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PostsDamn, the big profit from Shenghong Technology is gone!
1. The allocation for the five-star-rated new stock Shenghong Technology $VGT(02476.HK) is out.
This time, an unconventional allocation occurred:
The top of Group A crushed everything, securing at least one board lot, with a 42% probability of getting two board lots.
Group B was evenly distributed this time; you need to apply more to get more. The overall winning rate for the top of Group B is less than 50%, which is quite unfortunate.
Brother Cai used to stick to the balanced strategy of multiple accounts in the top of Group A plus Group B.
The advantage of this is that no matter whether the final IPO allocation favors the top of Group A or Group B, you won't crash and burn; you can still get a decent result.
But for Shenghong Technology, looking at the issue size of 83,300 board lots and the super-large fundraising amount (1.75 billion),
Under the combined effect of these two factors, as long as the oversubscription multiple is below 600 times, then under the conventional allocation, the top of Group B is guaranteed to get at least one board lot!!!
Therefore, Brother Cai went all in on Group B for all his accounts, expecting at least one board lot per account.
As a result, tragedy struck. The unconventional allocation for Group B this time led to winning only 2 board lots in the end.
This is equivalent to losing several board lots of the big profit from Shenghong, so annoying!!!
How big is the profit from this Shenghong Technology? You can refer to the discount rate of Guanghe Technology next door.
Of course, whether it can directly surpass Guanghe Technology in the grey market, we can't guarantee that for now.
Guanghe Technology is actually quite strong. Its advantage lies in its stability; foreign investors like stability, so its discount rate has been declining (meaning the Hong Kong stock price has been rising).
Shenghong's advantage lies in its explosive power, which is stronger than Guanghe's, but its stability is worse than Guanghe's.
However, whether the discount rate is lower or higher than Guanghe's, Shenghong Technology is definitely a big profit. Congratulations to those who won the allocation.
2. The other two hot new stocks today, Changguang Chenxin $GPIXEL(03277.HK) and Manycore Tech $MANYCORE TECH(00068.HK), actually performed very well at the close. Changguang Chenxin was a bit higher than the grey market price, and Manycore Tech was only a bit lower than the grey market price.
But a very interesting point is: About 75% of the retail investors who bottom-fished today are losing money!!!
Why does this happen where most retail investors who bottom-fish during a new stock's surge end up losing?
The reason is that both new stocks opened high and went low. Retail investors bottom-fished at a relatively high intraday level.
For Changguang Chenxin today, 74% of bottom-fishing retail investors are trapped, with an average cost of 73.5 yuan.
For Manycore Tech today, 70% of bottom-fishing retail investors are trapped, with an average cost of 19.28 yuan.
Fortunately, everyone is not trapped too deep; only a small rise is needed to break even.
However, there's still some nuance here:
For overvalued stocks, be cautious about chasing highs. Chasing highs now is high risk, high reward. For reasonably valued institutional stocks, you can chase a bit. Chasing now is medium-low risk, medium-high reward!
Although Brother Cai went all in on Changguang Chenxin this time, he also feels that such gains for Changguang Chenxin have already priced in future performance; it's overvalued.
At this point, one should take profits in time rather than bottom-fish.
As for Manycore Tech, the situation is more special, mainly about following the ZHUANG.
This ZHUANG is a bit hard to follow. In the morning session, it once fell to 16.5 yuan. Just when everyone thought there was no hope, the damn ZHUANG came back to pump and tease everyone's nerves.
But bottom-fishing in reasonably valued stocks has a higher win rate. For example, within the circle, it's estimated that Sige New Energy's gain will be between 80%-120%.
On its first day, Sige's gains in the morning session were all below 80%. Bottom-fishing at that time had a high win rate, and it strongly surged to double in the afternoon session.
Actually, whether it's chasing highs or following the ZHUANG, keeping a normal mindset is very important. Don't let your mentality collapse, and you probably won't do anything outrageous.
With a good mindset, in the end, it's just a matter of making more or less profit!
Recent updates from the IPO Private Circle:
"Estimated Grey Market Performance of Changguang Chenxin"
"New Stock Rating + Subscription Plan for Huaqin Technology"
"Estimated Grey Market Performance of Sige New Energy: A Big Profit"
"Shenghong Technology: Five-Star Full-Score New Stock, All In!"
"Subscription Plans with Different Capital for Three New Stocks: Sige, Manycore, Changguang"
"Whether to Apply for Manycore Tech? Just Look at This Indicator"
"New Stock Rating + Subscription Plan for Changguang Chenxin"$HUAQIN(03296.HK)
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