealing to franchisees in non-core locations seeking fast ROI and high space efficiency.
II. Retail remains the growth pillar
2.1 Group revenue broadly in line
Q4 revenue was RMB 2.79bn, +33.8% YoY, broadly in line.
By segment, hotel revenue reached RMB 1.57bn, +23.2% YoY. Continued RevPAR recovery lifted recurring management fee mix, and with the ramp of Qingju 3.0 and Atour 4.0 signings, Dolphin Research expects supply-chain sales to have risen temporarily in Q4 as well.
With fewer company-operated stores, owned-and-operated revenue was RMB 150mn, down 9.8% YoY.
Retail revenue was RMB 1.22bn, +43.9% YoY. Beyond Tmall, Atour’s Douyin live and Xiaohongshu seeding conversion hit record highs in Q4, reaching a large pool of non-hotel customers. Q4 is peak season for down and temperature-regulating duvets, and Dolphin Research believes the GMV mix of temperature-regulating duvets increased, lifting Q4 basket size.
2.2 Retail GPM stepped up
Atour’s Q4 2025 GPM was 44%, up 140bps YoY.
By biz, the higher mix of franchised hotels and the 3–6 month ramp for new franchises lifted labor costs, trimming hotel GPM by 170bps to 35.8%.
For retail, with a higher mix of temperature-regulating duvets and deep-sleep pillows and supply-chain cost collaboration, GPM jumped 390bps to 54.4%.
2.3 Lower opex ratio; core profits beat
On opex, Atour continued to invest in Douyin/Xiaohongshu traffic in Q4 to build Atour Planet awareness, but scale drove S&M ratio down 50bps to 16.5%. G&A ratio rose temporarily on backend system upgrades and talent investment, yet Adj. EBITDA reached RMB 710mn, +61% YoY, beating Street (RMB 2.34bn).
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Past Dolphin Research work on 'Atour':
Deep dives
Jan 13, 2026: 'Atour: How the 'Haidilao of hotels' was forged?'
Mar 4, 2026: 'Atour: Fan-maker in hotels, cash machine in retail — how long can the 'fresh and chic' last?'
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