"Predictions on the Iran War"

When Iran initially blocked the Strait, its real intention was to use military pressure to force negotiations. The blockade was meant to make the US uncomfortable, gain better negotiation terms, draw international attention, and win sympathy in public opinion. It was certain that Iran was determined to retaliate, but at that time, its missile silos, air force, and navy were basically wiped out, leaving it with no combat capability. Otherwise, it would have directly attacked Israel at the highest level, and missiles hitting the US would have been the end. Precisely because it lacked the capability to fight, it could only resort to blocking the Strait, along with drone and small missile attacks on energy facilities in Middle Eastern countries. The clear-headed people within their ranks definitely knew that winning was impossible; they could only strive for good ceasefire terms through talks. There will always be people inside who prioritize interests and won't blindly treat fighting Israel and the US to the end as a matter of faith. So, if things had continued along the previous plotline where only Khamenei died, I think the war would have ended in 1 to 2 months. If Iran was unwilling to open the Strait, it would be bombed until it couldn't bear it and was forced to open it. Once the Strait is open, the war is effectively over for the US, and the US would withdraw. After that, Israel and Iran might be left in a protracted war, similar to Russia and Ukraine.

But now Larijani is also dead. He was the one actually in power in Iran. The officially appointed son of Khamenei is reportedly disfigured from a bombing and is now receiving treatment in Russia, or may already be dead. So now, Iran has no capable political representative to come out and negotiate, leaving only some military personnel prepared to fight to the death. But do they really have the strength? I think now that the entire top leadership has been taken out, it has actually become a disadvantageous factor for the US and Israel.

Now, to break the deadlock in the war, the US and Israel must make a major move within a week. It can be said that they must deploy ground troops with the aim of forcing Iran to open the Strait, either voluntarily or under coercion. Let's hold our positions and wait and see.

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